Monday, March 04, 2013

EXCELLENT Long term look at the markets from Break Point Trades, he also gives his 401K timing signals, thoughts on AAPL, etc etc etc:

The weekly $NYSI has turned down, once this starts to trend it tends to trend for awhile. It doesn't mean a pull back has to start right away, it took awhile in 2011 and triggered early before the May pull back last year, the bottom line of course is that it's always better for the Bull's if this thing is trending UP.

The Nad's, the $NYAD's, are all right, they've rebounded after the little drop last week, they haven't cleared the prior high just yet, which is what you want to see, especially when they lead the Index's higher.

If you like to chase stocks higher you might consider these for "continuation" next week, I'll even help you out by NOT taking any of them, every time I take one of them they immediately give it all back.

With 93% of the S and P 500 reporting it appears the earnings "recession" might be over, as earnings are higher than the previous quarter for the first time since the first quarter of last year. With total earnings of $87.96 for the last year the "actual" P/E is 17.26, which ain't CHEAP, but it's better than being over 20 when alarm bell's should start ringing. Speaking of the ANAL-yst (I, WAS, wasn't I???), weren't they guesstimating some thing like $115 for 2012?? John Hussman says they always over guesstimate by about 30%, trying to suck us retails in with their Pollyana out looks. Wad ever, I guess Abbie Joseph Cohen is saying we are going to earn over $100 for 2013, really, HONEST, which is what she's been saying every year since some time in the 1960's.

Here's a completely worthless stat, I was actually doing some "stuff" on JNK when I got to thinking about this, ANYWAY, with Bubblevision yelling and screaming every day about the ALL TIME HIGHS in the IWM, I found it pretty interesting that since the previous ALL TIME HIGHS in October of 2007, the Q's are actually 22.44% higher than that high, while the IWM is "only" 10.41% higher than that high.
I mean, it's fricking wonderful that the Q's are outperforming all those udder Index's since the 2007 highs, BUTT, you have to kind of ignore that they are STILL 44% BELOW their own previous ALL TIME HIGHS of $120.50 set in March of 2000.
I also bring this up because I'm still waiting for them to hit $120.51, so I can get the HELL OUT OF MY POSITION..............................................HAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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