Monday, October 31, 2011

6:00am MT, 10/31: This is ACTUALLY Monday morning, there's been a movement in the FORCE, and I see a lot of talk going on about the, quote, CRASH, in the futures this morning. I'm not going to go over any of the, "reasons", the MSM is screaming about, it don't stinking matter, my answer to them would be why in the HELL did the markets ever rally in the FIRST place!!
ANYWAY, there's actually no crash at all, SO FAR, this has been a very nice BULL FLAG on the 60 minute chart, very contained, and a very typical pull back, as we work off the over bought problems. In order for this to change to a, aaaaahhhhh, problem, we'd have to start thrusting, or implusing, to the down side, so far that has not occurred. 
The MAJOR problem is in the red box, the dumb ass rally has left a VOID, or AIR POCKET, that provides NO SUPPORT until we take it out, and on the SPY chart that would mean a gap fill back to last Wednesday. Now, we, COULD, find support at the highs from last Monday and Tuesday, the upper horizontal red line, which would be logical, but should we FAIL to find support there, then we just about have a LOCK on going back to the lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, around 1220 on that chart. 
This is a pretty unusual "seasonality" move, as today, and the next two days, are, SUPPOSED, to be bullish, when the new monthly money comes into the market. At THIS point, as long as we don't start to accelerate to the down side, I consider it a buying opportunity at the open of the REAL markets. 
My problem of course, is that I  need SUPPORT points to set up my R/R for a buy, so I'm screwed if we stop out in what I consider to be the middle of no where. That high I talked about would be a possibility, other wise I'd have to wait for the gap fill, OR, I'll wait until after the open, hope we make a low at some point, RALLY, and then come back to TEST that NEW LOW, that would give me some thing to trade off of. The, WEEKLY, PP, or Pivot Point, on the SPY is $126.74, I'll watch for support in that area as well.
To flip this, on the SHORT side, if this is all bull shit this morning, and we take off HIGHER after the REAL open, then I'm DEFINITELY going to be looking for a SHORT at Fridays highs, IE, a DOUBLE TOP. I'll want to see NEGATIVE divergences start setting up on the intra-day time frames on the indicators, etc etc etc. Also, if you look closely on that chart, we TAILED the attempts to get over 1280 on that chart, and set up a mini double top at that level, so I'll be watching that level as well, to see if we run into resistance there, and possible set up a new LOWER high. 
Good luck to you out there in La La Land today. 

Only a Bonkers Bull Would Chase This High-Flying Market 
Sure, we are on pace for the best October in decades. But even the most optimistic investor admits you should wait for a pullback before buying. Get Sam Collins' take on the markets.
Caution: Risk is Rapidly Rising
A look at European indexes mirrors the volatility and uncertainty we are seeing in the U.S. Buckle up! Get Serge Berger's take on the markets.
Akamai Heating Up Once More
Akamai, a tech stock that has fallen on hard times, could easily pop 10% to 15% in short order. Buy now. Get Sam Collins' trade of the day.

YUCKO! HAH, after going through a number of "technical" sites, I'm not the only one that feels that way, as most people seem to NOT have much to say, in fact, all you have to do is look at the head lines on the Blog list on the right side, truly a bunch of kind of nothing comments.
Friday was EXACTLY what you would expect, that is, after the absolute baldder dash bull shit on Thursday, sigh, as we had a narrow range POS day as people "contemplate" the next possible move. My GREATEST fear, of course, is that we continue this type of action, much as we did on the left side of this chart, from December of last year into February of this year. The only difference now is that we have a CLEAR over head resistance line that we will encounter at "about" the $132 "area". The problem is that Da Boyz have given up on trying to be subtle, I am referring to the gap on Thursday over the horrendous resistance we SHOULD have encountered at the neck line of the huge Head and Shoulders that broke down in August, the, "typical", MO on this type of test is that we, "usually", will do an actual "test" first, that is, we go up to it, test it for a couple of days, like back and forth, over it and under it, etc etc, then FAIL, fall back, gather some new MOMO, then attack it again, and this time we go through it intraday on increasing volume, with some follow through on the ensuing days.
Wad ever, I'm struggling here to say what I REALLY mean, hahahaha, basically I have NO interest in the indexes right now, ESPECIALLY, if we start creepy crawling higher, as the easy money has obviously been made, for as Bubblevision keeps mentioning, EVERY ONE brought at the EXACT low on October 4th, as all they can talk about is the gains made FROM that low. I mean, I'll keep in the game with some weekly Condor's on the IWM and SPY, stuff like that, but I'll probably spend more time on individual stocks, some of which I'm trying to "manage" my positions in, I'll probably spend more time on Ivica's pick's, and on Harry Boxer's list's, crap like that.
I have, NO IDEA, which way we go here, but I can tell you what I HOPE we do, I'd like to see a pull back, as in, HAH!, like the "market" ever does what I want it to do. A pull back to the neck line around $126 would pique my interest, but I really won't stop slouching in my chair until we fill the gap from last Wednesday, that would DEFINITELY get me sitting up straight. I'd actually try buying it, for as we ALL know, the next three month's are the single most bullish period of the year in the markets. It probably won't start until after Wednesday or so, as the last day of the month and the first couple of days of the new month are "usually" bullshitish, as Da Boyz take us higher in order to fill the 401'ker's and IRA money that comes into the markets on those days, then they, "usually", take us down to try and give the retails buyer's remorse, and hope they sell their shares back to them at lower levels, then they take us higher and give them seller's remorse, hahahahahaha, and hopefully get them chasing the market higher, before they REALLY take it to them. Before I forget it, that stupid Phantom tail is still hanging around on the charts, from Thursday, the REAL low of the day was that thin red line, at $126.61, data for the charts comes from that MOST trusted of sources, the NYSE of course, and the guy that sits in the broom closet in the basement of the NYSE that controls the charts was told to give us that tail in order to completely screw all the "system" trader's, who probably automatically got stopped out of their longs and had the "system" fire off a new short.

Speaking of, "systems", a rather obscure little one just fired off a new buy signal on the weekly charts this week:

  The grey area enclosed by the solid blue lines in the middle of the chart is a Price Channel, set at 21:2, on the weekly charts. The, THEORY, is you go long when we CLOSE above the upper line, and go short when we CLOSE below the lower line. You can see that over the last two years it has a 100% WIN RATE!!! Hahahahaha, I, LOVE, these things, it's only made ONE LONG trade and TWO SHORT trades, but, HEY, they stinking WORKED!! The red circles were where it went SHORT, and the green, aaaaaahhhhh, CIRCLE, is where it went LONG, the week of 9/17 just over a year ago, the, "system", officially stopped out in June for a gain of 15.70 points, but of course at one point it was up over 25 points, Ya should probably use a little, aaahhhhh, common sense once in a while. Supporting the, NEW, signal this week is a NEW MACD and NEW PSAR signal, HEY, the way I see it, YOU CAN'T MISS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! After all, I'VE TESTED THIS THING FOR THREE WHOLE TRADES, WOOOOO HOOOOO!!
I'm not going to bother to recite the TEN pages of DISCLAIMERS for this signal, hahahahaha, just TRUST ME, those TEN pages are sitting around some where.
The BIG, "WHEWS", sitting on there are where it, ALMOST, got stopped out on the signals, as that rotten bastard sitting in the broom closet in the basement of the NYSE was trying to SCREW the "system". By the way, I did mention the, aaaaaahhhhhh, draws downs on this thing, DIDN'T I???
Ok, I'm adding this in, for a little MOE data, I went back five years, the, "system", went short the week of November 5th, 2007, at 145.14, and covered the week of August 6th, 2009, at 85.81, for a gain of 59.33 points, and on the chart above you see the "WHEW" way over on the left side of the chart, well the LONG that it was on came from that 85.81 point, so the eventual gain that was stopped out the week of May 7th, 2010, at 110.68, for an "official" gain of 24.87 points, but Ya know, at "ONE" point it was up 10 more points, like I said, Ya gotta use some common sense once in a while. ALSO, it had a whip saw in May of 08', that shaved some points off that gain in the short, and a couple of whip saws at the WHIP SAW top in 07', but, HEY, WHO IN THE HELL WANTS TO TALK ABOUT WHIP SAWS AND DRAW DOWNS?????

Besides the obvious bull shit on Thursday that NOTHING has changed in that stinking Europe, the, "better", than, "expected", GDP numbers, were, WAAAAA LAAAAAA, complete fabrications and lies by, of all people, OUR GOVERNMENT, as the MASSIVE upswing in consumer spending came EXACTLY where you would, "expect", as they had to spend MORE for GAS, UTILITIES, FOOD, HEALTHCARE, AND CLOTHING,, way to go Bennie, I'm sure glad you are full filling your life dream of run away inflation!!!

I, AGREE, and I also thought this was a pretty interwesting article, it's about the great growth coming in emerging markets, as we get the MACRO and GENERATIONAL shift that comes once in a life time for most inwestors:

By the by, I'm ACTUALLY mentioning this article because it fits in with what I've been saying for a few years, that we will have the THIRD, and, FINAL, leg DOWN, before the SECULAR BEAR MARKET is complete. After all, I SURE as shit wouldn't mention some thing if it didn't fit with what I've been saying, I would look QUITE the fool if I did some thing like THAT, now wouldn't I???!!!!


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