Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Now EOD 12/09/08




2:15pm: Screw the market, I see BZ left a comment this morning, I hope every thing is all right, I get the impression it is, as he hasn't lost his sense of humor.
The 15min chart on the Q's at the bottom just blasted off right out of the open, this usually screws me for the day, as I certainly won't chase the stupid thing, besides, I was a little busy with my Uggie, selling a little more of it this morning, a couple of option trades, blah blah blah. The 15 is setting up just a little "wisp" of a head and shoulders, the 60min above it has a pointy vertical triangle type thingey, anyway, a break below the open on monday will UNDOUBTEDLY lead to a gap fill, just under 29, at that point, who in the frick knows!!! The Stoch on that 60 has just broken under the over bought 80 level, so that has room to run on the down side, althought the CCI and RSI are both breaking to the upside, so maybe it's one of those things where the Stoch only goes to the 50 level, and then bounces back up again. Like I've said, I won't REALLY get interested until that gap fill, then I'll see how it reacts.
My Fibonacci retracements go from the November highs to the november lows (ain't that cool, we had our high for the whole series in November, and then we had the five year low the same month, HAH!), what I find interesting is that the gap fill on the SPY is almost exactly at that 50% retracement level. The 50% retracement level on the Q's is sitting exactly on the open from monday, I don't know why I find that interesting, but I do. The Stoch on both those daily's has moved into over bought territory, while the RSI has broken below the 80 level on the SPY, not quite yet on the Q's.
We had our first decent snow storm of the season last night, so the doors are nailed shut, and the count down to March 1 has begun. The big thing about the snow that really bug's me man, is I can't get very much exercise, so since I can't work the alcohol off by sweating it out, I don't drink any more, I don't drink any LESS, I just don't drink any more. Which remind's me, ummmm......

7:00am: I eat a lot of pork (those damn Moo Cow's are to expensive for me), so this is a natural. The chart looks interesting to me, I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to any funnymental reasons to take it, but your R/R is pretty tight, it "could" "probably" "maybe" "possibly" go back to the 20 dollar area.
Futures have continued to grind lower after the premarket open, down about .61%, the Q's are leading the charge lower down 47 cents or 1.60%. I will only get interested in a long setup, if we fill the gap from yesterday, and set up some kind of turn around type pattern.
Good luck out there today, Uuuummmm, pooooork chooooops!

6:00am: The premarket just opened, futures are up very slightly, about 1.50 points on the ES, DOW about 35, in a turn around from last night, after the four horsemen earnings warnings. I know it's just a stinking miracle, but the move up started at exactly 3:30am ET, when nobody (in their right mind at least), is manning the station. "THEY" do this, naturally, to keep up the illusion that we are "Climbing the Wall of Hope", but it's pretty obvious to me that earnings next month are going to be worse than a disaster, with TI coming out last night and dropping their forecast by 50%, this, like only a month after they reported and gave the current forcast, that they lowered last night. Warning season, which start's after the first of the year, is probably going to be a busy one. That's good for the Street of course, because it lower's expectations, and then when the crooks report, they magically beat their lowered guidance by a penny, and wooooo hooooo, let's take'em to da moon, for a couple of days, hahahahaha.
The futures took off dead south after the open, probably trying to correct some of the over night pump, the daily pivot on the ES is sitting at 902, which is a few points lower than where they are now, and could be a target going into the real open. Regardless of what I think, I have to respect this pump effort, if they are serious about a little pull back to work off the intraday over bought conditions, I wouldn't want to see it go much further than filling the gap from yesterday, any thing more than that, and we go after the low's of last week.

PAUL B. FARRELL New bubblebuilding in U.S. , Paul do crack me up. I guess, being human, I read people who think exactly like me, hahahahaha.

MARSHALL LOEB After 64 years on Street, time to retire Arthur Gray thought he'd seen everything over 86 years, but the madness of 2008 has persuaded him to retire."
Hmmmm, interesting perspective from some one who has seen it all, 75% cash and the other 25% to use for jumping in and out, now that sounds just about right to me, although I'm using about 15-20%. I'm still out of my bonds as I wait for a pull back, to work off that bubblious run up they had the last two weeks.

1 Comment:

bzbtrader said...

HOG may look encouraging but COW looks pretty dismal.

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