Sunday, October 23, 2011

A Trading Day


I was so bleary eyed this morning I miss took the time when I rolled over and looked at the clock, hahahahaha, I thought it was FIVE, instead, after screwing around for 45 minutes, I realized it had been FOUR O'clock, sigh, I don't know if it's old age, or old HABITS, that is, fourty years of getting up at 4 AM to go to work, but I sure struggle with my sleeping these days, I hardly seem to get two days a month when I feel refreshed in the morning.
ANYWAY, since I got about 14 or so hours to kill, I thought I'd do some thing I haven't done in a while, and go over the "stuff" I do during the day. I used to post a lot of this, but I just don't have the energy any more, and there's just ton's of good sites that DO, DO it, like number one being COBRA, http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/, but, sigh, I get the feeling he's going to go PRO, so, we'll see. One I get in my email every day, is my mentor, Toni Hansen, http://www.tonihansen.com/blog/.
The day starts when I get up of course, which, the LATER, the better, as I don't like waking up at 4am, as that leaves 3 1/2 hours before the stupid market opens, sigh, most of that time I just spend checking the news out, and seeing how Da Boyz are using it to jack the over night futures around, as they rip the retails to shreds in that low volume environment. My REAL day starts the night before (I'm digressing here), as I do what I'm doing right now, which is going over the dumb ass (or GOOD!!) things I did during the day, and trying to get a game plan for the next day. To be honest, I really don't spend a lot of time trying to work on a game plan for the next day, as that can easily be obliterated during the over nights, or even more so when the daily economic news comes out, which is "usually" at 8:30 or 10:00am ET, which is why I "generally" wait until the first half hour is over before I REALLY start doing any thing. The, "NEWS", is not really what the news IS, it's what Da Boyz DO with it that counts, I use it to fade it when it sets up that way, "that way" being that the best fades come when the market goes in the direction of the "expected" number, IE, say we "expect" the ISM to come in great, so we open up and the market takes off straight up the first half hour, the number comes out out ten o'clock, it's GREAT, Da Boyz intraday gap us, and THAT, is a SELL THE WORLD, hahahahahaha, generally speaking of course, as number one, we've already built the number in, number two, Da Boyz gap us to try and suck in people who are to quick on the mouse, as they try to beat the rush to get in on the GREAT number, only to have Da Boyz turn us around, and try and take them out, this can work quite well at times as Da Boyz can, and DO, take us down farther than you can imagine, as they are trying to take those weak stops out, this is some times talked about as the "Locals" testing their resolve, which are the floor traders in Chicago and New York, as they take us down looking for support from some of the institutions who meeced the push.
I'm cutting this off, as I'm off the track, and NEWS is a complete "system" within itself, and very tricky and complex, GENERALLY, I won't trade it, unless it's so obvious it's screaming at me to do some thing, such as a huge gap UP that is involved with the words "EUROPE", "DEBT", and, hahahahaha, "SOLVED", as that's a fade the world set up, for the obvious reason that you don't solve over leveraged problems by adding MORE debt, wad ever. Any way, the first part of my day ends at the close, as in BANG, I'm outta there, unless I fell asleep first (most of us old guys probably know what I'm talking about). I try to get a nap, then I watch the ONLY show I watch on the tube, that being "Fast Money" on Bubblevision, I also watch the option thing on Friday and I've started watching the Forex thing after that. Now, I DON'T watch it to get specific, quote, "trading", ideas, I watch it to see what they are trying to convey,  or how they are trying to "push" the market, as they ALL have agendas, as regards their "positions" at least. Just like that idiot that comes on after them, they are starting to mooooooove the markets, so they actually, "count", usually, as a fade. I hate to get into personalities, but since I mentioned it, I will, I, LIKE, Karen (obviously), Guy, Pete, ALL the option guys, and some special guests that show up once in a while, like Steve Grasso, Patty Edwards, and Steve Cortes, and on Da udder side, I absolutely, positively, CANNOT STAND, Joe, Pete's brother, Dennis (last name start's with a "G"), and Zach, and I'm completely ambivalent about Tim, some times he's all right, but ya gotta wonder about a guy that's pushing for his own show, wad ever. On another note, I almost stopped watching after Dylan left, but Melissa has just been terrific, she's one, if not the ONLY, decent "reporter" on the network, as evidenced by her almost taking the entire network over, hahahahaha, take THAT, screechy voiced Maria, or what ever her name is. I'm cutting this off here, as I feel a "nasty" period coming in, sigh, hard to imagine I would do some thing like that.
Anyway, after the show I do my mandatory WALK, I go up in the canyon and walk hills, very steep ones in fact, as it gets me huffing and puffing, a LOT, and I swear it helps to clear my eyes up, and my mind, some what and be that what it may, or may NOT! I do my errands, come back and THEN do my daily review, usually around six o'clock, I'll also exercise during the day, usually when I'm IN a trade, just to get away from the screen for a few minutes to let it try and work out before I panic, I lift weights, do sit ups, etc etc, in the winter when it's MINUS 20 out, I'll jog around the house. It's also at this time that I'll try and do the post for the next day on the blog, if I feel up to it, which is also part of my preparation, which is why I started the blog in the first place, as it kind of replaced doing a journal, which I was doing pretty regularly in the early years, posting my thoughts on the blog that is, but I've obviously lost my enthusiasm for that part of it, as I just bitch about stuff and things, really worthless stuff, but I'm just not that into it any more, and I'm afraid it's probably going to get worse before it gets better, or until I quit, which may be soon.
That's my main schedule on Monday through Thursday, as I'll shut down after the close on Friday, and work on the review and thoughts ahead on Sunday, which, just happens to be today.

OK, LET'S DO THE CHART AT THE TOP:
Enough of the bull shit, I'm using Friday's chart, NOT because I had three winners out of four trades, but because, WHAT A TERRIFIC DAY, it has almost EVERY THING on it that I LOVE, so I'm kind of using this as a capsule as to what I REALLY like to see and DO, just in case I die and never post any thing again.
I'm going to tell you right off the bat, that because of the dumb ass HUGE gap up, I almost shut down before the open, and called it a day right there, but I stuck around (LIKE, what ELSE do I have to do??), and boy, am I glad I did.
Now, the chart is a five minute chart on FreeStockCharts.com, but it's only one of about a dozen charts I have open, I have some on my IB platform, and some on Ninja trader, but I'm having problems with that one. They are all different time frames and stuff, I use the LONGER time frames in my nightly work, keeping in mind MAJOR support and resistance "areas", trends, etc etc, plus I have a half dozen lists that I have going, like, I keep a list of Harry Boxer's nightly picks, http://www.thetechtrader.com/chartofday/10/2011/20/, and of course Ivica's picks, which I post every day. I use the IB account for my day trading, the Fidelity IRA account for my swing trades, which are Harry and Ivica, and the Vanguard IRA account for my bond holdings, which, hahahahaha, has been in cash for awhile, as I already made my yearly ten percent in them, quite a while back in fact, and I don't quite feel like giving it ALL back!! When I'm in the mood, I'll also use the Vanguard as a typical retirement type of "investment", where I'll either split it between the Junk Bond funds and the regular bond funds (I've done quite well doing that in the past), or a more traditional split with a stock fund like the VOO, and their BND fund, etc etc.
Ok, so what that chart is, is a "Pivot" and Fibonacci chart, you get both of those items on almost ALL platforms, I have a couple on the IB platform, mostly in the longer time frames. Now, this is the IWM, but I also, DO, the SPY and SSO, I, DON'T, DO, the Q's any more, haven't for a couple of years. So we go side ways for like, 45 minutes, YUCKO, we tried to break out at the ten o'clock turn around time, rejected, held the lows, and I, COULD, have taken some thing there, but I'm not "into" it, yet, so we inexplicably blast higher (I, WISH, I would have taken it, hahahaha), and now, I'm SITTING up.
A little digression here, I post mostly the SPY charts, which is what I base my MAIN work on at night, I have more SPY charts open than any other, and I posted yesterday the charts with the BIG red horizontal line on them, on the weekly and dailies, and I also posted a 60 minute chart toward the bottom that shows the same thing. What you see on that 60 min is the MAIN gap down we had on August 4th, the green circle on the left, now, the numbers on that gap was an open of 123.78, with a HIGH of 123.98, I actually have a red line that goes through ALL my SPY charts at that 123.98, I wish I would have posted a chart of it, in fact, I'll post one at the bottom when I'm done here. Ok, so the SPY is attacking that number, ok, but I'm kind of more interested in the Russell, mainly because they've been lagging the other markets, and I "FEEL", that they will go higher in case we BREAK OUT. Ok (I'm getting excited here, hahahahaha, this was SOOOO COOL), so I shit you not, the SPY goes up, and CLOSES at 123.98, hahahahaha, opens at 123.98 on the NEXT bar, tries to take it out at 124.12, REJECTS immediately, and closes DOWN at 123.71, IE, IT'S A STINKING FAILURE, WOOOO HOOOOO!!! The reason I'm bringing this up, is you have to watch OTHER markets besides the one you are currently interested in, ESPECIALLY, ones in which you have a FIRM grasp of the numbers on, as the Russell was NOT exhibiting the same characteristic's, but is going to react the SAME.
Ok, I still haven't done any thing, so in the green box labeled Number 1, you see what the IWM is doing? It's gone right up to it's R2, tailed over it a couple of times, that's TOPPING tails is what I mean, REJECTED, tried again, REJECTED, and gave it up, I, STILL, haven't done any thing. So it goes down, and then tries again, it goes up and either tails TO it, or OVER it, SEVEN STINKING TIMES, IE, that R2 is just a fricking BRICK WALL, PLUS, when you look at the SPY down below, it can't even get back to the first push higher, so, I can't stand it any more and I take it short at the green line, that was the first bar that closed under the prior three bars. I should also insert here that I don't DO, indicators, BUT, the RSI 8 at the bottom was doing a NEGATIVE divergence through that IWM test of R2, which certainly wasn't hurting my thought process. When I say I don't DO them, I mean I don't TRADE them, but I keep an eye on them anyway. Now, I rode this down all the way to the S1 level, as I didn't even hardly get threatened on it, OTHER than the red arrow under the number 1, it had that little three bar formation that tried to get over the fourth bar on the left, which would have stopped me out, but I got lucky (luck is important), and we continued down, in fact it literally GAPPED down under the OPEN, and I exited on the big dumb bar just before R1, hahahahahaha, woooo weeeee, that was a goodie.
Ok, so I'm all excited now, I've got money to work with, WHICH, usually, hahahahahaha, leads to a mistake.  So at 2, we set up a little doji inside bar after the big dumb bar, go down on the next bar, tail it up, and CLOSE at R1, set up a little inside bar green Hammer, and I go, THIS THINGS GOING BACK TO THE HIGHS, hahahahaha, so I take it LONG at the red line under the 2, I actually went GREEN on it, for a few SECONDS, then they turned it around and headed south, and I took the loss with the close under R1, sigh.
Ok, so I'm glad I did as they DUMP the next bar, the first one in box three, and it sets up this kind of weird long tailed red top Dragonfly type of doji bar, and I watch, and we set up this kind of interesting five bar thing, they keep inching down but they can't take the low of the Dragonfly out, inch down, inch down, they set up an almost inside red box, then open and take the low of that bar out at the green line by the 3, and then turn higher. I went for it, as I want to keep my stop as close as possible to the low of the Dragonfly, and, again, I get lucky, for some reason they pile into it, and take us up to the open. Now, I, SHOULD, have exited when we failed to close ABOVE the open on that bar, I consider the OPEN of the current day, and the CLOSE of the prior day, to be two of my MOST important numbers, but, I waited, and waited, I come close to stopping out but we never close out the low of a prior bar, and we set up a pattern at "a" that I KNOW, it's Surri Duddella's "Matching Highs" pattern, from his book "Trading Chart Patterns Like the Pro's", his parameters are for THREE bar's to get matching highs, it's a SHORT pattern, and all four of those bar's at "a" hit their tailed highs at 70.56, unreal as that may seem, which is right under the open of 70.58, which is the blue horizontal line. So I exit, by the way, I want to mention that Suri's pattern ALSO works as a long, which, SURPRISINGLY, he calls it "Matching Lows", hahahahahaha!
Ok, so I'm like, DONE, I got my coin, I'm a happy guy, I'm not going to do shit, or give some away, but I'm still watching, hahahahaha, and because I'm, DONE, I give up a couple, as it pulled back to R1, held, set up an inside green bar, and took off north, you could have taken that with a stop under R1, I didn't, it goes up, test the open a couple of times, then breaks through it, tests that level over by box 1, then pulls back into the last box, Box 4.
I'm DONE, right, ok, so they pull back, and test the open right to the gnat's ass, that's at the second bar in from the left, then go UP, and I go, oh maaaaan, you KNOW, they're going to close this thing above the open, RIGHT! And I go, well, NO, there's no way they aren't trying to get out of Dodge ahead of the big Euro zone meeting over the weekend, RIGHT! So they go, well, YEA, right, and they head back down, they go down three bars, and then take it through the OPEN, and then close back UP, right ON the open, then dunk it a little on the open of the next bar, and then start turning it green, and I said, SCREW IT, I took it at the open of the prior bar at the green line, I mean, I, PROBABLY, should have gone short, with the thought process and all, but my R/R was UNDER the open at that point, if that bar had been UNDER the open, then I probably would have shorted it, with a stop OVER the open, it you get what I'm saying there. ANYWAY, I have NO IDEA what they were thinking, as it blasted higher, I guess it was probably shorts covering ahead of the weekend, wad ever, I exited at R2, hahahahaha, thank you very much!

SOOO, that's just one of my "typical" days............................. yea, RIGHT! Actually, it was pretty strange, considering I was on the verge of giving up even before the open, but shit happens. I guess, if any thing, it shows you should never give up, as you just never know. I'm going to hate it if the market decides it wants to go into it's obnoxious, slooooooooow grind higher mode, that it gets into. We shall see.

Heres that SPY chart, with the $123.98 close and open, pretty amazing stuff it was, a classic example of why you keep certain key numbers around, like, FOREVER!

0 Comments:

blogger templates | Make Money Online