Sunday, May 05, 2013

Toni Hansen has family visiting this weekend, so no update from the Friday meeting, but I noted these three as three on her LONG watch list.

Group Schedule
Our group meets every Friday at 4:00 ET. Each session is 90 minutes and begins with a market overview and outlook, followed by long strategies, then short strategies, and finally Q&A and further education.

The Israeli's are bombing the Syrians this weekend, so, naturally, the futures are higher, as Da Street LOVES WAR, it helps the greeting card companies like AM as ton's of condolence cards are sent out for your loved ones that are lost in the bombing, the medical device maker's on the extra mutilations and maiming's, of course the mega cap defense contractor's, etc etc etc, we probably gap up a few thousand points, wad ever.




I found this chart to be a very nice visual look at the upcoming seasonality of the S and P:


It comes from http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/Seasonal/SeasonalSP.php, it's a study of 5, 10 and the last 15 year's of "tendency's".
Ya Know, I'm to lazy to do actual studies like this myself, so I rely on energetic individuals like him to provide it for me, hahahahahahaha! I found it interesting because what it did was confirm my "prejudices", that is, it was not some thing I had ever "tested" out, it was just "feelings" that I had. I always "felt" that the markets tended to go DOWN from May into earnings season in July, which shows up in the red box, and then, contrary to what you might hear from a lot of techie type trader's, I always thought August was a good month to be a little LONG biased, and the green box shows that as the markets tend to rise into Mid-September.
After that of course, we start to DUMP, most likely because Da Boyz come back from their BILLION dollar mansions out at the Hampton's, and take it to dumb ass's like ME that are LONG, hahahahahahahaha!! One more surprising little thing on there is the LOUSY dump we have tended to have in November, once again probably because of Da Boyz taking it to the individual's who believe in the Stock Trader's Almanac's strategy of November being the start of the best six months of the year, so they shell lack any body buying at the start of November. It kind of looks to me like DECEMBER starts the best FIVE months of the year...........HAH!


I was going to make some obnoxious remark's about this claim at Dshort's blog, Little Love for Stocks as S&P 500 Hits All-Time Highs, but I absolutely love his site and the work he provides, so instead I'll just post a chart and let you make up your own mind as to whether there's "Little Love" for stocks. That's my own chart but the numbers come from the NAAIM Survey at http://www.naaim.org/news/naaim-survey-of-manager-sentiment/ . I hardly think that being LEVERAGED to the hilt with a 104.25% weighting in stocks is, quote, "UNLOVED", that was higher than the previous highs back in 2007. The weighting has pulled BAC to just above 80% but it's still as high as they ever tend to get over weighted. I'm probably wrong but it sure appears to me that these money managers tend to be as bad as us individual investor's when it comes to being bullish at the tops and bearish at the bottoms, sigh, wad ever.

Hahahaha, ha ha, ha, this is funny, I was thinking of what that article said above, and it sounded perfectly reasonable to me, that is, the "strategist" he talked about recommending a 49% weighting in stocks, which means they must recommend a 51% weighting in "others", or your hedges, bonds or wad ever. Anyway, it got me thinking about my "weighting", hahahaha, hhhmmmmmm, let's see, 58% stocks, 36% in a Long/Short Hedge Fund, and the rest in misc., like a metals and mining fund that yields 10%, and hedges against the stocks, like puts, sold calls, collars, etc etc etc. 
Of course, those change practically daily, especially the stock hedges, that's just the current allocations. I have ZERO bonds, sigh, god, do I hate bonds right now, until the TLT gets back down to like, well, in the $80's, or starts yielding over 5% again, I won't remotely consider "investing" in them again. 

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