Monday, October 03, 2011


Ok, maybe I went just a little, aaaahhh, overboard there with the descriptive words, but personally, I find this one of the most amazing charts I've ever seen. One amazing thing is that I find that NO ONE EVER TALKS ABOUT IT! I mean, here we are, the SPY has barely a BLIP on it as far as the recent down turn, and yet BONDS, in the form of the TLT, HAVE HIT ALL TIME HIGHS! In the red circle over on the left side, in 2008, after the SPY had already had a CATACLYSMIC drop of 50%, people, FINALLY, decided that, HEY, MAYBE WE SHOULD PANIC, and they finally started piling into the "safety" of bonds.
I mean, SIGH, I'll admit right off that I completely MISSED this thing, I got into my price anchoring bull shit and just REFUSED to buy them. Another reason of course, is that I'm not buying this NEGATIVE YIELD bull shit, I'LL WAIT UNTIL THE GREATEST BULL MARKET IN HISTORY IN BONDS STARTED, WHEN YIELDS HIT 18%!!!!!!!!!
Hahahahahaha, well, I think I just did a pretty good job of showing you why I'm just about the WORST "Investor", EVER, and I generally have a maximum "investing" horizon of about, aaaahhhh, FIVE MINUTES! Sigh, my stinking  pigheadedness just kills me some times. 
Wad ever, my personal problems don't take away from the fact that BOND investors, who are considered the SMART ones compared to those dumb ass EQUITY gamblers, are pricing in the APOCALYPSE! SOME DAY, TBT is going to be the investment opportunity of a LIFE TIME, that is, if it survives in it's current form. How ever, even John Hussman doesn't think that's going to happen until toward the end of this decade. 

Ya Know, I've always liked Bob Prechter and the EWI boys, you just have to know how to interpret what they are saying some times, like, you can't confuse Bob's MACRO outlook on markets, in which he has a time frame of like, DECADES, with their very short term EWI forecasts, which, by the way, are, GENERALLY, pretty good.
How ever, once in a while I get stuff from them that I just have to say Bob, Bob, Bob, hahahahaha! The, CONCEPT, they are trying to convey, is that the Markets follow Presidential approval ratings, ok, I'll swallow that, but they shouldn't have included the charts, hahahahaha, like, if that's the case, then, WHY IN THE HELL DID THE MARKETS GO TO DA STINKING MOON WHEN THEIR "APPROVAL" RATINGS WERE GOING DOWN??????????????
Wad ever, and as always, "Invest", at your own risk.

This, of course, begs the age old question of do you "invest" in the WORST performing assets in the LAST quarter, or the BEST performing ones??
Read more: The Ten Worst Performing "SECTORS" Last Quarter

The answer of course, is based on your "risk" profile, but numerous studies have shown that "investing" in the WORST performing classes outperformed "investing" in the BEST performing ones, but, naturally, that's neither here nor there, every quarter is different. 
The single most important thing of course, is why would you read an article that the link above takes you to, WHEN THEY DON'T KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A, "SECTOR", AND AN "INDUSTRY"????? Hahahahahaha, I kind of thought they were in a little trouble, when I read the title, and thought, GEE, since there's only like, 10 "SECTORS" to begin with, that means EVERY THING GOT CRUSHED!!! Wad ever, it's a nice summary.

"I Work My Ass Off All Day, And these Goddamned Hippies Close Down The Brooklyn Bridge So I Can't Get Home? That Ain't Right!"

Read more:

EXCELLENT, weekend wrap from Cobra, AS ALWAYS,
LOTS, of interesting "Stat's", one interesting one I notice is the Bespoke chart of what happens after a quarter has a decline of 10% or more, if you notice (and I'm SURE you DO), EVERY ONE that ended in September, had a POSITIVE fourth quarter, EVERY ONE, some of the returns were quite LARGE! HOWEVER (hahahaha, there it is, the "disclaimer"), the thing that "might" over ride this positive bent, is the poor returns that came when the Indexes were DOWN for the year heading into the next quarter. 
On a personal basis, I'm scared to death of the next earnings season, it gets started with AA on October 11th. I mean, take those Stat's that Cobra shows, and then add into it, how many times have we had a piss poor quarter like that, and heading into the next quarter, the Pollyanna ANAL-LIST on Wall Street were projecting MORE RECORD EARNINGS FOR THE NEXT YEAR! I mean, Woooooo Weeeeee, any sign of weaker than "EXPECTED" earnings, or even more important, the LOWERING OF GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT YEAR, and these markets are going to crash faster than Obama can add a new tax to people that make LESS than $250K a Year!!!!!!

I give you the, EPITOME, of the "Best Six Months Of The Year" trading "Strategy", that period being November to May, in this case it was November of 05' into May of 06'. 
There, I can be as much of a Pollyanna bull shiter as any of those Wall Street ANAL-LIST!


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