Sunday, October 09, 2011

YAAAAAAAAA, know, I struggled all weekend about some thing to say about this, because I KNOW, ME, and I knew that I would probably post some TOTALLY OBNOXIOUS, COMPLETELY MOUTHY, post, about that GREAT call on Friday, when I said just before the open, "SELL THE WORLD!!", as we were gapping up into resistance, this after blasting higher three days in a row, and then GAPPING HIGHER, into an NFP day to boot, and we opened on the highs and basically NEVER looked back, putting on one uuuuuugilly looking BEARISH REVERSAL bar on the daily chart, as shown right under this!!!! Yeaaaa, I KNOW ME, so I decided to cool off a little first, so I could post some thing with out saying a THING about it, nothing, NADA, ZERO, ZILCH, I AIN'T GONNA SAY A THING ABOUT IT!!
So, after SLYLY getting THAT off my chest, I still don't see much on that chart above, ALTHOUGH, there's a few interesting items. That's a 120 minute chart, to kind of be able to show the intraday time frame on an expanded basis, the first thing I notice is the support we've been finding on the "TARGET" "area" of the old Head and Shoulders, which is around $113, we've bounced on it three times, before having the "break out fake out" last week, and I kind of think we "may" go back and "test" it again, eeeerrrrr, well, actually, we, SHOULD, go back and test it again, as we should definitely have some follow through to that ugly candle on Friday. I say, "should", because of course, who knows what the idiots are going to do, but a move back would set up very nicely for my "preferred" scenario, in the Orange numbers on the right side, as a move back to that $113 number would be almost an EXACT 50% retracement of the dumb ass rally, and it might encourage some shorter's, and scare some of the BS crowd, and Da Boyz could then use all that confusion to turn us around, seemly out in MID-AIR, and take us back higher, that would be pretty cool, well, eeerrrr, maybe the word should be "CRUEL", yea, that might fit better. 
I'm also starting to see a very well defined down trend channel on this thing, which means if we move lower, we probably see NEW lows. 

The daily chart, at the top, has a couple of green circles on the "indicators", with buys on the MACD and STOCH, but the RSI has yet to trigger over the 50 level. I will also say that a move above the 50 DMA will probably trigger a buying stampede, although the $120 number is still THE, KEY, number, as shown in the very top chart, as it sits right at the MAJOR down trend line.
The weekly is on SELL signals on ALL it's "indicators", HOWEVER, that's a terrific candle, a Bullish Engulfing, AND, Bullish Reversal candle, I've circled some of the good, and BAD, candles that match that in the last couple of years. You have to kind of take it in the "context" of where we are in the big picture, as the "Bad" candles came at what was looking like a possible topping area, and with this candle obviously NOT at a topping area, that means it's probably good. 

I don't mention the Summation index very often, $NYSI, but it has a couple of items on it. The daily, at the top, even though it's on a PSAR SELL signal, is "trying" to make a HUGE positive divergence against price on the SPY. 
HOWEVER, the weekly, at the bottom, continues to build out this HUGE NEGATIVE divergence, that goes all the way back to the high it made in September of 09'. To top that off, even though it's DOWN, the 5/3 STOCH just triggered a new SELL signal. The red vertical lines show prior sell signals over the last three years, with the green circles showing signals that worked.

This is just one of my typically obnoxious ANAL-LIST posts, but I just had to mention that they are making some pretty wild estimates about earnings next year, that's a list of the S and P 500, sorted, in descending order at Finviz, by the number of companies that will have higher ESTIMATED earnings NEXT year, as in, well, they may not be so hot this year, BUT JUST WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR, WOOOOOOO HOOOOOO!!!! "THEY", are projecting that 35, that's only 7%, 7%, of S and P companies will have NEGATIVE EARNINGS, next year!
Wad ever, we start to find out this week, as AA kicks off earnings season on Tuesday, PEP on Wednesday, GOOG and JPM on Thursday, so the, GAME, is on. BTWIM, I don't hold much over night during earnings season, and I generally look at the season as three weeks long, so we won't really make the TRUE move until they are almost over, which will be toward the end of this month. 


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