Sunday, August 28, 2011

7:00PM: That Dshort, I'm tellin ya, what a great blog, http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-GDP-Per-Capita.php, in the article he talks about REAL GDP per CAPITA, I gotta admit, I hardly EVER hear any one else talk about that Metric, hahahahaha! Anyway, I draw your attention to the LAST chart on the page, HIS comment is that the CURRENT GDP is LOWER than ANY OTHER GDP since 1947 right before the onset of a recession, other than the 6 month one in 1980, IE, we are on Da Cusp! BUT, what I see on that chart, is what I've been ragging on since the LAST recession ended, IE, WE NEVER PULLED OUT OF IT, for if you look at the very FIRST SPIKE, AFTER each recession ended, you can see that the PEAK of the "recovery spike" we got out of the CURRENT recession is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY lower than the peak of any of the other spikes, with the possible exception of the 1991 recession, I mean, the peak of the current SPIKE is lower than that spike, but it's not WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY lower. I mean, let's be honest here, hell, the PEAK of the current recovery spike is lower than the levels that LED to a recession in 4 or the previous 11 recessions. Wad ever, it's ALL GOOD you know, I know so, because Da Government and Da Street tell me so. 

You know, by all, RIGHTS, this is a low level triangle, and AS SUCH, it, SHOULD, break to the down side. Sigh, wad ever, in the famous words of Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda, it probably Wont'a, you start a five point touch on these things from the point where it last stopped in the prior trend, in this case the trend was, OBVIOUSLY, DOWN, so, it, SHOULD, be a continuation triangle in the direction of the PRIOR trend. HOWEVER, Elliott wave says that you make FIVE touch's, and then BLAST OFF in the direction of the fourth touch, so that would have to be HIGHER! That is, unless the "5" I have on there is NOT a touch, which, in THEORY, it's not, meaning we come down to make the REAL FIFTH TOUCH, or even break the bottom of the triangle, before BLASTING OFF higher. 
Wad ever, it's pretty obvious that if we break over the top of it, AND, over the middle leg of the "BIG "W"" I talked about, at $120, we go higher, with a target up by $130, IF, we can get through my MAJOR resistance point at $126. 
Anyway, that about as many IF, UNLESS, PROBABLY, AND, OR, BUTT's I can think of at the moment. 

PS: This note is AFTER the crap I wrote below, one of the bloggers I respect the most, Stockbee, http://stockbee.blogspot.com/, has an article some what relating to the, aaaaahhhhh, eeeeerrrrr, well, wad ever it was I wrote about. He's basically saying you should be standing aside for awhile, depending, of course, on your time frame or inwesting style. 

I'd like to comment on Mike Paulenoff's article in the previous post, number one, I don't, "DO", MA cross overs, they don't test out worth a crap as far as a strategy, nor, for that matter, do "Indicators", although Mr. Strategy, BZ, http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/, has left his blog open where he has a few dozen "Strategies" available, that prove that they DO work, if you have the stomach for the draw downs, etc etc etc, and the mental discipline to TAKE, EVERY, signal, which you have to do to make the system work, which is probably the hardest part of being a "System" trader. 
ANYWAY, back to wad ever I was talking about, oh, yea, MIKE, first off, I LIKE MIKE, so this is NOT about him, but like I said, I DON'T like MA cross overs as a SIGNAL, usually when that happens the ENTIRE MOVE is over with, DonesVille, KaPut, IE, they are lagging signals. With THAT said, if you look at the chart, well, YEA, they WORK, as shown in the red and green circles, as we've only had FOUR signals in the last decade, I use a slightly different set of MA's than Mike, I use the 13, 34 and 55 EXP. WEEKLY MA's, but use what ever the heck you want to, or you feel comfortable with, it DON'T matter!
Wad ever, I use them in relation to where PRICE is, IE, is price UNDER them, or OVER them, or, are we in an UP trend, or a DOWN trend. Over the last decade the 55 EXP. MA has worked fairly well as a "Capping" device, IE, once we move under it or over it "price" usually gets CAPPED by that MA, as per the TREND. It worked almost perfectly in the first part of the Secular Bear Market, as it capped every RALLY from the start in 2000 into the bottom in 2003, then, it capped every PULL BACK from the bottom in 2003 to the last top in 2007, and then, ok, and then, well, eeeeerrrrrrr......................
What a bunch of CRAP! What I mean is, there's been NO trend, the drop out of 07' happened WAY to fast, it got WAY to extended, and most of it happened in basically five months. And then, the RALLY was a bunch of crap as well, we barely got over the MA's and Waaaaa Laaaaaa, we whip sawed it last year, and then took STRAIGHT FRICKING OFF HIGHER!! This is BULL SHIT, market's don't behave like this, well, ok, they DO, but they, quote, "SHOULDN'T", I've included charts of the last four decades as a kind of example of various markets, down below, with a few comments. 
Anyway, this thing is BROKEN, any way you want to look at it, at least it's BROKEN for "Investors", unless your a slimy bottom fisher like me, who can only concentrate for about five minutes, you should be OUT of this market, and WAITING, that is, waiting for this thing to calm down, and maybe go side ways for awhile, working it's way back up ABOVE those MA's, in fact I might be so bold as to say you "should" wait until we get back over the old high around $137 before committing, but that's just me. Mike's "system" is on the cusp of a major SELL signal, and the one I like a lot, that is, using a 10 or 12 MA on a MONTHLY chart, is already on a SELL signal, so you should definitely be out, and enjoying life a little, you probably have lots of time here, more than likely I'd wait until late October, for the best SIX MONTHS of the year, November through April, and maybe incorporate a MACD cross on the daily charts as a signal, or some thing like that, although I must say that we actually HAD a positive cross on the MACD the last two days, so we've made the trigger move, sigh, wad ever, the weekly MACD is still on a ferocious sell configuration. 
A couple of little notes before the charts of the other decades, while I'm thinking about it:

 We had an "Inside Week" last week, that's, aaaahhhhhh, GOOD, well, the, BODY, of the candle was an Inside week, we actually had a 9 cent lower low than the prior week, which was an OUTSIDE week, or Bearish Engulfing, hahahahahaha, sigh, it wouldn't surprise me at all to have a higher open tomorrow, and then put on another Bearish Engulfing week, sigh, wad ever, I mean, if you feel you just HAVE to be in this market, LONG, I might think about a stop under the OPEN of last week, about $115, with a greatly reduced position size for your risk parameters. 

The main men, the NYSE A/D's, are actually not to bad looking, they actually made a MUCH higher low than the previous week, even as the market was making a very slight lower low, so that's a positive divergence, and just like the markets, the MACD has crossed into a buy signal on the daily charts. What I'd like to see is for them to LEAD us higher if we get a rally here, that is, break over the high made a couple of weeks ago BEFORE the markets break over that high, which is around $120 on the SPY, that would put them back in a LEADING position, as they suck the markets higher. 


With the exception of the 1998 fiasco, the markets were very well behaved in the 90's, staying above the weekly 55 MA. 

Most people seem to think the markets went straight up in the 80's, like, NOW, but, they were fairly well behaved, with a pretty normal climb into the 1987 fiasco. Speaking of that, you know, most of the MSM likes to talk about the 20 percent ONE DAY drop, but you know, we continued down and lost an amazing 35 percent in just two weeks. The Udder thing I want to point out, is the green box, we went SIDE WAYS, and CONSOLIDATED, for a year, before moving higher into the first Bushie's war, IE, we did NOT blast STRAIGHT FRICKING UP, like, well, some dumb ass "markets", like, NOW!

You might as well take this chart and super impose it right over the one we have now, this is the 70's of course, I have the DOW on there because stupid BarCharts wouldn't give me the SP, wad ever, they were the same. The main feature I'd like to point out is the green box, despite all the bull crap out of the MSM, and the double dip in 80' and 81', we basically went SIDE WAYS for three years, heading into the blast off into the 80's, or, we CONSOLIDATED, unlike some stupid market I can think of right now. In fact, of course, it actually took us 16 years before we blasted higher, as the whole period was really one gigantic CONSOLIDATION. Of course, that was as a result of a MACRO perspective, as the BIGGEST generation in history was preparing to go into their BIGGEST SPENDING years, and building up the greatest amount of DEBT in history, as we became the credit card generation. Of course, that BIGGEST generation in HISTORY, is now trying to get the hell out of Dodge, after finding out what a bunch of stinking CROOKS they are on Wall Street, as their partners, the GOVERNMENT, is trying to kill us off as fast as they can, before we start trying to tap into all those ENTITLEMENTS we have, that they say we don't deserve, even though we PAID for them, by having one of their lackey's, the FED, hold interest rates at ZERO for the rest of our life times, so Grandma can't make any money in her fixed income products, thus forcing her into RISKY assets, which, of course, Da Street and Da Government are going to CONFISCATE as fast as they can, to complete the EXECUTION!
Wad ever, I wish you all a fricking happy face week.

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