Friday, October 07, 2011

Stock pick for 10/07/2011
ivica@xpertstocktrader.com


My MAIN market timer, http://long-short-timing.com/default.aspx, came out with a note last night. This is a, FREE, service, and you can sign up for the signals on the site link.
Now, I, LOVE, this outfit, he has ALL the stat's on his "SYSTEM" on the site, IE, the "returns", not the actual "SYSTEM" itself, as that's "secret", I've followed him pretty close for about a year now, and I can testify that the guy is FOR REAL!! I'm testifying because of course, there's so many pieces of shit on the WackOShpere that are just lying bastards, and are mainly just trying to get you to "BUY" their software, or wad ever, IE, they have an agenda, this guy does NOT, he's really for real.
ANYWAY, it just cracks me up, hahahahahahahaha!! He has a, "SYSTEM", and as with ANY, "SYSTEM", it gets these things called "DRAW DOWNS", IE, the trade goes against you, BUT, AS WITH ANY "SYSTEM", you have to stick to the signals, ALL THE SIGNALS, or, as they say, your returns may vary based upon the actual results of the "SYSTEM"!
Ok, what cracks me up, is the note is a "confidence" note, he's sent out several of these over the last year, and they almost ALWAYS come when the "markets" go against the call, IE, his customers PANIC! Now, he uses the Q's as his basic signal call, but you can use any of the various Indexes that he gives in his articles, he has been in a very rare "CASH" call for awhile, and he came out Sunday night with a new short call, to short the Q's at Friday's close, $52.49, on Monday's open, which is what they got. Ok, so by Tuesday morning the call is UP almost 5%, hahahaha, a, GREAT, call, but of course, as of last night, the call was DOWN about 3.8%, and the reason he came out with the note of course, is he must be getting a TON of emails from his followers, who are in a PANIC, hahahahaha!!
What happens, is there is a bunch of people that follow his calls, THAT BREAK THE "RULES", and use the "LEVERAGED" funds for their trading vehicle, like TZA, and if you used TZA, by Tuesday morning you were UP about 20.8%, and as of last night, you are now DOWN 17%, just slightly a little more "volatility" than by following the ACTUAL calls as laid out in the "SYSTEM"!
He has the same response to the panic every time, he refers them to the article on the LIMBIC SYSTEM, which is an explanation of the involuntary physical responses that we humans get when we get into panic mode, which is on his page that lays out the Investment "RULES", http://long-short-timing.com/InvestmentRules.aspx.
My main reason for bringing this up, besides cracking me up, is not so much that they are breaking the RULES, or warping the "SYSTEM", but my personal opinion is the bottom line reason they panic, is that they violate one of the most basic of rules, and get out of their "comfort zone", by over leveraging themselves, or not having, or even worse, ignoring, the basic principles of "position sizing". I know this, because it took me a while to figure out some of MY OWN problems, mainly about how to stay in a trade when it's going MY WAY, and not leaving to early. 
ANYWAY, that Q's chart looks almost EXACTLY like the SPY chart below, IE, despite all the BS coming out of Wall Street, they are basically ALL THE SAME MARKETS, and TECH is not any better "investment" than buying some outfit that makes NUTS!
The futures were down slightly ahead of the payroll report, and it came it much better than "expected", and the SPY jumped about $2, hahahahahaha, so those people must be REALLY panicking now!! As I mentioned below, my, PLAN, on a gap up, will be TO SHORT THE WORLD, WOOOOO HOOOOOO!!! This is based solely on the markets being up three days in a row, and then GAPPING higher into resistance, with my "investment" time frame, after the open, being measured in MINUTES, and should not be construed with any form of "investment" advice. 
Good luck to every one out there in La La Land. 

Sigh, pretty much my sentiments exactly: The US Empire, a Tragic Comedy in Three Acts
Was Ron Paul REALLY booed for saying we should bring the troops home, and act more like a civilized society?????

On the longer term, SHORTER TERM, time frame, the 60 minute chart, we are running into some over head resistance in the form of a down trend line, and the 200 SMA. On the "indicators", the STOCH is obviously over bought, the RSI has a little divergence on it the last few hours, as does the CCI at the bottom. "Indicators", don't mean diddly squat, BUT, I pay some attention to them.
The good part, for the bulls that is, is if we get over that trend line then we "probably" go right to the upper DOWN trend line, which is the HUGE $120 resistance "area". If we get through the current trend line I wouldn't say that was the Bear's last gasp, that will come at the main trend line above. If we don't gap above it tomorrow after the Payroll report, I'm probably going to take a short shot at this thing, In fact, if we get a HUGE gap higher, then I will DEFINITELY take a short shot at it.

The daily chart has a couple of interesting little items on it, at the bottom the MACD is TRYING to trigger a BUY signal with a positive cross over, more interesting is the HUGE positive divergence it's trying to put on, as compared to the August lows. It's probably more important for the MACD to cross above Zero, the Histogram is trying to do that right at the moment.
A negative is the RSI is trying to stop at the 50 level, again, it capped the three of the last four rallies, and the one time it got above it, it just barely got above it before it turned down again.Plus, we are coming back into the 50 DMA, again, which has also been acting as a cap to the rallies, we HAVE to get over that, before a sustained move will be made higher.
Good luck to you.

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

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