Monday, September 05, 2011

9:00AM: OUCH! Sigh, this is after every thing down below, it got WORSE, it dropped another 11 points, or $1.10 on the SPY if you wish, or over 200 points on the DOW, or about 2.2%, as the Sovereign Bond Risk surged to RECORD levels, IE, THEY ARE ALL GOING STINKING BROKE!!
Wad ever, hahahaha, all this means of course, is that the rebound will be EVEN HIGHER, as Da Boyz use our ill gotten tax payers funds, via Da Government and Da FED, to squeeze the shit out of those miss guided shorts during the over night session!! Don't get me wrong, of course, I COMPLETELY agree with the shorter's, it's just that you are trying to do battle against a stacked deck. 
The good part, naturally, is maybe the SPY goes to $50, TOMORROW, so we can get this stinking Secular Bear market OVER with!
I'm not going to bother checking it out, because IT'S A PAIN IN THE ASS, doing it by hand that is, but if we open up 2.2% LOWER tomorrow, I would GUESS, that it would be a record LOW opening for the day after Labor Day! Just my guess of course. 
WHEW! Thank god, I think the futures just had their Holiday close at 9:30MT, hahahahaha, I don't think we could have taken much more!!! Should make for an, aaaahhhhhh, interesting, open tonight. My "guess", is we open TOMORROW, HIGHER, than we closed this morning, just a wild ass guess of course. 
Humpt! Right on que it was, 3rd trading day is DOWN! Of course, the first two are, SUPPOSED, to be UP, hahahaha! I'd say that if you are a NasDog trader, what out for that 10th trading day!!! Woooo Weeeee!

5:45AM: SIGH! Futures are getting ripped a little this morning, DOW down about 150, the Mini S & P above is down about 14 Handles, or about $1.40 on the SPY, if that's what you relate to. The Hong Kong PMI fell more than "EXPECTED" (aaaahhhhh, those Polyana analyst on Da Street, you don't suppose they have an AGENDA do you), coming in at 47.8 vs 51.4 in July, any thing under 50 is recessionary of course, also the UK PMI had the steepest fall since April of 2001, falling to 51.1 from 54.4 the prior month, I mean, it's obvious, to me at least, we are getting a GLOBAL SLOW DOWN!
WAD EVER, the day AFTER Labor Day is, "USUALLY", bullish, and a gap down tomorrow will, "PROBABLY", be buyable, just my personal opinion of course. ALSO, "IF", we continue down this week, I think Obama is going to SAVE US, at least for Friday, as we probably get a little bullish bias after the "speech" on Thursday night. He makes GREAT speech's, doesn't he!!! Of course, it won't be any thing NEW, just the same ole stuff, you know, he'll probably feel the BEST way to save us, is to SAVE MORE GOVERNMENT JOBS!! AND, he'll want ANOTHER TRILLION DOLLAR "STIMULUS" plan, accept this time they won't even TRY to hide the graft and corruption in Washington, they'll just write the checks out of our tax payer accounts DIRECTLY to JPM, GS, BAC, MS, etc etc etc, as they do their best to drive the final nail in the coffin of what will be known in a thousand years in the history books as the Fall of the American Empire. 
By the way, I'm listening and watching Tom Busby trade the DAX in the DTI trading room, LIVE, as they are having a FREE Labor Day special, I don't know if you can sign up for it at this point, but they have a FREE Wednesday every week, you can sign up for that at http://dtitrader.com/futuretradingcourse-home/Registration.asp.

Hahahahahaha...HAH! This cracks me up, Fund my Mutual Fund had an "Interview" with Tom Friedman on Meet The Press, http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/, first off, who the hell is Tom Friedman, and what's he doing on Meet the Press??!! I mean, blah blah blah blah blah, etc etc etc etc, yea, ok, SO WHAT, so we spend to much as individuals, and borrow to much, who got us into that mind set by setting the example?? THE GOVERNMENT!! ANYWAY, the part that cracks me up, is the, PROBLEM, Maxine Waters, I mean, I'm getting back up off the floor, as I just fell out of my chair when the first words out of her mouth were, "A TRILLION DOLLARS"!!!!!!!!!! I was just joking above, SHE'S NOT!! It's amazing about how EASY the word, TRILLION, roll's off her tongue, sigh, the next part that cracks me up, is when she says "I don't think you can solve the problem by giving more tax breaks, TO THE VERY PEOPLE THAT GOT US INTO THE PROBLEM IN THE FIRST PLACE"!!!!!??????? IS SHE TALKING ABOUT HERSELF????? YOU ARE LOOKING AT, AND HEARING, THE PROBLEM WE FACE IN THIS COUNTRY, THESE STINKING IDIOTS THAT HAVE BEEN RUINING THIS COUNTRY FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS!! GET RID OF EVERY ONE OF THEM, PEOPLE!!
I mean, good lord, SHE's the one that GAVE those, "VERY PEOPLE", those tax breaks, SHE's the one that got rid of the bank rules and regulations that had worked just fine for 70 years and let Hanky Pankey Paulson and his Wall Street Cronies rape this country, SHE's the one that MADE the bank's loan money to people that had NO CHANCE of being able to pay it back............ sigh, wad ever. When I say, SHE, I'm talking about the ENTIRE bunch in Washington of course, I mean, she and Pelosi and Boxer are the poster children for it, but it was the ENTIRE bunch, Republicrat and Demican, that led us into this malaise. You know, the thing I fear, is that Obama is going to use the CURRENT crisis, just like they used the LAST one, when Emanuel walked into the White house the first day and said "We can't let a good crisis go to waste", and use a WPA type program to add millions more to the unionized Public "SERVANT" rolls, which is just going to, well, it's going to crush us. 
Sigh, I'm sorry I even brought it up, shit, all I started out doing was wondering who in the hell Tom Friedman was, wad ever. 

Geeze, talk about going from bad to worse, my attitude that is, check out this article about GE's, "Profits", since the "crisis" began in 08', http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/06/hot-stocks-general-electric-co-creates-new-business-focus-rise-from-recession/, it's in the section entitled "Rocky Road to Recovery", toward the bottom. You know, I hate to admit it, but I OWN some GE, mainly because their dividend it close to 4%, and they "could" double it over the next couple of years, easily, ANYWAY........HAH! And I wonder why I've hated the, quote, RALLY, from 09', most of their "profits" have come from HIDING them in over sea's accounts, a lot of it came from, quote, "Aggressive tax Lobbying efforts", IE, MAXINE WATER's and her pals, IN FACT, they MADE 14.2 BILLION DOLLARS last year, and yet MAXINE, GAVE THEM, 3.2 BILLION IN TAX CREDITS!!!!???? GE, of course, is one of the 25 Wall Street firms that paid their CEO, MORE, than they paid in TAXES!! ALSO, the number of their employee's oversea's have gone from 46% of their work force to 54% of their work force, and after the "crisis", they laid off 1,000 of their oversea's work force, and 28 FRICKING THOUSAND, of their US work force!
I mean, this is disgusting, but, hey, MAXINE, I LOVE IT, as long as I'm a GE share holder that is!
Screw it, I'm going fishing, good luck to you out there in La La Land. 

This doesn't have any thing to do with, well, any thing (what DOES on this blog!), but I'm an NCIS junkie, and, well, the USA channel is having a marathon today, and, well, hang with me here, there's a reason for this, actually, a couple of them, it concerns Suzana Drobnjakovic, some times called Sasha Alexander, number one, that was probably the single most brutal exit from a TV series that I've ever seen, that being when Ari blew her brains out on the "Twilight" espisode, hahahahahha, she wanted out BAD, I guess. 
So I'm channel surfing one night (notice how I cleverly skipped forward here!), and I happened to surf through the new series, "Rizzolie and Isles", and I'll be damned, I DIDN'T EVEN RECOGNIZE HER!!! Hahahaha, wooooo weeeeee, your not aging to well there sweetie, and let me tell you, it DON'T get any better after 40! Of course, it probably didn't help in that every time I looked at her, all I could see was that big old hole in her forehead!
ANYWAY, talk about your NEPOTISM, Hollywood is almost, ALMOST, as bad as Washington, did you know she's the Daughter in Law of Sophia Loren?????

This is my PERSONAL interpretation of the ideas in this article by Tim Wood, http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tim-wood/2011/08/24/dow-theory-update. Aside from the current DOW THEORY sell signal that has triggered, his OVER ALL outlook is comparable to the 1966-1975 period in ancient history, in which he shows a chart of at the bottom of the page. HIS interpretation is that we are currently in the FIRST green leg rally period, with the first RED down leg starting with the dump in 2007, meaning that MY interpretation above, with the first RED leg down starting in 2000, is to early, he see's another BLUE leg down, then another GREEN leg up, before the FINAL, and LAST, PURPLE leg down. I mean, I certainly HOPE he's not right, sigh, we are looking at YEAR's under his scenario, I prefer to be a POLYANA OPTIMISTIC, and hope the NEXT down leg, to SPY $50, WILL BE THE LAST LEG!!
I just see the world through eternal Rose colored glasses, hahahahaha!

This is just a wonderful interview with that egg head Robert Shiller, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/robert-shiller/, it's one of the few times I've seen him completely relaxed, and he's relaxed because he's actually given some time to express his thoughts, plus he's not constantly interrupted by some Bubblevision reporter who thinks they have to interject with their own idiotic statements, AND, speaking of THAT, he gets to explain his thoughts very clearly, like he's talking to an elementary school class, as the interviewer obviously knows less about finances than those Elementary Pre-Schoolers!
Wad ever, don't take the "egg head" remark the wrong way, I LOVE this guy, hahahaha, he's the quintessential egg head, as he always has this far far away look in his eyes while he's talking about some thing, like, well, he's actually THINKING! One thing I see a little bit of, is that he's moving more to a SOCIO-ECONOMIC way of thinking, which has been pioneered by Bob Prechter, as he spends a lot of time talking about moods, how people are feeling about themselves, how they are looking at their situation, what they see in the future, etc etc etc, pretty good stuff.
Anyway, his "safest" investment recommendation of a life time is, dddddddrrrrrruuuuuuummmm ROLL, TIPS! The one thing you have to know about Bob is, he's CONSERVATIVE, hahahaha, he's NOT a speculator, and he wants to know he's going to get his investment BACK! He talks about it toward the end of the interview, and unfortunately he doesn't elaborate, for what he is, is an ASSET ALLOCATOR, as he talks about the most important part of being an Allocator, RE-BALANCING, but he doesn't mention the OTHER side of the RE-BALANCING act. I mean, he does a little bit, as he mentions that as the safe assets go UP, you should be re-balancing into the "riskier" assets, IE, the stupid stock market.
With that in mind, here's a chart of the TIP's, with the SPY for comparison over the last five years:

As, "I", can see, during the FIRST LEG of the current secular bear market, in 2007, TIP's went higher as the "markets" plunged, at the green arrows, which is perfectly NORMAL behavior, BUT, since the first bottom in 2009, BOTH asset classes have gone HIGHER, which is perfectly NOT normal behavior. It's actually an asset allocator's dream of course, as you didn't have to do a damn thing, accept rake in the profits, wooooo hoooooo! During the current "stock" market volatility, in the green circle, they've actually been acting a little more normal, as the TIP's have moved up as the "markets" have gone down, we actually had a little bit of that last year at this time, during that correction, so inside that general UP move in both classes we had a couple of little periods of normalcy.
What bother's me, is the RED circle. That, of course, was during the height of the, "crisis", in late 2008, while stocks dived, the damn TIP's ALSO lost 12%!
Look, I'm a horrible, "investor", mainly because I don't, "BELIEVE", actually, one way da udder, hahahaha, but I can't help but think, personally, that bonds SUCK, I mean, this negative yield crap is pure bull shit, and eventually the Bond Vigilantes are going to come out of their hibernation and make them pay for it, which means that if we stay in the "All the Same Markets" syndrome, EVERY THING IS GOING TO GO LOWER!

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