Monday, October 20, 2008

Now EOD 10/20/08

6:30pm: Does anyone know what time the Lehman CDS sale has to be completed tomorrow??? I've looked every where.
Futures were down fairly decently, DOW about 40 points, even after the AXP stuff, but they have rallied some what, I want it to gap down so I can dump some more short hedge stuff. We are getting some pretty lousy forward looking guidance for the next two quarters.
I'm watching a guy on bubble vision who has a chart of historical housing prices in comparison to GDP, according to hysterical levels, housing still needs to go at LEAST another 50% to get to historical norms. Like I haven't been saying that for two years.

3:20pm: Cater Worth, on Fast Money, just said his firm is ALL IN!!!!GO FOR IT!!!! GET IN, BEFORE IT'S TO LATE, WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOO, GET IN GET IN!!!!!

WHEW, man o' man, I hope I pushed the button fast enough, hahahahahaha!!! Of course, THEY are ALREADY all in, me, I'll have to wait for the first pull back before I look at getting LONGER, IE I'm already long (unfortunately), when asked about the low volume on the rallies, he said that it's important to start seeing more volume on rallies, but that the capitulatory nature of the volume during the dump is more important at this point.
The 60min chart is pretty over bought, and will be more so when (if) we gap it up tomorrow. I will want to work some of that off, before I add, plus, I really want to use options, but I will not, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, be buying options and holding them over night, until we get a volatility dump, IE, the options get cheaper.
Some thing I notice that has been a little over looked, is the LEI's came in positve today for the first time in five months.

My goodness, that SPY daily chart is a mess, I'll clean it up when I find time (I'm just soooooo busy!).

2:15pm: We finished higher across the boards, we are actually higher right now, as AXP beat in the after hours. The Q's and the financials both under performed, but of course the financials are up big in the after hours. I put three 60 min charts up, the bottom one shows we broke the intermediate upper trend line going into the close, the second one is the one I showed yesterday, we broke that, the third one includes the after hours and premarket, you can see we closed right on it.
I guess you could say we've broken to the upside, if so, I want to see us take out the high from last tuesday around 105.53, OR, on any pull back I want to see another higher low.
I don't believe this for a second, hahahahaha, which means of course we blast off, which is just fricking FINE with me, go up bitch!!!!

6:30am: I see waaaaaaaay to much bullishness still left: INVESTING A market playbook for trying timesYou survived the crash. Now what? Five tips for buying stocks that can survive, and even thrive, in this bear market. Surprising strength likely to be seen in U.S. used-home sales , Value in what consumers won't give up ,
You can buy into this bear market if you know the traps

"you survived the crash"?? Hmmmm, I get the distinct impression everyone think's it's all over.

6:10am: It's nice to see one of the former "Boyz" get up off the mat, shake the blues off, and get back on stage at the comedy store, Goldman has upgraded AMAT and down graded INTC, Applied Materials upped at Goldman on valuation Goldman downgrades Intel, sees margin pressure . I'm not "doing" stocks these days, but AMAT has always been one of my favorite NasDogs, mainly because of the CEO, they are currently at 11.99 and reached a low during this dump of 11.11, their low in 02' was 10.26, I mean, hey, an "investor" could probably do a lot worse, especially since they've made a pretty hefty investment in the future of alternative energy.

5:30am: Futures have increased their rise, currently up about 1.8%, ES about 16, DOW about 116, and Q's up about 45 cents, the ES had been up about 15 points higher, or about 3%, but have pulled back to test the daily Pivot area. Since about friday morning at 6:30am ET, the ES has set up a series of higher lows and higher highs, an uptrend, culminating in the high going into the last hour on friday. It's hard to say, but they may have set up a lower high on this last drop, about 15 points short of the firday high, plus this drop to the Pivot took out a previous higher low, so the trend "could" be changing back again, we shall see. Monday's have been particuarlly nasty over the last month, it would be nice to see a positive start to the week for once.

Even with all the volatility last week, it was nothing compared to the week before, so the index's set up "inside" weeks, where the range was contained within the prior week. On intraday trading, inside bars make up a big part of my trading, so I expect this pattern on the weekly to provide some possible fire works. I went back and looked at inside weeks on the index's, and in the last ten years you can probably count them on one hand. They usually ended up being reversal bars within the context of the existing pattern, meaning if this holds up, it "could" be a reversal to the upside, hahahahahaha! I'm telling you, I think I'm just going to concentrate on that 60 min pattern, and work off of that.


sysin3 said...

eh, i smell dead cat

Cucca said...

God you are negative!!!! Be POSITIVE, like me, I'm POSITIVE (I'm positive I'm going to get out just as soon as I can, faster than a dead cat can go splat!!! hahahahahaha).

Cucca said...

Actually, this might get some legs, we may get an election pop (or dump!), there's going to be a lot of fundies trying to chase performance, trying to save their jobs, etc etc.
Don't mistake me though, the economy is going to get much, much worse, Joe the plumber is not going to be spending money on new pipe wrench's.

sysin3 said...

well, i can't call the market. "down" seems more likely to me than "up".

but i got $20 that says the Sarah bitch is going back to moose hunting, directly ;-)

Cucca said...

Hahahaha, you are truly Eeeeeevil!

sysin3 said...

not me, my mama is evil, personified.

best i can do is cancel her vote for the nasty, but quite satisfactory looking, governor from alaska ;-)

told her that just last night. enjoyed it, too.

so yeah, i guess i am evilll.

next, i'll tell her that her heroine suze orman is, gasp .... "gay".

bwahhhhaaaaa !

Cucca said...

Orman is, really??!! She is kind of horsey faced looking.
Sorry, I actually kind of like Palin's refreshingness.

sysin3 said...

well, i like Sarah's, uh, appearance. but i think her cognitive skills rank only slightly above "moss". and, by implication, the guy who chose her to be his replacement.

i have a great problem with some folks thinking that they are somehow superior to others, simply because the "others" are not quite the "norm".

"pray the gay away" and "this is god's war" are de facto evidence that she is a moron and not fit to lead this (now pitiful) nation.

IMHO and YMMV ;-)

Cucca said...

I didn't know she said that about gay's.
I only said what I said, because I hate every one or thing that is involved with government, especially with FED in front of it, and it just piss's me off to see those A-hole air head egg heads back east, talk about her being the govenor of Alaska as not being qualified. I don't know if she would do any worse than Bushie or not, but just because she's not out of the Harvard-Yale-Princeton etc etc etc bunch, does NOT disqualify her from being able to lead the country.
Four of the last five Presidents were govenor's for crimeney sake.

Cucca said...

It don't matter any way, Obama Banana has a lock, and then his vice president steps aside for Pelosi, hahahahahahahahahahahaha!

sysin3 said...

well, when i first heard of her, i thought, "well yeah, here's a libertarian kind of person who can appeal to both sides".

but the more i heard from her mouth, the more "nutjob" i thought she was.

she just scares the living crap out of me. so does mccain.

and so do obama and biden, but for different reasons.

we're screwed, no matter what.

but obama does not consort with folks who believe in warding away witches (as does Palin, fact).

well, at least i hope he doesn't ;-)

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