Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Now EOD 10/22/08

7:05pm: Just a little "sentiment" thingey, CNBC is probably the most NEGATIVE I have EVER seen them, I mean, they are running shit after shit about the end of the world for god's sake, this, out of an outfit, that didn't even get CLOSE to being remotely negative, until the bottom in 02', when that Kramer guy finally said to sell every thing (didn't he just do that last week, and now he say's to buy?? I don't know, I don't watch him). I don't know, it just seems kind of funny to me.

6:305pm: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, this, is one of the funniest thing's I've ever seen, Take your pick! , Captain Kirk posted it, it's about the possible S&P earning's going forward. All you have to look at, is the top line, 21.1, or what ever it is, that's the ACTUAL earnings over the last year, the rest are all forecast's, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrr, GUESS'S!!!!! If the consumer truly fall's apart and, heaven forbid, tries to save money or don't spend more than they make, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, that thing is going to go down so far, well, I don't even want to talk about it. Actually, when it gets to 10, and the average dividend yield equals 10, then, yea, the S&P will be fairly valued. You know of course, that ANALYST, were STILL, expecting a 40% increase in earning's for the fourth quarter. I mean, forget the Hankey Pankey induced crisis, just going on actual funnymental's, mean's this market is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, over valued.

OOOOOOOHHHHHH NOOOOOO, you fricking idiot bloggers (hahahahahaha), don't tell me you are still bullish stay bullish .

Hahahahahahaha, cudo's to Captain Kirk, he does have a sense of humor, although I resent his trying to intrude into my comedy store space "Government Sachs recommends selling Citigroup and buying Morgan Stanley".

5:30pm: God you people get excited, HEY, calm down out there people!!!! Hahahahaha, after all, I'm the one getting their ass kicked (I assume you aren't stupid enough to be in this market, like some one I know pretty well). I did all right today on the day trades, however, one thing I notice on the UYG is that the options are "freezing", we are getting so volatile that when we dumped into the close today, the sold calls didn't move the roachie MF'ers, but hey, it goes with the territory in a market like this.
ANYWAY, we set a new closing low today, woooo hoooo (that's a little wooo hooo). Now, personally, I expect we break the prior lows by probably, aaaaahhhhhh, 10-15%???? Who fricking knows. Anyway, here are a few "breath" indicators I have on my own desk top, my buddy at Technicalindicators.com is usually late, and besides, my Inet is not working right and I'm on my regular Internet Explorer, and I haven't checked his site.



Even though, EVEN THOUGH, we closed at a new low today, the New Highs/ New Lows differencial is not even CLOSE to where it was at the prior lows.

The Up/Down volume differential is putting on just a SLIGHT divergence.

The Advancing/Declining Issues differencial is also putting on just a SLIGHT divergence.
This probably don't mean diddly squat, but HEY, Ya gotta start some where.


2:15pm: Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, my most favorite hated peice of junk over priced, wad ever, I can't even come up with enough names for this thing, AMZN, is getting slaughtered in the after hours, hahahahahahahahaha!!!! Don't worry though Q lover's, AMGN beat and is making up for some of the drop.

Weeeeeeeell, nice day, YUCKO!! I wish we would have tested and get it over with, close, but no banana, we DID, however, test the "triangle", actually it was really cool, as they hit the 5 point, popped through it, and then closed back over it, nice Yob SPY traders!!! SIGH, anyway, I seriously have much doubt about what direction we are heading, at this point I hope, rather than testing we just break through the prior lows and get it over with, like, maybe another 10-15% lower. We shall see.

Bloomberg, and I think FOX, kept saying we were making five year lows in the S&P, NO STINKING WAY, hell, we didn't even break the prior lows, I don't know where they get their information from, probably Hankey Pankey.

7:15am: Futures have been pushing 4% down, currently 3.4%, ordinarily this would be a buy the world open, of course, these are not ordinary times. This could have some thing to do with the Lehman CDS sales, but of course, no one is saying anything, where's Hanky Panky out there assurring everyone??? Part of the Nixonian mentality of this administration I suppose.
Anyway, good luck out there today, signing off....3.....2.....1......BOINK!

6:00am: Futures have dropped about 2.5%, at one point they were down over 3%.

This, is EXACTLY, what we don't fricking need!!! "Paulson on prevention Treasury and FDIC are working with the Fed and Fannie Mae to prevent millions of home foreclosures, Treasury secretary says."
Hey, you Clueless idiots, there are millions of RESPONSIBLE American's waiting in the wing's, to take the idiot's out who bought thing's they had NO CHANCE of paying for. BUT, they are not going to BUY these homes from those udder things, until prices get down to an AFFORDABLE area. For some reason, these millionaires residing in our Federal Government have no comprehension of the term "affordable", they seem to think some one making the average $50,000 wage in PrunePickerVille can "afford" a $500,000 house, hahahahahaha!!! Take the last two zero's off that price, and YES, that would be AFFORDABLE!

I hate to say it, but this sure sounds like panic out of GM, GM mulls alternatives.

A sign of the times to come, considering that we NOW have a socialist government like Argentina?? Kirchner move rocks markets Pension-move fears slam Argentine stock market.
Tokyo plunges nearly 7%

4:30am: A couple of decent articles this morning, Todd, of course, Bear trap: the other side of the trade , and even this udder guy had a decent article for a change The difference between panic and capitulation . I mentioned a while back that I didn't like the excessive bullshitishness being associated with this panic drop "buying opportunity of a life time" type mentality. Bottom's are not even close to bottom's when "people" are associating with a great buying opportunity, bottom's are made when no one is around, or left standing, to take advantage of them. When CNBC, FOX business news and Bloomberg are gone, and rather than people talking about the "great" buying opportunity this panic is providing, at cocktail parties, and instead are talking about the stupid tin roof leaking at their homeless shelter while standing in the soup line, then we might be close to a bottom, hahahahahahahaha.

It's interesting that they both included 1929 in their column, well, here's a couple of charts of that period:

1929: Both of the drops look very familiar, if you know what I mean. I definitely DO NOT want to see a 1929 type ending to this thing, if was three stinking years before the market started to bottom, after that first sucker rally that carried into the middle of 31', but with the housing market just dead for a number of years, which is also going to keep banking profits depressed, it's not out of the range of possibilities.

1937: The dump in 37', now, this I can handle, you can see that familiar drop again, then, we came back in about a month and a half and took it out, then went back up and moped around for four months, then had another "little" panic that took us down about another 15% to the final low, THEN, we had the sucker rally that took us up, it was a sucker rally because we basically went side ways for years, into the 1950's actually, BUT, at least we went up and down during that period, rather than straight down. I sure hope we end up like this, rather than 29'.

I hate to keep showing these long term charts, but I look at them to keep it in perspective of where we are. I mean, my most vivid images are of the "Great Bear" from 2000-02', but those images are from the slaughter of the NasDogs, the DOW "only" lost 39% during that period. Well, here we are, and so far the low has been 44% lower, and ONLY in a fricking year, compared to two years before in the DOW. I mean, this truly has been a "crash". On a side note, one little encouraging thing is the Stochastic, it's more over sold on this monthly chart than we ever got previously. That don't mean diddly squat of course, it can, and probably will, stay over sold for long periods of time.

4:00am: Futures are down about 2%, DOW about 155 points, even the stupid NQ or Q's are down .75%, what happened to all the enthusiasm over AAPL?? The sad part is that the ghouls have no news they are using to pump us downward, I imagine it's just the general overall malaise that is threatening our economy.
I've been concentrating on that stupid triangle on the SPY so much, and day trading against my "positions", I didn't even look at that daily chart I put up of the SPY yesterday, wooooo weeee, that's an inside day AND an NR7, narrowest range of the last seven days. NR7's "usually" lead to a range expansion day, IE, a big move, and with the way that bar was a gap down bar, and finished with a red lower body, AND, the futures being weak, it could all be pointing to a trend day DOWN. It don't mean it's gonna happen of course, "some body" might come riding in on their white horse to save us, again, but I will be aware of it.

2 Comments:

sysin3 said...

shee-it. you thinking too hard there, dog ;-)

i'm going to bed and then going on vacation.

keep it between the bollinger bands until next week huh ?

Cucca said...

Have Fun!

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