Monday, September 19, 2011

HAH! Some of them have finally started coming around to what my "Thesis" has been since I started this blog, that being the HORRIBLE Demography, that's at Larry Levine's blog, but he refer's you to TWO recent articles about it, not a very FUN read for us, aaaaaaaahhhhhh, MORE EXPERIENCED, people. 

6:15AM: "Futures down after rally as euro zone fears grow", hahahahaha, that MSM, they are a FUN bunch they are! The MSM, of course, WORK's for those very firms on Wall Street, and get their head lines from THEM, to help them manipulate the futures any which way they please!
Wad ever, the CONCEPT, that we just found some magic thing out about Europe, is ludicrous, the TRUTH of the matter is, is that the MSM keeps their mouth shut about the ongoing problems over there, when Da Boyz on Da Street want to RALLY the markets! And then when they want to pull us back a little, and shake the tree, and maybe shake out some weak hands, they tell the MSM, oh, yea, we're pulling back because we are worried about "Europe", hahahahahaha! The MSM of course, by edit of the White House, is forbidden to mention that we are in a recession here, earnings are going to suck this quarter, and in the future, we already have a HIGHER Debt/GDP ratio than the combined EU, and the White House is ALREADY trying to take us over the Debt ceiling, that we just had that huge fight about, sigh, wad ever! Luckily, the FED will, quote, come in to "SAVE" us on Wednesday, even though they can't do a damn thing accept destroy the dollar and pump inflation through the roof, and cause more Governments to fall to revolution (hopefully coming to a corner near you NEXT).  
Anyway, the low volume over night futures are the perfect place for Da Boyz to do their dirty work, I find it very cute that they opened us last night EXACTLY, on the low from Friday before the afternoon rally. I guess all the futures trader's in the ENTIRE world all decided last nigh, well, when we open up I'm selling EVERY THING, at the exact low of Friday, hahahahahahahahaha............HAH! You'd THINK, they would try and be a little less, aaaahhhh, obvious, but that's the arrogance of Da Street!
We've been down as much as 200 points, depending on what we do here, like if we RALLY into the open, I'll wait, and see if we go down and "test" the over night lows, but if they take us down and "test" the lows just before the open, then I'll probably buy this shit at the open.
Good luck to you out there in confusion Land!


Struggling with this Market? You are Not Alone

That should make you feel a little better, a LOT, of BIG players are struggling.


Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) lost 3.6 percent this morning to $11.15. The world’s largest producer of chipmaking equipment was cut to “sell” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cited the potential for excess supply and a decrease in orders in the industry.
Hahahahahaha! I, EXPECT, a public apology from Big Bertha at CNBC today, as it appears the, quote, "BOTTOM", is being blown through in the premarket. Wad ever, the bull shit is just endless, one of my MAIN reasons for thinking the rally in the SEMI's was pretty much BS, was BECAUSE of AMAT's earnings report, I mean, come on, they are the BIGGEST FAB outfit in the world, and when they say they are sucking the big one, well, I don't know, I really don't know what to say. 


Free stock pick for 09/19/2011
ivica@xpertstocktrader.com


Sunday, 9/19/2011:
Cobra basically lays it out for you here, http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/, and being a typical Cobra his head is bobbing back and forth, as he prepares to strike, your just not sure from which direction he's going to strike from, hahahahaha! Which is GOOD, as he gives you "IF", "THEN" scenario's to choose from, as in "IF" we get above here, "THEN", etc etc etc.
My personal opinion is that, "IF", we go higher tomorrow, "THEN", I'm getting the HELL out of DODGE, hahahahahaha!! Sigh, the "concept" that SINCE we've gone UP for FIVE days in a row, we will UNDOUBTEDLY go UP for FIVE more days in a row, is, well, rather ludicrous, but, as Cobra pointed out, a case "could" be made that we may very well continue on higher, it's just that my personal risk tolerances don't exactly give me free rein to be going ALL IN here. "IF", "HOWEVER", "SHOULD", we go lower tomorrow, as he suggested we "SHOULD", then I will definitely take a LONG position going into the FOMC day on Wednesday. "IF", "HOWEVER", "SHOULD" we go HIGHER tomorrow, AND Tuesday, Woooooo Weeeeeee, I would definitely be petrified about holding a LONG position into the actual announcement on Wednesday, I just hate it when the market builds in "expectations" like that, there's only a few things that can happen in that scenario, and they are almost ALL bad, such as the "expectation" is ALREADY built in, and it's a sell the news, or even WORSE, the FED fails to live UP to the "expectation", in which case we probably get a HUGE sell off.
Wad ever, some, "general", observations on that chart up there, we are STILL in the "BEAR" flag, and the general consensus I see among Elliott Wavers, including Cobra, is that this is a Wave FOUR, which is the consolidation wave before moving LOWER in the final Wave FIVE move. It's MUCH better if these fourth wave's set up a TRIANGLE, but a Bear flag is kind of the same type of set up, just not as clear, and much harder to trade, as you don't have an exact trend line to watch for a break, one way or Da Udder.
There's not many PRO's, as compared to the CON's,  but I'll list a couple, the MACD is on a BUY, that's good, the STOCH is on a buy, that's good, and in the green circle, the Bollinger bands have turned UP, that's good, as the tendency is when we break higher, we go up and start WALKING the Bollinger's higher, as shown in some of those red circles over on the left side, the actual circle itself denotes the point where the candle finished OUTSIDE the Bollinger, which usually ends in tear's for the buyer's at that point.
OK, enough of the Bullish shit, the CON's are, LEGION, hahahhaha! Number one, we've gone UP five days in a row, I mean, I don't give a shit what the stat's are, the ODD's, are, we don't continue up to much longer. As far as the, "indicators", the MACD may be positive, but the Histogram on it is showing a negative divergence, I don't like how the STOCH turned higher out in the middle of Clear Air like that, and the stinking RSI is at, 1 fricking HUNDRED, hahahaha! Woo wee, that's what's called over brought, just slightly, not saying that it can't get MORE over bought, but looking to the left we turned DOWN from lower levels the last three times, and also turned DOWN from the 100 reading we got at the start of July.
My, MAIN, concern though, is that very same green circle I talked about above, this is going to be one HUGE, HUGE, HUGE etc etc etc, BATTLE ZONE, as we are running into a CONFLUENCE of serious resistance points. First off, we are running into the DECLINING 50 DMA, which, in and of itself, is going to create a LOT of action when we get there. Second off, we are running smack into the August highs, after FIVE STRAIGHT DAYS HIGHER, INTO A 100 READING ON THE RSI!

You know, there's a few minutes between this line and the last one above, I stopped, as I got to thinking about it, and as I started getting more and more on the NEGATIVE side with each word I wrote, with me being so negative, it means there's about a 110% chance the market moves HIGHER this week, hahahaha! I mean, don't get me wrong, I THINK, that I'm RIGHT, about the heavy resistance area we are coming into, ESPECIALLY, when you take into account the EXTENDED condition we are in as we approach it, it's just that, well, the stupid market CAN, and PROBABLY, WILL, do some weird thing, sigh. The only thing that would get me positive at this point, is if we get OVER that area, meaning we get over the 50 DMA, and that red horizontal line. "IF", we do, then I'll revert back to my typical type of buy setup mode, that being "IF" we pull back to that break out point, and TEST it, at least at that point I'd have a STOP to work with, I mean, buying it right here gives you, really, only one stop, and that would be clear down back where we started the current rally from unless, of course, you use a POINT, or PERCENTAGE, type of stop. Even it we start pulling back right now, like, tomorrow, I'd probably get MORE positive on it, ESPECIALLY, if we got close to that LOWER trend line, as that would give me a great stop to work with on a LONG. In that vein, I got one last little note here, and that's that we set up a kind of "Hanging Man" candle on Friday, it's not perfect, as you don't want that little green body on it, but the thing with these is that you want to open UNDER the open from Friday, IE, it leaves an Island Reversal, or Abandoned Baby, or Evening Star, although you need a gap up on the Hanging Man for that, which we don't have here. Again, I wouldn't be going short should any of this happen, as I would get more bullish the closer we get to that bottom trend line. The MAIN short pattern is going to come "IF" we get under the low of the Bear Flag, or even under the lower trend line, as that set's up the CONTINUATION, or EQUAL MOVE, patterns, which project down to the $98 to $100 "area".

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