Saturday, October 01, 2011

Sooooooooooo, I'm sitting here this morning watching this two hour video that was sent to me by one of my many trading friends, about this new "Super Secret" trading "system", and since I've managed to crawl back up off the floor and compose myself, I'd thought I'd say some thing about it. I can't reveal what it's about of course, as I NEVER violate my sacred vows with my friends, but this literally floored me, hahahahaha.
So, the first hour and a half the person talks about themselves, how they arrived at the "system", his past failures and success's, and some where in there he took five minutes to explain the four rules of the "system", I mean, basically, that's all it is, extremely simple, and extremely effective, I think he was currently working on 42 winning trades in a row. Ok, so, during that hour and a half, I think he mentions, AT LEAST, two dozen times, how you, "NEVER NEVER, EVER, EVER, VIOLATE ANY OF THE RULES"!!!
Ok, you got that??? Sooooooo, the last half hour they go to an actual trading session, they set up the charts, show the set up they are looking for, explain it in great detail, it takes some time as the audience is asking a LOT of questions, stuff like that, so he gets ready to make the trade, I'm holding my breath, and some one says, well, wait a minute, didn't this little squiggle over here violate like, rule number two, or some thing like that, and I swear to god, he says, "well, yes, but the trade is still valid, because in this case, WE GO TO PLAN B"............................................................................................

You know, if you DIDN'T fall out of your chair, you obviously haven't been doing this long enough. 


OK, soooooo, back to the real world, MY WORK HERE IS DONE!! With the recession call by the ECRI last week, I guess that completely validates the recession call I made last Spring. The call was not made on the oil spike that started in February, thanks to the idiotic policies of Bennie Da Pumper, but more on the gasoline spike, as gas directly affects the consumer, IMMEDIATELY, whereas the oil thingey can take months to work through the "system". Speaking of $GASO, it, OFFICIALLY, has fallen from $3.40 or so at the May high, to currently $2.54, BUT, OUR service station, is, STILL, sitting at $3.70, it hasn't moved one bit since last spring, which is unusual as we "generally" drop after labor day, which doesn't bode well for the future, as we continue to get the drag it will have on the economy, for as so goes Beaver, so goes the rest of the country. In case you think this one horse town is an out-lier, we went to $1.55 just like the rest of the country in the depths of hell in 09'. 
Ok, so moving on, I consider it pretty unusual that the ECRI is calling the recession BEFORE it happens, hahahahahahaha, TRADITIONALLY, they wait until we get the two quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth that signals we are in a recession, before they make the call, and since we just got the latest LIE from the Government, eeeeeeerrrrrr, excuse me, that was a REPORT, obviously NOT a LIE, that said the last quarter, being Q2, was POSITIVE, it means the ECRI thinks that the quarter that just ended Friday, Q3, is NEGATIVE, and the fourth Quarter will be negative as well, so I guess in reality, we haven't even gotten into it yet. 
Soooooooo, with my mandate of "MY WORK HERE IS DONE", completed, what next?? Weeeeeeell, I, GUESS, I'll have to start doing, POSITIVE STUFF, which brings immediately to my throat, a huge YUCKO, hahahahahaha! What I mean is, I guess I should start looking for when the END may be coming, the end of the recession and new Bull market in stocks........................... but, WAIT, the MSM, HAS ALREADY DONE THAT FOR ME, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
The MSM in this case is some outfit called the Wall Street Journal, and they've made the call here already, THE WORST IS BEHIND US................ HAHAHAHAHA, oh god I love those guys! Ok, so I changed the title a little, big deal, in keeping with their mandate, imposed upon them by the people that employ them, DA BOYZ ON DA STREET, they are doing every thing they can to SELL, Mom and Pop, on the idea that the WORST is over, as they state:
"Is it possible that swoon (in August, sic) marked the moment the S & P priced in a recession, meaning that the worst is over?"
And, "a recession doesn’t necessarily have to mean a bear market in stocks."

Ok, so I cherry picked some of the sentences, BIG DEAL, the general idea is there, BUT WAIT, they gave us a table from SentimenTrader to back up some of their findings:

Ya Know, WHY, do they use "MEDIAN", and WHY, do they include the latest drop, WHEN THERE WAS NO RECESSION????? Welp, MAYBE, because if you use the other TEN, REAL, periods, and use an AVERAGE, the average drop is 29.08 percent, BUT, we don't want to tell Mom and Pop THAT........... DO WE!!!!!
I added this in later, but here's ANOTHER of the MSM spewing out DENIALS already:
Hahahahaha, ok, look, I'm just having some fun there, I wouldn't do this stoopid blog if I couldn't have some stinking fun, give me a fricking break! PERSONALLY, I couldn't even REMOTELY tell you what the "markets" are going to do, now that this information is public, but what I CAN do, is SHOW you what the markets did during the last two recessions:

The markets were already in a Bear market before we even got to the recession in 2001, in the red box in the top chart, and then we didn't bottom until almost a year AFTER the recession ended. Then we get almost the complete OPPOSITE, as we just came off of ALL TIME HIGHS in the markets in 2007 when that recession started, and then bottomed several months BEFORE the official end of the recession, so, take your pick, I have no idea. Those boxes for the recessions are approximate, as I got the general area off of the charts at that wonderful site, Dshort, http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.phpI CAN tell you the difference between the two BOTTOMS, in the first one at the top, the SECOND BUSH got us into the SECOND BUSHIE WAR in barely a decade, in March of 03', and you know how much the markets LOVE WAR, hahahahahaha, kill and maim as many of those farmer's in Beaver as you can, WOOOOO HOOOOO! I've mentioned this before, but do you know that Beaver was featured on CBS 60 minutes, as our town lost the highest PERCENT of our population, in the entire Country, to the two Bush Wars???!!!!
Ok, so we all know that War is a LEGIT idea to pull us out of a recession, which it just so happens that is the single most POPULAR way of doing it among the politicians of the World, but the reason for the bottom in 09' is the reason I think that THIS TIME is TRULY, DIFFERENT, it came when our maaaaaaaavelous CONGRESS, on April 2, 2009, forced FASB to suspend Rule 157, and allow all the stinking Banks to take all the BAD SHIT off balance sheet, and LIE about their earnings for the rest of my miserable life!!!!
This ruling, coming out of the single most immoral bunch of bastards in the Country, who just happen to be the RICHEST people in the Country, that being those 562 idiots that reside on Capital Hill in Washington, DC, basically told EVERY man, woman and child in the Country, IT'S OK TO BE A LIAR AND A THIEF!!
And in that very vein, I have, NO DOUBT, that their NEXT move, will be to tell the FASB to suspend Rule 157 for EVERY ONE OF THEIR CORPORATE PARTNERS ON WALL STREET, SO THEY TO CAN LIE ABOUT THEIR BALANCE SHEETS AND EARNINGS FOR THE REST OF MY MISERABLE LIFE!!!!!!!
Sigh, they will probably also BAN every short ETF, BAN shorting, IN FACT, they will probably BAN SELLING, in ANY FORM, and you will only be allowed to BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!

Oh, yea, I was so busy wiping my puke up, I forgot about the chart at the top, have you heard of the MENDOZA LINE??!!! I'll give you one guess where it is, AND THE FIRST TWO DON'T COUNT!!


As if I give a rat's ass, the $NYAD's don't look HALF bad, I mean, for the drop we had the last few days, the A/D's don't seem to be reflecting the same DEGREE of drop as to what the markets had, but, that's a big WAD EVER, that could all change in an instant. 


I haven't brought this up in quite a while, frankly, because the "system" stopped working in 08', IE, it no longer mattered whether it was saying I'M OVER SOLD, but that's the percentage of stocks above or BELOW their 200 DMA. It, USED, to be, that if we got under 20% that was a pretty OVER SOLD reading, and indicating a bounce was coming, in fact, one of my main men, SYSIN, gave me the complete stat's on it when we did that, it actually don't happen to often. This was one indicator that actually did give a POSITIVE divergence at the 09' market bottom, so it DID work in that respect. Of course, it's actually doing a NEGATIVE divergence right now, as it has broken through the August lows, while the, "markets", have NOT, eeeeerrrrrr, YET! That probably can't be to good.
Speaking of my MAIN MEN, thanks to Boyd for reminding me of another prediction I made, that came to fruition,  that being THAT YOU CAN'T TRUST THOSE LYING COMMIE BASTARDS!!!! Hahahahahaha, he was talking about the, aaaaaaaahhhhhhhh, revelations, about the earnings of some of the Chinese stocks last week, like, Ya Know, if you were one of the, aaahhhhh, eeeerrrrr, "INWESTORS", who suckered into believing every thing you heard coming out of that country, well, as that famous guy said, STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES!!
I will say, I was a little surprised at BIDU, but, well, I guess it actually DOESN'T surprise me, wad ever. 

Stock pick for 10/03/2011
Ivica at Xpertstocktrader.com

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