Tuesday, December 18, 2012

WOOOOO HOOOOO, THE WORLD IS SAVED!!!! Hahahahaha, it cracks me up, wad ever, it appears the White House is going to get all the tax hikes it wants, while all the "SPENDING" cuts that the other party wanted are basically accounting gimicks, IE, they are using PLANNED increases and saying they won't increase them, the budget will still increase every year over 200 billion more than the tax increases make up. The numbers also don't reflect the CBO estimate of $400 billion a year that Obamacare is going to cost.
ANYWAY, I haven't talked much about the SPY, but it has a VERY clear over head resistance line, and this morning we are gapping, JUST BARELY, over the top of it, at 144.64, which is also above the high made a couple of days ago. It, APPEARS, that we have an INVERTED Head and Shoulders formation, and it points to about $151 on an "Equal Move" scenario. Of course, the whole thing could fall apart after the open, we shall see.
AAPL has been up as much as 10 points in the premarket, so naturally the Q's are flying, BUTT, they are only up .38 cents at 65.93 at 6:30 am MT, and like I've said, they have to get over that $66.34 mark to break out. At this same time stamp, the SPY has dropped to 144.13, back under that line, so, SIGH, wad ever.

I find this chart much more interesting:


We could debate all day about whether it's true or not that the "COMMERCIALS", the green line in the COT data at the bottom, are smarter than the "LITTLE" guys, the blue line, you can get very good calls on this from the "COT Timer" whom I have in the links on the upper left side. Just a quick summary here, starting on the left side, the LG's (Little guys" were buying the BIG contract all the way up while the BG's (Commercials) were evidently wrong as they were selling, BUTT, the BG's had already LOADED up in the Emini, evidently using that as their hedge. The BG's LOADED up on the drop into June, while the LG's sold into the June low, the BG's then sold into it all the way up into the October high while the LG's actually peaked out in their buying frenzy at those same October highs. Then once again the LG's sold into the November low while the BG's where LOADING up, AGAIN. The Emini doesn't reflect the same look, as it appears the LG's LOADED up into the June low and then sold all the way up into the October high, waiting to start buying again, which they have done all the way up from the November lows.
Like I said, you can debate this, but the one thing I can't debate, is that, THE COMMERCIALS HAVE BEEN SELLING LIKE CRAZY SINCE DECEMBER STARTED, as shown in the two red boxes on the right side.
You can go with the little guys, or you can go with the big boys, it's your choice, naturally.


Using a 10 sma with the Bullish percent chart of the Gold miner's, $BPGDM, works, "fairly", well, you do get WHIP SAWS, but what doesn't. Anyway, it's getting close to another bullish cross over, and it, "MIGHT", be time to buy them again.

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