Thursday, December 04, 2008

Now EOD 12/04/08



2:15pm: We rallied this morning, actually taking out the highs of yesterday, for a short time, then, sigh, the auto CEO's began their unseemingly begging, and the longer we went out, the more we dropped, the big dump came with the start of an hour to go, we basically rallied a little the last half hour. A lot of people think we were exiting before the jobs report in the morning, who knows, I think people just sold out of disgust at what they were seeing.
Anyway, the sell off didn't do a lot of damage, we did violate the lower trend line, but held a higher low into the close. HOWEVER, the Stoch is turned down and leaves room for some more selling, as well as the RSI on the daily charts. If I were to guess, I'd say da Boyz scare the shit out of everyone after the report, and then blast us upwards after the "real" open, that's just a guess. This area we are sitting on right now is really critical, if we violate those lower support lines, it's obvious we see the yearly lows again, or, if we can just get over the highs of the last four days, I think we got a shot to go higher. We shall see what we see.

You god damn fricking roach, YRC Worldwide upgraded to neutral at J.P. Morgan , hahahahahaha, I only bring this up because I sold the stupid thing yesterday, hahahaha, oh god, I don't feel bad about it because it was up for like 8 days in a row, I figured it was getting a little, aaaaaahhhhhh, frothy.

Futures are just fricking dumping right now, AT&*T cutting 12,000 jobs, books $600 mln severance costs , that, combined with the lousy same store sales are putting the bears on the offensive, we just broke the over night lows, ES is down almost 2% now, we are trying to find some support at the daily pivot at 853, wad ever.



6:00am: Wow, the futures have just been all over the map in the over nights, we were headed into the depths of hell around 3am ET when this happened, Sweden's Riksbank cuts key rate by 1.75 percentage points , the Indians also lowered rates, the ES rallied 20+ fricking points, we then pulled back for a couple of hours, and then 15 minutes ago European Central Bank cuts key rate to 2.5% from 3.25% , gee minnie christmas, we had a 12 point move in the ES up, and then down, in five fricking minutes. Currently we are down about .80%, or 7 ES points.

Remember, markets ALWAYS go down, when central banks LOWER rates, I know that almost everyone and their brother's uncle's say they go up, that's just not true, I've shown it time and again, central banks only lower rates when things are going very badly, and they are trying to save their economies. EVENTUALLY, the rate cuts take effect, and we start to move up, USUALLY, when banks start to RAISE rates.

I put those charts of the USD, Ultra Semi conductors, and the UYM, Ultra Materials, up there because the risk/reward on them is extremely small, both have completed a five wave elliott count to the down side, and "IF" we are going to move UP, they "could" really go.

Right now we are NOT moving up, the ES is dumping, down 1.15%, or 10 points, as the retailer's keep coming out with their lousy same store sales, all accept Wally World of course, they also got a pump when Donald Trump was spotted in one of the stores shopping, probably with that 55 million he stole from the banks this week when he missed the interest payment, sigh, I wonder when the roach will file BK next.

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