Friday, October 24, 2008

Now EOD 10/24/08



2:15pm: YUCKO!! God I hate it when they do that, they have a chance to wash us out into the depths of hell, and "some body" takes us straight up out of the chute. Wad ever! The Q's obviously broke their lows, the SPY came within about 25 cents, SO THE OCTOBER 10 BOTTOM STILL LIVES, HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
You can see the "triangle" has now morphed into a descending triangle, YUCKO, to top that off we put a "Queen and King" candle setup on it at the end of the day, the Queen is the green candle, the King the red candle, I'll leave it to your imagination about what the result of that is usually supposed to be.
I heard a lot of chatter about monday and tuesday, in prior bear markets those two days have a history of being very baaaaaaaaad, so don't get herded over the cliff.
I had one of those cute little things happen to me today, I'm still laughing over it, I took some long legs on the spreads and with about an hour and a half to go I decided to take profits in them, wooo hooo, anyway, the spreads in the UYG average about 15 cents, so this one I'm asking at a dime, right, under the bulk of the asks, we go up, I raise it, we go down, I lower it, I mean, I'm so far down, I ain't in any hurry on any thing any more, I have a number and I want my number, but it's under my ask, but above their bid, you get what I'm doing here, I don't want to hit my number, cause I figure they'll drop. So we drop, so I took the order off, so then we get this little pump heading into the last hour, so I just said SCREW it, and put my number out there, and it drops right away on the bid, hahahaha, typical, so at that point I'm done, and just leave it there, and what happens, is we actually start to drop a little, and I think I'm done for the day, and BINGO, hahahahahahaha, some one couldn't stand it and hits it. I'm telling you, it reminds me of ME, hahahahaha, I'm always the last idiot in. I'm not picking on who ever it was, it's just that I was laughing my ass off about how often I've done that.
Hey, look, it's getting pretty bad here, if I can't get some entertainment, I'm not doing this any more. Have a good weekend.


7:00am: Well, we took the October 10 low's out, and then promptly rebounded. Naturally, it goes with out saying that any rebound will be used to sell, or set up cheaper hedges, etc etc. It's just a matter of time, next week??? before we take out the 02' lows, on the SPY that is 76.72, hell, that's only seven points away, we may do that today. The mutual fund redemptions could be massive this afternoon, going into the close, hard to say. I just hope they don't close the markets, I personally think that would be a mistake.

I'm going shut down, and clean every thing out, and hope my Tradestation doesn't freeze up, cut the charts and stuff down to the bare minimum, etc etc. I probably won't do any thing until the first hour is done, and see where we are.

Good luck to you out there today.

6:00am: When you get the chance, probably later today or when ever they post their interviews on their blog, CNBC had a phone call interview with Mohamed El-Erian of Pimco, excellent stuff. He said this started yesterday with the unraveling of leverage in some of the "fringe" markets around the world. This, of course, brings a question into my little mind, about if the "players" knew about this, why the pump into the close yesterday?? Hahahaha, roaches. Anyway, he said that this is REALLY good, as he thinks the deleveraging is going to get flushed out over the next several days, and we can start getting back to close to "normal", and start thinking about mundane thing like the economy, and when we do, then the REAL selling will start, hahahaha!

The SPY just opened up, it's down 6.4 points, or 7%.

5:00am: The reason's for this dump don't really matter, besides, there's to many of them to list anyway, just a continuation of the destruction of this country by the current administration, starting with Chenney's infamous "SO!" answer when asked about the costs of the war and the outrageous deficits.
Anyway, Asia and Europe got it going with a 10% drop in Japan, and several GDP reports coming out showing negative growth, etc etc etc. I find it fascinating about that pump we had into the close yesterday, a really convienent sucker move, as it undoubtedly triggered a lot of trading reversals, IE taking the hedges off, or reversing and going long into the depths of hell.

This article is interesting, but probably not for the reasons the author thinks, peter Brimelow P/E slippage matterof perspective , number one, it's just amazing about how the Street salesmen continualy warp the numbers that they use to arrive at all these "cheap" valuations, when this is all over people like John Hussman will coming out smelling like a rose, as he was one of the few honest individuals, and he warned us for quite some time. The Street salesmen, eeeerrrr, analyst, still have completely unreal expectations for forward earnings next year, that could easily get cut in half, meaning that the S&P has to come down, well, eeeerrrr, I don't really want to think about it.
I could see a disaster coming if they shut the exchages down, what are they going to do if they shut it down this morning, and then try to open monday, and the futures go limit down on monday before the open???? That means the DOW would be down 1100 points before they ever open up.
I of course, am getting slaughtered, but my expousure is limited, and luckily I still had on quite a few hedges. I suppose it's just human nature, but I feel better that I'm not going down alone, I know that of course, Warren Buffet thought it was time to get in, Barry Ritholtz, Charles Kirk, Hussman himself, etc etc etc, if I'm going down, I ain't going down alone, hahahahahaha, sigh!

The way I'm reacting of course, is to buckle down and work even harder, there's nothing like a little adversity to get the juices flowing, I hope you are all right.

4:45am: BOINK! It's a trifecta, NQ just went limit down at -85 points.

4:37am: The DOW have gone limit down, they are halted, the NQ, or Q's, go limit down at 85 points, they are down 79.50 points or 8.34%, so they will probably limit that down. The nearest information I have is that the futures exchanges will not open until 2:30pm ET, but they will not trade as long as they are below the limit down threshold.

4:30am: The ES futures have been HALTED, limit down, at 60 points or 6.56%, it appears the DOW is still trading, it's down about the same, 550 points or 6.2%, that will probably be halted as well. It would probably not surprise me that they close the markets, or at the least delay the open this morning.

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