Saturday, November 08, 2008

Saturday 11/8/08

10:15am: Before I leave, I thought I'd show a 10 min chart of the SPY, with the visual indicator on it for the last seven days. This is what makes testing, and equity curves, so stinking hard, as you can see, the thing catches all the big moves, at the arrows, it never turned green once on that big two day drop, but it just tests out like absolute dog shit, and the reason is the circled area, it gives a lot of signals when the market goes flat, and because of the offset on the buys and sells on the candles, it chops the hell out of the profit, for the equity curve. This brings up the main problem, is that, yea yea, you can't take the signal when it's chopping around in a flat market, well, hahahahahaha, how in the hell do you know that??? IF you DON'T take the signal every fricking time, then you miss the big moves when they come.
I actually HATE working on this shit.


I've been working on a "visual" buy and sell indicator strategy type thingey, it's the line that turns green and red on the charts, the red arrow on the monthly chart at the top points to it. LOOKS GREAT, DON'T IT!!!!!!! Hahahahahahah, looks can be deceiving, as the thing tests out like absolute dog shit, I'm not even going to take the time to try and post an equity curve chart on it, just take my word for it. I'm working on it though, once I get the thing to work it will be my gateway to rich's, hahahahahaha!! I'm actually trying to get it to work on shorter time frames, that's what I really want, but it definitely chops the shit out of the curve during flat periods. Of course, no one in their right mind should be trading when the market goes flat anyway, but that is the key, is it not, trying figure out when the stupid thing is going to go flat??!!

Anyway, SIGH, since about half way through the baby bear market starting in 2000 (which setup the current bear, which is probably going to last 20-30 years) the business show's suddenly began to become TA experts, having expert analyst on who would point to certain "indicators" and stuff showing how we were done with the bear, or giving new buy signals, or wad ever. They did this, because of course before then the only analysis they had was what you should be buying, and HOLDING, for a life time of course, as all "investors" should be buy and holders forever. It took'em quite a while to figure out some thing was "wrong", I remember Maria used to have a show on every friday night after the market closed, in which she had on two or three guests who would yell and scream about which stock was going to double during the next week, etc etc etc, I remember quite a few of them, one of them was Joe "The Bull" Bataglia, who, to his credit, turned into Joe "The Bear" the last couple of years.

I'm getting side tracked, my hatred of those idiot yakking yelling screaming fricking talking "heads" that bubble vision STILL has on, the same ones like like those Crudlow and Kramer guys who led the mass's down the tubes, get's me flying off the handle.

This is about a half hour later, I'm still shaking, anyway, this is just for those Mom's and Popsey's who sold every thing at the current bottom that everyone is calling, and have sworn off never "investing" again after losing 40-50% of their IRA's or 401's, or even worse, they are still holding on, because of all the "salesmen", eeeeeerrrrr, "Analyst", who are saying NOW is the time to be getting "back" in the market. What I have noticed, is a lot of them have been talking about the hook in that monthly STOCH, in the circle at the top chart, even more of them are talking about the RSI being under "30", and thus over sold (not shown, but I know they use the 14 setting on it, with 30-70 being the over sold/over bought levels), hey, look, indicators are absolutely worthless, I know so, because I use them all the time, hahahahahaha!!!! Actually, I only have them on, because, well, most people do, and once in a very rare moment in time, they can actually tell a story, but it is mostly in the divergence reading's you get, or, like in BZ's case, you can build a trading system based on them, like the RSI and CCI, if you spend tons of time trying to find the correct settings, that test out really well.

Yea yea yea, that hook is really nice, so is the one on the weekly chart on the bottom, but if you are looking to be a long termer, don't get suckered in by the "salemen's" main sucker line, that being that if you don't get in "NOW", you are going to miss the bulk of the move, 20-30% right off the bat!!! Well, that could be true, if we are going to "V" the economy (maybe Obama will, woooo hoooo), but if you want a very simple little thing that you only need to look at like, maybe once a month, just go to, and check the MACD out. You can see in the monthly chart that the cross over in the circle only missed about 10-15% of the "move", and took the gambling choppy shit out of it. You can also use the weekly chart to help with it, by using the over/under the zero line reading, you can see on the weekly chart it kept you out of the market from the fourth quarter of 2000, and got you back in, in the second quarter of 03', about the same time the cross over came on the monthly chart. Then, on that weekly chart, it kept you in the market up until December of last year, and you would have been out of the market since then, getting your 1% in your money market accounts (hahahahaha, damn fricking roach government).

Anyway, that's my two cent gift to all the Mom's and Popsey's this weekend, a very simple little thing to keep an eye on once in a while. I circled the monthly MACD in 01' and now to show that we are probably months and months and months, hell, maybe years, from another signal, even the weekly is just horrible right now, hey Joe, just kick back and suck on that beer for a while, you got pleeennnnnty of time to put your money at risk.

1 Comment:

sysin3 said...

No, zero, nada, zippo DJ-30 stocks are above their rising 200 dma.

Think I saw that back in 2000, 2001, sumpin like dat.

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