Sunday, June 16, 2013

Just a little misc. BS here, I exited REM on Friday, mainly because I had picked up three months of "yield" on the stock pop, REM has 97 reits in it and yields 11.60% at the moment.
Now, I, LOOOOVE, Narlly, NLY, but I, HATE, the individual stock risk you get with it, BUTT, and a nice hahahahahahahahaha here, NLY and AGNC make up 38 stinking percent of REM! Sooooooooo, you basically are BETTING on Narlly when you buy it.
ANYWAY, Wall Street is so full of bull shit I can't believe it, NUMBER ONE, they brought REM on the market almost at the EXACT top in the markets in 2007, the two red circles on that chart, and it promptly lost 75% into the 09' bottom, I mean, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they weren't actually trying to rip Mom and Pop off, they were just STOOPID!! And NUMBER TWO, will some one PLEASE, tell me exactly what interest rates have to do with the up's and down's of NLY on that chart............PLEASE???!!! I realize this is the ten year rate, TNX, vs the 30 year, TYX, and they probably use the much shorter term bonds to buy against their long term sells to home buyers, and I know they make the money off the "spread" between the two, so the actual rate's mean zilch, but I see ZERO correlation between them most of the time. The ONE thing I DO see though, is they had a HUGE NEGATIVE spread at almost the EXACT top of the real estate market in 05', that much I DO see, 4.55% on the ten year vs 4.50 on the 30 year, so that was "probably" saying some thing about some thing.

Another reason I bring this up is because of that wonderful new site, http://www.seasonalodds.com/marketforecast/sectors/next-month/, it says that the Vanguard reit VNQ is DOWN in June and UP in July, so I may get back into REM right away, that is, I will based on being the dumb ass I YAM!! Check some of his stuff out, it's pretty interwesting.
Lastly, Springheel Jack has a post up that may end up being a MUST read for years to come about the secular bear markets, brave-new-world-series-1-secular-cycles.

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