Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Now EOD 10/08/08

I was sitting around and thinking about "stuff" tonight (actually, I was more likely thinking about "drinking" "stuff"), and I was thinking about the bottom in 02' and 03', and about AAPL. I know the chart is GLW, but in 03' I was selling my last house, before this one, and I sold it in April, just about the bottom in the market, but of course, my life was in upheaval, getting the house ready to sell, I actually started in October of 02', so I sell it, then I'm moving 30 years of "stuff" that had accumulated during my life with my sweet heart, and then buying a new place, moving there (Lake Havasu, AZ), etc etc. Anyway, just before I moved out of the old place, I had no idea when I might be on the internet again (it ended up being two months), so just before I left, one of the last things I did was buy a ten spot of call options on AAPL, I forget how many months out they were. AAPL was trading about 15 bucks then, I think I brought the 20 stike because I'm a cheap bastard. So anyway, imagine my pleasant surprise at the moving in gift I got, for when I finally got on the internet, they were up $2.40 from where I bought them, hahahahahaha (I should move more often).
I only bring this up, because also during that time, was one of my great NON thing's, I didn't do, in fact, I was actually looking at GLW when I brought the Apples. GLW was trading for about a buck, all the doom's day analyst were talking BK, etc etc. I was thinking to myself, now, here's one of the great American companies of all time, they own just about every glass patent ever, they own a whole fricking town in NY, I thought they had been one of the original members of the DOW, I mean, they made a bad decision in banking every thing on the fiber optic's craze, maybe they make it. I mean, I could have thrown a measly 5K at them or some thing, and made some serious change, down the road.
Anyway, I'm thinking about this tonight, and I start to laugh, because I'm saying to myself, well, that's funny, I haven't heard hide nor hair of them for a while. They had been in the news quite a bit, as the pump master's were out in full force, when they were trading around 25, saying they were the greatest fricking think EVER, as the flat panel TV thing was going to be huge, and they are probably going to fricking 500, like GOOG, blah blah blah blah!!!!
Anyway, so here they sit, at 12 bucks or so. This is not about buying them, it's about how I think, and how it inhibits me from being a billionare doing this, because I won't touch them. It goes back to AAPL, when I brought it at 15 bucks, that was my mark, and when they started to go up, I wouldn't touch them, because, dammit, they were a fricking 15 dollar stock, not a fricking 40, 65, 99, 150, 200 hundred dollar stock, hahahahahaha! It will always be the same thing with me, with GLW, they are a one dollar stock (and may be that shortly, hahahahaha). Plus, they committed one of the cardinal sin's, that I will never forgive any American company for, when they built that 362 million dollar production plant, in Taiwan for god's sake. That was it, I mean I wouldn't even buy them if, or when, they hit a buck again, just on general principles.
Anyway, this is just a note, on why I don't "do" stocks, and why I will never get rich doing what I do (or more to the point, what I "don't" do).

Just a note on the insanity going on, I'm not carrying any put protection on my SSO position, I mean, really, I can't. I use the SPY to do it during the day, as the spreads are waaaaaaaayyyy less than the SSO, but the current 97 stike puts on the SPY, are going for 4.20 for October, they expire in 9 days, meaning you lose .466 cents over night in Theta if you hold these things, meaning if you hold them over a weekend you could lose close to a buck in Theta. And THAT's, if volatility stays at record levels. I mean, if for some reason, we even get a hint of a rally, volatility will dump, and you will lose a hell of a lot more holding those puts than what I mentioned. Anyway, it's a pretty suckie situation.

I'll keep asking the question until I get the answer, can this thing go to zero??????

6:30pm: Hmmmm, there seems to be a lot of discussion as to whether that candle today was a harami spike, a long tailed doji, a clouded doji, the ominous gravestone doji (it can't be, those are only valid at the top of a run up). It has a small body on it, so it's not a true doji, it's definitely long tailed, bottom line the bulls just barely won as it is green, but the bear's had the upper hand by taking it back down (thanks Hanky Panky). Of course, it has to be taken in the context of where it is, IE, after one of the most crushing drops ever in the market. Any thing like this is a victory, hahahahahahaha, at this point any way.
Anyway, futures are up pretty big time in the after hours, all of them about .55%, like the DOW is up about 55 points, ES 5, NasDogs 9, as big blue came out early and reaffirmed, plus their's some other slightly positive news. What this set's up, is the possibility of an abandoned baby, or morning star, or Island reversal in the morning. It won't take much to get the bear's scrambling to take profits, so, hey, you juuuuussstt never know (am I a fricking dreamer, or what!!!). The short selling ban get's lifted at midnight tonight, thank god, since they've put that in effect the markets are down about 18%, lift the fricking ban and let those shorts back in the market, so we can get this thing going up for a while!!!!
In the continuing slaughter good news gets lost, the pending home sales report today was really surprising, but of course, it comes out of NAR, National Association of Realtors, and we all know what a bunch of lying scum bags they are. Speaking of that, I sold my house, on the first walk through, obviously I'm not asking enough, hahahahaha. It ain't gonna happen though, because she wants me to carry the paper, I need the money to cash out my next house in Reno, or where ever my wander lust search ends up. It's not over yet though, I talked to the bank today, they are going to take a look at it. I shall see.

2:15pm: We were looking fairly decent, until after Hanky Panky Paulson did his speech with 45 minutes to go. Most of the selling came in the last 15 minutes, I was listening to a VIX floor trader on Bloomberg, and he said a group of "professional" traders came into the VIX market, and tried to sell the volatility down, I guess it didn't work as we dropped anyway.

The bottom chart is a long term of the SPX, the bottom black line is a trend line that goes to 1982, shuddddddder, I hate to think we go after that. The red line goes from a pivot at the low's in 91' through 95' and just nicks the lows in 02', you can see we are sitting right on it.

The middle chart is the one I had up yesterday, we violated it that line from 98' and the 01' lows, and then popped right back up. It shows up on the daily chart at the top, as basically we opened up right on it. If you look at the tail on the candle, you can see we had a really decent day going for awhile, it's to bad about the selling into the close, it would have been nice to keep that big green candle on there, as we had record volume today, actually, that's wrong, we had more volume on 9/18, but it's still extremely heavy, that would have given "investors" hope that it was a turn around, now, it's just another stupid day.

I get the feeling this is an important area, if we can't hold, I just can't help but think we go after the 02' lows, and then maybe the long term trend line down in the 700 area on the SPX, or 70 on the SPY.

Maybe a miracle will happen, good luck to you.

6:45am: The FED's lowered by 50 basis points, obviously trying to save some ammo for the meeting I guess, on the chart you can see that the ES had dropped to 970, we then got a 70 point rally, and as I write this, we are back at 986, or a drop of 54 points, which puts us 20 points under yesterday's close.
The UYG and SPY have responded to this great news by taking out yesterday's low's, the SPY at 98.40.


sysin3 said...

so .... $700 Billion, Fed buying crap, a 50 bip snip and all we got is this lousy T-shirt that says:

"I got your BS rally ... right down here !"

whippy stuff there

sysin3 said...

I B Moron, revenues up only 5%. My completely unproven suspicion for many years is that they are a little "uninhibited" with their accounting.

My professional opinion, formed over 30 years of close relation, is that their software sucks the big one and they are all assholes.

sysin3 said...

You stubborn old coot ;-)

Yes, it can go to zero. But it cannot go below zero.

Oct 26, 1987 it was 0.94

have a nice day.

Cucca said...

Hahahahahaha, you must be in a good mood tonight. When it gets to one, I will do a vigerous seach to see who that one is, HAH!!
Are you talking about the Interactive platform???
I saw they were up today, I was involved with, aaahhh, udder things.
Wasn't October 97', close to a bottom????

Cucca said...

TYPO ALERT: I meant 87'.

Cucca said...

By the way, you KNOW, my whole point in asking the zero question, is to point out that the thing just keeps getting more and more over sold, leading to the eventually rally.
Captain Kirk was the famous blogger I mentioned yesterday (I think), who said he had never, EVER, lost money when buying the market when the T2108, or what ever it is, got below 10.

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