Monday, October 27, 2008

Now EOD 10/27/08


6:35pm: The NYSE made new lows for the year today................. BUT, they made less 52 week lows than they did on friday, PLUS, the A/D line continues to move up, which means.................................. I'M A BRAINLESS FRICKING OPTIMIST!!!!! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!
Futures are actually UP about 1/2% right now, wooooo hooooo, could be the big one coming.
And then, there's THIS chart, ouchey pinchey cadrone!!!! We are just moveing through the 50 week moving average, when we last did this in 01', we lost another 38%. That's just the start, if we get below the closing lows in 02', at 81.44, woooooooo weeeeee, we got nothing but clear air down to that little ittsy bitsy teenie weenie pivot we had around the 60 "area".
I'm depressing myself, I gotta have a little more picker upper stuff.


2:15pm: THE "TRIANGLE" STILL LIVES!!!!!!! Hahahahaha, yea, well, for a little while anyway. Huge sell off the last half hour, more, and more, and more redemptions, sigh, get a life people, BUY THIS THING!!!!
If, or when, we break through the big T, it's adios MF'er, even more so than we already have. I have no idea what may provide a reason to buy this thing, every one and their brother's uncle know about the rate cut wednesday, which brings me to think that may be a huge sell the news thing, ouchey. I don't see why the election would matter, we pretty much know who's going to win that, and what kind of policies we have coming down the road.

Humpt!! It's to bad, it looked encouraging for awhile, after acting OK after the big Asian sell off. Oh well, back to bed, and face a new day tomorrow. Lator.

7:00am: " Sell-off steaming on ": Aaaaaaaaahhhhh, actually, NO, they are not steaming on, the ES futures, above, actually double bottomed about 4:30am ET this morning, and have been in rally mode every since, this, after breaking the previous lows of the year at 837, actual low at 825, so if the FUTURE's trader's are a "leading" indicator, the lows have been tested, and have held.

This, of course, don't mean diddly squat, as even Goldman by themselves can control the low volume futures markets prior to the real open, but it is encouraging. The daily PIVOT on the ES is 863, we just went through it, and touched the previous closing lows, going positive for a few seconds, before the predictable sell action at that point.

Anyway, I'm shutting down and reloading, and then laying down for a while to close my eyes, and go into my meditation mode, NA NA NA NA NA NA NA!
Good luck out there today.

4:30am: Futures are down this morning, ES down 3.5%, DOW about 220. I had a column to post last night after the open of the futures, as the index's were all up, DOW about 71 points, but I thought I'd wait to see how Asia and Europe traded, Hang Seng crumbles 12.7% under barrage of selling , Five-year FTSE 100 low , the Japanese government is looking to intervene in their markets to support them Japan to intervene , all the typical stuff.
As I write the SPY is projected to open up just about right on the low of the year, it's about a dime above it, of course if we break this descending triangle to the down side, which is what it's looking like, the initial down side target would be the height of the triangle from the bottom of it, that's about 22 points, which puts the target at about 61, or 610 on the SPX, which is about 167 points UNDER the 02', sigh, I sure hope that's not going to be the case. I guess the SSO would go to about 6.
Of course, you never know, we "could" hold the bottom here after the open.
Here's some breath charts:

This is the 52 week high/low differential on the NYSE. The red circle shows the previous double bottom attempt in September, you can see how the new lows accellerated into the bottom and then broke through it. Unfortunately, it looks just about the same now.

The OEX, or S&P 100 option traders, are supposed to be the "smart money", that's neither here nor there, but it's never a good sign when the P/C, put/call ratio, starts accellerating to the upside as we approach the bottom. When you look at past history on it, the OEX traders usually go the opposite way, the P/C moves higher as the index goes higher, and lower as it goes lower, as they like to bet on reversals, obviously, they are not betting on a reversal here.

2 Comments:

sysin3 said...

I'm baaack !

Did the market do anything fun while I was gone ? ;-)

Cucca said...

That was quick, couldn't stand it, eehhh!!!

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