Sunday, September 29, 2013

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TJX - long trade
First what I saw is 60 min consolidation what result with daily continuation pattern. I use that 60 min range action for trading plan and first what we like to see is back to previous daily high what is first target area. TJX have room for more what we can see on the weekly and monthly charts and after previous high next resistance is $60 area what will depends on action after setup (pace and volume).
Trading plan:
Entry:  $56.55
Stop:     56.30
Target area:  $ 57 – 57.50 – 60 area
Type:  Swing trade

Schaeffers Research became just about the 10th set of pundits I've seen talking about "X" being, "USUALLY", the best performing stock in the SP 500 in the fourth quarter, averaging a 23.2% gain with a 90% chance of being higher in the quarter, you can see the rest of them here: FOURTH QUARTER WINNERS AND LOSERS .
Now, naturally, it worries me when EVERY ONE is talking about the same thing, especially when the stock goes up over 10% into the period being talked about, Ya Know, like, it's been built in already?? BUTT, it does have some decent items on it, it's working on kind of a Cup and Handle off that recent high, and an equal move scenario off the $16 lows up to that recent high figure out almost exactly to that 23% gain they are talking about, around $26 or so, sooooooooooo.......... stranger things can happen I guess.
With that in mind, I, COULD, see taking a call spread on it, maybe January???, you can get the $22 calls for about $1.10, and sell the $25 calls for about $.43, so if it expired above $25 you'd make about $2.33, while risking 67 cents, a 3.47 R/R, which is alright.
There's close to two earnings periods and two dividends (a MASSIVE .05 cents each, hahhahahaha) during that period, so there's extra volatility built into it because of that.
Just an idea if you have loose change sitting around.
Of course, if the Aholes in DC continue their crap, the markets may go lower the next couple of weeks, so you could probably pick the spread up at lower levels, but that's the gamble you take. If "X" does drop with the markets it would not surprise me to see it go to the $19-18 "area", AGAIN, and if it did that it would just be a bigger "HANDLE" on the C and H, so I'd still be interested, and would just lower the spread strikes, but if it got below that median $18 I'd probably lose a lot of interest in the whole thing.

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