Monday, March 25, 2013

Rocky White had his usual very interesting stat's in his column today, Stars Aligned for New Highs, this week showing that when the SPX is higher after Easter Sunday it finished higher for the year 90% of the time. COOL! I can accept that, sounds good to ME! HOWEVER, or, BUTT, he fails to mention one udder itty bitty stat, that I wanted to check out, and Dat's Da Draw downs you get between Easter and that famous end of the year gain! I'm actually bringing this up in conjunction with my little post about last year being the only year since 1980 that we didn't "test" the close of the prior year, AND, also, because he says "It should be smooth sailing for the rest of the year", just buy the stupid market and do your best Alfred E. Newman "What me worry" imitation. It's hardly any thing BUTT a smooth ride.
The "Y" in the March column means we were higher going into Easter at the end of March, the "N" means NO, same with the "Year" column. I went back 33 years, to 1980, which is as far BAC as BarChart would let me look, we were higher on the March close than the yearly open 21 times, or 63.6% of the time, of those we finished higher 19 times for the year, or, WAAAA LAAAAA, 90% of the time.
The thing I was interested in was his, quote, "Smooth Sailing", for the rest of the year when we were higher at Easter. I put the ones that stand out in the right columns under "% PB", or percent pull BAC, of those 19 times we had some pretty significant pull backs 10 times, or about 53% of the time, or HALF the time. The PB's averaged 14.78%, NOT exactly what I consider "Smooth Sailing", but I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder.
My point here is not so much to say some thing totally stupid, like you should sell and get the hell out, far from it, my main point to keep in mind is that you have about a 50% chance of getting a MUCH BETTER entry point, less than the open for the year in most cases, AND, keep in mind that the SPX finished HIGHER for the YEAR after those pull backs, so you would get your average 14.78% for the pull back, AND, the average gain for the YEAR of 9.42% that he claims you get, for an average GAIN of 24 point 2 STINKING PERCENT!!!!!!!!!
Nothing is for sure, NATURALLY, and with my luck I'll hit one of the only TWO times we didn't finish higher on the year, BUTT, I consider these pretty good odds, which I'll be willing to take should we get lucky and get one of those big pull back years.
SO, if we get a 15% pull BAC (do I have BAC on my mind or what???) this year after Easter, buy the shit out of the SPY, close up for the rest of the year and come BAC and open up on January 1st of 2014, and take your 24.2% PROFITS........................WOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....... good luck with that one.


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