Tuesday, October 18, 2011

I saw an interview with Jeff Saut, one of my favorites, and he alluded to it in his column yesterday, that being the similarity between 1978 and this year, http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
Now, I lived through 1978, and I can tell you from a personal basis, there is NO similarity between the two years, other than we had another unpopular liberal President who knew zero about economics, that was hell bent on destroying the economy, which he did, and which we took care of a couple of years later when we elected Regan. Unfortunately, I don't think the country has the ball's to do that now, and besides, the two Parties have more or less morphed into ONE party, as there is no difference between them, other than their constant raping of the American people, and the Republicrat's are doing their best to do EXACTLY what they did in 08', that is, putting up the single most worthless fricking candidates I can imagine, to insure what's his name's re-election.
Anyway, and wad ever, my personal opinion is we better hope we DON'T repeat 1978! The charts DO look extremely similar, you just have to kind of move the time frame, as we tracked along up to August, where we kind of lost it this year. I get the impression that he was comparing our pattern where we are now, to the October drop in 1978, where they bounced a long before going up into January. 
What I see, and I circled them, is the dumb ass run up we just had in October looks EXACTLY like the one they had back then, which then COLLAPSED into November, woooooo weeeeeeee, I mean, the way I see it is you can take the whole bottoming process they made back then from October into January, and throw it down BELOW the October lows we made to start the month, geeze, that would result in about another 10% drop below the current October low, for a new yearly low, as that's another huge difference between the charts, as our lows were 52 week lows, while they didn't come close back then. IBM and CROX were doing their best to help the situation along last night, as IBM was a little weak on the forecast and was down about 5%, while CROX must have meeced just a little more, for at one point they were down almost 40%.
The last thing I would note, is that despite the well tested POSITIVE seasonality of the November to May time period, and December being the BEST month of the year, 1978 proves that we CAN go down in those two months. 
In one of those unexplainable market "quirks", the damn Baltic Dry Index, $BDI, is going UP!!?? Hahahaha, sigh, I'm tellin ya, I think maybe I read to much or some thing, I have NO IDEA why it's doing that. Anyway, GNK has been sucking along with it, and set up a nice Dragonfly Doji on the second trading day of October, but I've been gone from it for awhile, and that 25% DROP in the first two days of October kind of made me wax philosophical like, and I basically took it off all my lists, like, AS FAST AS I COULD! IE, I no longer be to interested in it. 


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