Saturday, February 09, 2013

Permanent Portfolio

Since the rally started last November there has been eight down Mondays and only three UP Mondays, no wonder JTrader went all short into the weekend, hahahahahaha, http://tsptradertalk.blogspot.com/ .

The market timing $NYSI has gone back into a sell signal with a cross of the 10 MA, it's been flat since late January during the rally and is very over bought on the RSI, but it got over bought like that back in July, then got even more over bought in September before collapsing into the November swoon. What's a little more troubling is the negative cross of the MACD, it did it back in July, then made a lower high, although, we are trying to make a LOWER high than the July high, hhhmmmmmmmm.....
The MAIN men, the $NYAD's, are still very positive, making new highs with the major markets. Before there would be any serious problems we would have to get an actual pull back, then head back up and make new highs in the markets, with the AD's NOT confirming, IE, making lower highs, now, THAT, would be a signal to stand up and take notice of.

I like this idea for a "new" permanent porfolio:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1163891-a-new-permanent-portfolio-for-the-21st-century
Portfolio Yield
Weight
Symbol
Yield
W*Y
20%
SPLV
2.99%
0.60%
20%
EEMV
1.25%
0.25%
20%
VCSH
1.91%
0.38%
20%
PCY
4.65%
0.93%
20%
GLD
0.00%
0.00%
Portfolio Yield
2.16%


You know that SPLV yields 2.85% compared to the SPY's 2.06%........ hhhhhmmmmmm.

Anyway, my Idea is:
SPLV

EEM

VCSH

PCY

GGN

The yield on the EEMV and EEM are basically the same, how ever, the EEM trades weekly options, which appeals to me, myself, and, well, Cucca, I actually like it being MORE volatile, and the P/E on the EEM is 11.34 compared to 13.75 on Da Udder one, and the EEM costs 29% less, udder dan dat I like the EEMV..........
OBVIOUSLY, since the GGN moves "pretty" close to the IAU or GLD, I, MUCH, prefer to own the GGN with it's 10.62% yield, compared to ZLICH on those udder things.

Just my thoughts, good article though, although the guy looks a little YOUNG, BUTT, that don't mean he ain't smart.

I actually took a look at creating a Vanguard portfolio with some of the same parameters, this is what I came up with:
VPL- MSCI Pacific ETF, 6.98% yield, follows the "general" market
VEU- All Word X-US ETF, 4.69% yield, tends to LEAD up and down
VCLT- Long term Corporate Bond ETF, 4.45% yield, acts like a bond (surprisingly!!)
BLV- a "real" bond, yields 4.17%
VWO- same as EEM, accept a 4.06% yield compared to the 1.67% on EEM


A Coy Public Suddenly Gets Cozy with Stocks
The last burst of market optimism?
By Elliott Wave International
The public is jumping into stocks after being reluctant to do so for most of the uptrend since March 2009. A bullish sign or a red flag? Well, consider that investors were also bullish on Oct. 9, 2007, just before the Dow's all-time closing high. Just days earlier (the third week of September 2007), equity fund inflows hit an all-time record of $23 billion. See the chart. Read more.

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