Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Now EOD 10/15/08

7:35pm: I'm not watching the debate, but I went to Bloomberg to check the futures out, and since the "debate" started, the DOW has dropped about 70 points. Obviously, the "market" is saying, neither one of them have the foggiest fricking idea, hahahahahaha! What's going on, of course, is we are "testing", like crazy. With the way this wild ass market is going, I have no idea if we hold or not, which puts me in a real uncomfortable position. If I think we are going to hold, naturally, I would add to my "position", or at the least, take profits in my puts on the SSO. I honestly don't have any idea, this "retest" is coming to fast, we should have consolidated for a while first, rather than one stupid "up" day, then the gap up with the huge failure. I don't know off hand what the exact numbers are, I'll post them tomorrow, but we have to hold above last friday's lows, or, take those lows out, and then rebound right away. I'm not sure if we take them out tomorrow, but if we can get close, and hold, without taking last friday's low's out, and then like get a little gap up on friday, we might have a temporary low in place. Tough to say right now, I don't know, if we don't hold, woooooo weeeeee, it could be draft down city, as every one beat's each other over the head, trying to get out of Dodge.
This is probably the most interesting market times I've ever seen.

2:30pm: I was going to mention the NasDogs might test friday's lows, but it's already happened in the after hours, after EBAY beat current earnings, but gave a piss poor forecast, the Q's are currently at 30.30, so they aren't really testing right at this moment.

Anyway, this is the single most anticipated "retest" probably in the history of "retests", which scares me to death, hahahahahahaha. The Q's may be a leading indicator, as it appears they will test first, maybe of what's to come in the other index's, I see no reason it dosn't happen tomorrow. The only "good" thing about today, is it was on lighter volume than yesterday. The internals, down below, are showing some, aaahhh, well, I'm not sure.

The A/D differencial is back where it was last friday.

The Put/Call is interesting, it's considerably lower than last friday, which could be good.

This shows up in the OEX.X, who are supposed to be the most savey option traders in the markets, they have actually been buying more calls than puts.

The New Highs/New Lows are not even close to last friday, but I get the feeling that if we break the lows, that may change very fast.

Pretty bold call by Todd, Have we seen the 2008 trading low? , but, it is a call.
Good luck out there today.

6:35am: Welcome to the middle of October, and speaking of which, futures are indicating that we are just about at the midpoint of this bear market, as all futures are down about 2-3%, DOW about 200 points.
Supposedly a couple of big banks dissappointed in their earnings, but for god's sake, THAT couldn't surprise any body, could it??
Retail sales fell Retail sales tumble 1.2% in September , but THAT couldn't surprise any body, cout it???
The inflation report was good Producer prices fall 0.4% in September, energy prices down
U.S. Oct. Empire State index falls to record low -24.6 , this was a bad report, but THAT couldn't surprise any body, could it?? Empire State plunges , by the way, in the category of you learn some thing every day, I didn't know that the Empire State report is a proxy for the ISM report, that comes out the first of each month, after the Empire report. Is the Ocotober ISM report going to hit record lows, hmmmmm??!!
We get the beige book at 2:00pm ET, the stupid thing has been moving the market lately.


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