Monday, September 12, 2011

I read articles like this just to see what people are looking at, or talking about, or thinking, blah blah blah, any way, the first line of the conclusions in this one caught my eye, strong-standard-and-poors-500-earnings-plus-weak-stock-values-equals-opportunity, here's the line:
"If the S and P 500 achieves the earnings goal of $98.57 as estimated by the above graphs, its year-end 2011 earnings justified fair value would be 1478.45, which is approximately 23% higher than it currently sits."
Actually, it would be more interesting to ME, to find out what YOU see in that line, first and foremost! Come on, wad did ya see.............. come on now, answer truthfully.................
Ok, I'll tell you what I see, or, eeerrrr, how I think it SHOULD have actually been written:

"If"........ the S and P 500 achieves the earnings goal of $98.57, "as estimated", by the above graphs, its year-end 2011 earnings justified fair value would be 1478.45, which is, "approximately", 23% higher than it currently sits.

Hahahaha, reads a little bit different, don't it, BUT, that's how I see it! I see NO STINKING WAY, that, "IF", we are heading into a continuation of the 08' recession that we NEVER emerged from, that the $98.57, "as estimated", is neither "Justified" nor "Approximately", nor for that matter is it, "APPROPRIATE"!!!

HAH! Speaking of the devil, even that stinking Washington Post is questioning the validity of the ANAL-LIST's projections, "Analysts do a poor job of estimating earnings at turning points in the economy.  (WashingtonPost)"

HA-HA-HA-HA............HAH! My goodness gracious, this would be hilarious if it wasn't so incredibly stupid, Greece Slaps On New Property Tax to Cut Deficit, I mean, my god man, is Nancy, "We Have to Pass the Healthcare Bill at 4AM on a Sunday Morning Without Reading It in order to See What's Actually In It", Pelosi, running that Place???????

 The NYSE Advance/Decline lines, $NYAD, are, STILL, in a positive configuration, on a longer term basis. Don't get me wrong, they are NOT doing that great, obviously, BUT, compared to the drop the market has had, they have not dropped below any of the MAJOR support area's like the general markets have. Of course, that could all change in an instant.


GNK, one of my little pieces of junk I play around with, has reached it's first MAJOR resistance area, it put a kind of hammer candle on it on Friday, and a lower open on Monday would not be a good configuration. Now, this is a miracle, of course, and miracles happen every day in the stock markets, but it hit almost to the GNAT's ASS it's cash per share level, or $7.96. As shown in FinViz, it's "expected" to LOSE $1.05 next year, http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gnk, so obviously it's cash per share is going to drop to $6.91, still not exactly going broke. 
As the top chart shows, and just like ALL the shipping stocks, it tends to follow, or lead, the Baltic Dry Index around, and, SURPRISE, despite all the talk of a World Wide economic collapse, the $BDI has been moving HIGHER lately, hahahahaha, I'm tell Ya, weird stuff sure goes on in the markets. I, of course, am not a BELIEVER, and what I do BELIEVE, is that we get a flush to the down side, for the final bottom.
Anyway, I'm currently OUT, and I'm taking the chance that it may leave me behind of course, but I will be interested again, if it can go back and "TEST" that previous low around $4. I would point out that the previous low over to the left was it's ALL TIME low, so this thing is plumbing the depths, BUT, that previous low gives you some thing to trade off of, as under it and WHO KNOWS where it could go to. 

I consider myself lucky with AKS, ALTHOUGH, you do make your own luck, RIGHT! I didn't sell at the exact top, but I did all right. In the top chart the thing is showing what looks like to me to be a "Continuation Box", as it had the big two week dump, and now it's gone side ways for a month, trapped between $9.50 and $7.65, which is the exact low of the range. On a "Theoretical" basis, this thing COULD be setting up for the  "Equal Move" set up, which would take it down to $1.00.
The reason I love this thing of course, is that there has been a tremendous amount of "Insider" buying when it hits the lower level of the range, all of it just recently, the CEO James Wainscott started it off on August 9, along with the Executive VP, buying 25K shares at $7.96, and more recently another VP brought some on September 6th, the same day I piled in, at $7.95.
Now, 25K shares for the CEO is NOTHING, BUT, what I'm interested to see, is if we break BELOW that low at $7.65, he starts buying MORE, IE, he's building a position. On the longer term chart at the bottom, at the final double bottom during the FIRST phase of the current great BEAR market, the final low for the period was $4.99, SO, right now you have about a three dollar stop area, that is, if you take a position and decide that $4.99 will be your stop, but my thought, is that I would BACK UP THE TRUCK, if it ever got to $5!
For the short term of course, I have every intention of taking another shot at it if it gets under $8, hopefully close to that $7.65 "area", as I will definitely use that as a short term stop. My preferred scenario would be for it to BREAK that low, and then REBOUND, IE, flush the weak hands out, and then immediately gap back up, and get them all chasing it again. Of course, it could just take off higher from here, if that happens I probably won't be interested unless it breaks the upper level of the BOX, some where above $9.50, taking any thing that is INSIDE the range of the box is pretty dangerous, as it will chop around in there, but of course the good part is your stop areas are very well defined, whether you go short or long, so set your RISK parameters up accordingly.

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