Saturday, September 10, 2011

PREPARING FOR ARMAGEDDON

Ok, I'm officially flabbergasted, hahaha. That's just a little laugh, kind of a nervous one at that. I, "officially", am posting this after reading Carl Swenlin's "confession", Puzzling Over Bonds, but of course I've been talking about this Ad Nauseum, sigh, I guess I just feel better knowing a pro like Carl is just as confused as I Yam. 
To Carl's credit, he, of course, being the Pro he is, took the SIGNAL, despite his obvious misgivings, while, I, continue with my bull headed convictions about this being an even BIGGER bubble than when I talked about it in 2008. In 08' I mentioned the, "insanity", of bond "investor's", the premise being that MOST bond investors are in it for the income stream, and at the time, with yields in the 3% range, I couldn't for the life of me figure out what in the hell was going through their minds, as we just had that five week bubblicious POP that had given them 9 fricking year's of yield, in just over a month, IE, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR, TAKE THE FRICKING NINE YEAR'S AND SELL NOW!! And I was correct, as we wiped that gain out in the next six months to drop back to where the bubble had started, so any one, "investing", in bonds at that top, essentially LOST nine year's of yield, meaning if bonds stayed flat it would take you nine years just to get back to even on your "investment", sigh. 
Ok, look, wad ever, I'm just pissed off here because I REFUSED to buy the fricking things when they were sitting at $95, just seven short weeks ago, I mean, it's not like I couldn't have used the 20% gains in bonds to offset the 15% loss in the stock market, hahahaha, especially since I'm SUPPOSED to be 65% INVESTED in bonds at my age, sigh, wad ever, AGAIN, I'm puking all over myself like that picture I posted yesterday. This is a classic example of having an OPINION, rather than just looking at what was sitting there, and I was also price anchoring, AGAIN, as I was used to buying them in the 80's and SELLING them in the 90's, not fricking buying them there, again, wad ever. 
Ok, let me start over here, AGAIN, WHAT'S GOING ON HERE? Well, SOME ONE, is obviously preparing for Armageddon here, I mean, look at that thing, actually both of them, the volume in the TLT has just been EXPLODING since early last year, I mean, SOME BODY, has been buying this thing like crazy, and it sure strikes me as weird that here it is, making ALL TIME HIGHS, over a lousy little 15% decline in the Stock markets! I mean, look at the volume back in 2008, in the red circle, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE "CRISIS", the Stock markets had already declined like 50% by the time the TLT bubble took off then, when Lehman was going BK, Bear Sterns, WaMU, Countrywide, Merrill, etc etc etc, were all ceasing to exist in the forms they were in at that time, the CEO of Goldman, eeeeerrrrrr, our Treasury Secretary, was extorting the tax payer's for 800 Billion under the threat of financial collapse if he couldn't give it to his buddies on Wall Street, and compared to now, the, PANIC, to get into bonds, was a mere BLIP compared to what we are seeing now!
I don't want to scare any one, BUT, the last time we had this type of configuration between the TLT and SPY, in those red circles in 2008, the Stock markets lost some 20%, AND, the TLT lost 27 FRICKING PERCENT, into their respective lows in 2009! I'm DEFINITELY not trying to say this will happen again, I mean, I HAVE NO IDEA, what I will tell you, is that I'm playing very SMALL right now, and I have hedges on any thing I'm holding over night. Also, DESPITE, what Bubblevision would have you believe, CASH, is a POSITION, and with the explosion in the dollar last week, it may not be looking that bad. 

ANYWAY, speaking of the HEAD Democan appearing on Thursday night, and throwing the gauntlet down to all those Republicrats who weren't there to see it (I WAS talking about that, wasn't I??), Carl, in his article, mentioned a VERY informative series of reports from the Hoisington company, this is their latest article, http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2011Q2NP.pdf, but like Carl recommended, you need to go to their home site and read the last three or four reports to get a grasp of what they are saying, very good stuff it is.
I'm not going to go over the asinine nothings that he "talked" about, as Maxed Out Mama is doing a series on it, the first of which she started yesterday, http://maxedoutmama.blogspot.com/, but I do have a few questions, like:
Didn't we just go through, HELL, getting a debt ceiling limit passed, and doesn't this IMMEDIATELY throw that right out the window???? Oh, wait, we are going to PAY for it (you bet your sweet LIFE we WILL, hahhaha), but, we will pay for it, DOWN THE ROAD A WAYS!
Did he just throw Social Security out the window???? I could swear, SWEAR I tell Ya, he said they were going to REDUCE the SS taxes on the currently employed! We AREN'T paying for it NOW, so how is THAT going to help FUND it DOWN THE ROAD???
Isn't this a regurgitation of the FIRST TRILLION DOLLAR "Stimulus" program where they literally "BLEW" the money on building Whore houses for ACORN???? And didn't that BJ money KEEP us in the 2008 recession rather than pull us out of it??
I'm probably WRONG, I usually Yam, but hasn't SAVING GOVERNMENT JOBS, and paying people to continually SIT ON THEIR ASSES, been already proven to be some what Fiscally NON-PRUDENT???
Of course, the $450 BIL is just a, ROUGH, guesstimate, for in keeping with the breaking of the promise he made while running for the top Democan office, where he said he would never, NEVER, sign a bill that had EAR MARKS in it, and then promptly signed the NON-Healthcare bill, the Bush Tax cut bill, the "Stimulus" bill, etc etc etc, all of which had THOUSANDS of Ear Marks in them, so to will THIS Bill, end up with THOUSANDS of EAR MARKS attached to it!!! And I LOVE it, for I actually have a BRIDGE to no where out at the Ranch, that is in DIRE NEED of an Ear Mark in order to get it repaired! WOOOOO HOOOO!

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