Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Now EOD 12/10/08

5:30pm: Because I have so much junk on my charts, I like to take a look at the Cheapo's once in a while, I have to admit, I hate this chart. The fact that we have run up, and stalled under that 50SMA, is not, aaaaahhhh, good, the RSI2 is on a sell, the Stoch is over bought, like I mentioned below. This has that bad Tick on it from monday, it has NOT filled the gap. I mean, yea yea yea yea, this thing, "could", go up, the best senario I see for that, would be like a gap down in the gap fill area, and then we put on a bullish engulfing bar that takes out the highs of the week, that would be cool. Knowing Da Boyz, they will probably try to gap us over it in the premarket, THAT, I would not like, and more than likely, that would set up a sell the news type of thing, based on what ever news they used to gap us over it, at this point it would probably be some thing related to the auto welfare applicants. The other senario, and the one it is set up for, is to go lower, and if that's the case, I'm outta here, I'm not going to screw around with this thing, if we get back in the middle of that range from last week. Yea yea yea, a break of last week's lows, will undoubtedly, lead to a retest of the yearly lows, take it. The much better R/R on this thing, is to short it, with a stop over the highs of this week.

Guy Adami mentioned this on Fast Money tonight, ERTS, I heard the news last night, I don't do stocks, but, this thing hit a 52 week low under HUGE volume, I know what it is and all that stuff, the thing about some thing like this, is your R/R, you can take this long, probably over todays highs, with a stop under the lows, you probably definitely don't want it under the lows, as it is probably going to continue to trend down in that case. IF, they decide to take it up, I could see if going back to the 20 "area".

Here's another one I would like, if I "did" stocks, MO, it's a sin stock of course, and will do what it always does, even during a depression, as people will probably smoke more under the stress. It has a yield of about 8%, which means it would pay for itself in about 12 1/2 years (hahahahah, OK, that's a joke). The RSI2 at the top is diverging against the lows, which is good. When you look at the cool uptrend it had on the left, it may take a year to get back to the 20 "area".

2:00pm: I didn't do much today, I was to busy turning my task manager on and off to see if my computer was running slow or some thing, plus I was checking the calendar to see if this was a holiday. Very "heavy" feeling market, I don't like it.

We went down around mid-day when some of those nasty old Republican senators came on TV and said there was no stinking way they were going to vote for the bail out. Then, we went up later as the Union cheerleaders, some times called Democrats, were voting on it in the house. It cracks me up to no end, Chenney was running around urging passage of the bail out, hahahahaha, obviously he has some skin in the game, he's probably in a panic over the billions he's going to lose when his outfit, some times called Haliburton, no longer is going to get those no-bid projects in Iraqi. Wad ever.

The Q's never filled the gap, never even came close, I'm really losing interest until we work some of this over bought off, we worked some of it off on that 60min, but the daily is looking preeeeetty scary, we put on a nasty looking red doji type candle on it, the RSI is over bought, and the Stoch is over bought, AND, hooked down today, YUCKO!! Volume was the lowest since the day after thanksgiving, lower even than the day before (that's why I kept checking the calendar, I could swear it's a vacation day).

I'm still in some stuff, the Uggie (it filled monday's gap), also the UYM, I sold the AMAT calls but still have the INKY calls but my finger is on the mouse on them, my income plays PVX and AAV, some bonds, etc etc etc, but I am not going to initiate any new positions until we get a correction, the way this market feels, it's going to be one of those fast and violent ones like we had a week ago monday.

7:15am: Futures are just kind of wallowing around, up about 1%. This whole up move came last night after the close, probably on the "rumor" of the auto bail out, it was over by midnight, so we've basically gone no where for nine hours.
I am looking to get long, maybe the Q's, as they have been leading the SPY upward, or maybe back into the SSO, I'll probably get more bang for the buck with them. I want to see the gap fill from monday on the Q's first, that will reduce my risk, as at this point, the nearest true stop is under the lows from last week, but for shorter term risk management, I would not want to see the Q's get under 28.50, at that point they would probably continue on down to last week's low's, so I may put it there, that point would be about 24.50 on the SSO. My target's are the November highs, and believe it or not both of them are 34.
Good luck out there today.

5:00am: Futures are surging as the "Street" loves it, it appears Washington has agreed on blowing another 15 billion dollars of tax payer money, Bush, Democrats agree on bailout plan , ES is up 1.75% and climbing, DOW about 130 points.
I said last night that I think the pattern points up, quite a ways up actually, but keep in mind that over the past year, every one of these stinking "bail out plans" that gave an excuse to Da Boyz to gap us up in the morning, ended up being a sell the world signal. Other than those obnoxious christmas songs that the radio stations play 24/7, I keep hearing this voice in my head, saying over and over, "This time it's different".


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