Monday, October 06, 2008

Now EOW (End of World) 10/06/08

I read a very famous blog site, that I'm a member of, and he stated right off the bat, that he has NEVER lost money, by getting in the market when the stocks above their 200MA falls to under 10, NEVER!!! Both the NYSE and S&P closed under 10 today. I heard the T2108 closed at 4.7 or some thing. Sounds good to me, especially since fast Charlie has been in the market about a week to soon, hahahahahahahahahaha! God, we all have our little "problems", don't we, me, I'm to early to get in, and to early to get out, wad ever, I live with it.
I swear, I mean, I FRICKING SWEAR, that if we just end up higher than we are now, a week from this coming friday, I will never, I MEAN FRICKING NEVER, get in to early again (hahahahahahahaha, yeeeeeaaaa, rrriiiiggghhhtttt, and I'm not going to get up and have another one of my little "stuff" thingey's right now either, hahahahahahaha!!!).

5:30pm: I see why the UYG was going down, BAC is down after announcing earnings early, way to go BAC!! One reason they are down, is they cut their dividend in half, now, I swear, I mean, I FRICKING SWEAR, that Lewis, not two weeks ago, said the dividend was safe!! ARE THESE PEOPLE SKUNK'S OR WHAT!!!!

I forgot to mention some of the internals I saw today, woooooooooooo weeeeeeeeeee, wow, were they impressive, at one point the A/D line was almost 30 to fricking one, I honestly don't remember ever seeing that. Plus, the New Highs/New Lows on the total market, again at one point, was 1600 new lows, to, and get this, just 1, ONE, new high, I wish I would have checked to see who that was, but it wouldn't have mattered, I couldn't see it through my tears, hahahahaha!
I saw Art Cashin because I ended up on Bubble Vision, that dumb ass Bloomberg showed the insanely stupid testimony of Fuld to that congressional committee, geeze, did they dissappoint me, and naturally, FOX was just a mess, just completely worthless.
One of the commentor's mentioned how right on Robert McHugh has been, I agree. Prop's to you Bob.
AAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGG, my UYG is going down in the after hours, last I saw, it was back at my first add this morning, HEY, easy on the UYG in the after hours guys!!!





2:15pm: Well, Art Cashin said it best, "WHAT A DISSAPPOINTING CLOSE"!!!!! What he wanted to see, was a huge sell off going into the close, with a gap down tomorrow morning, my sentiments exactly. Regardless, it is wad it is. The huge rally into the close was due to "rumors" of an emergency G-7, or G-8, what ever they are, meeting, to try and get a co-ordinated world wide rate cut. All I can say is, GRRRRREEEEEEAAAAATTTTT!!! Isn't the low interest rates what got us into this mess in the first place???????????!!!!!!

We got some volume on this, probably not enough to be capitulatory, the turn around was nice, we shall see what we see. I apologize, I really blew it this morning, I was so busy, it completely escaped me that we were opening right under those levels I had talked about, obviously those things are now major resistance, which, in a way, is good, if we can get through them.


On a personal note, I did half good, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!! I did some adds, two on the UYG, one in TS and one in Fidelity, 14.23 in TS and 13.94 in Fidelity, we closed at 15.01, so that was the good half, hahahahahahahaha, sigh, then there was da udder one, I added a unit in the SSO at 41.62 in IB, let's see, at it's worst today, I was down over 10%, it closed at 40.05, sooooooooo, all in all, it wasn't horrible.

Now, what the REALLY good part is, is that today sets up my next buy points, that would be the lows of today. Of course, I would really like to see a little rally off today, to kind of confirm a temporary low was made, that would be really cool (I'm not expecting, or hoping, for anything), that would confirm the low as my next buy points. With a market just going down all the time, you never really get any pivot area's to look at, as an action point, I now have one.

If I was a stock picker, it would seem to me, that "investors" would be looking at a lot, just off hand I would mention INTC and AMAT, possibly GE, etc etc, stuff like that, just my personal opinion.

Anyway, good luck, lator gators.



1:50pm: I've had the platforms shut down for a few hours, I'm not looking, and taking a few naps, etc etc. Anyway, with the DOW down 760, with an hour and ten to go, I think the only question, is not if we break last monday's record, but if we hit the magic 1,000 down, hahahahahaha (those are crocodile tears of course, as I added waaaaaaay to early, naturally).

I know I rag on the yakking talking heads endlessly, but I have to admit, watching some of them break down and lose their composure is not pretty, sigh.

I'm shutting down again to fire up for the last hour, the post market update will be a little late, hahahahahahaha, sigh, if I'm still around.

7:15am: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA, OH GOD, BE STILL MY BEATING HEART!!!! MarketWatch didn't think the last headline was good enough, so they changed it,
Shares plunge around the worldCareening off a cliff !!!! Is that a kick, or what!!!! Good Yob guys!

Anyway, I have to go off line, I'll be carrying three platforms this morning, so my puter will be operating (I hope it operates) on the edge. Currently, we have been wallowing since the FED's release, the premarket lows have held, the SPY low is 107.16, the UYG, if anyone is interested, is 14.80, oops, they just took it out. I'm not watching the Q's, like I've said, I have no interest in them, this is earnings warning week, it will be interesting to see if we start getting some big ones. If you are interested, the Q's low was 35.21, which is UNDER the July 06' low's I've mentioned in the past. BZ said he wasn't going to be interested in this market, until the Q's got to around his target of, I believe he said 36, hey, are you all in BZ??!!!
I'm working on a different time frame these days, so my parameter's have changed (think, years), but if I were a betting man, I would want to see them take out the premarket lows after the open, and then bounce hard. If we go straight up out of the open, that would be BAD, and I would be looking to short around the 10am ET turn around period.
Wad ever, good luck out there, I hope you've been keeping your powder dry.


Shares plunge around the worldHeavy selling to start !!! This is what I mean about the fear monger's, I guess the media dosn't realize that's what they are, hahahahaha!! A lot of the selling in Asia, of course, is due to that holiday they had last week, so all they are doing, is trying to catch up to last week's drop.
Hahahahaha, this cracks me up, Libor rates rise, indicating short-term lending remains frozen , I read an article this morning where one "trader" (now, he didn't have a position he was trying to help out, did he???) said that the "bail out" was not working, among other things, anyway, the FED's themselves have said it would take several weeks to get all the details straightened out, as to how they plan on doing this, hahahahaha, we are weeks away from even starting to try and bail out the bum's on da street.

GE, in my opinion, is possibly a super value trap. In one of my greater NON moves, I didn't get into JPM when it hit 15 at the bottom of the last great (continuing????) bear market. At the time when it hit that level, it's dividend yield was just north of 11%, I don't remember what the P/E was. Anyway, GE would have to get to about 11 bucks to start spitting out a yield like that. Currently, in the premarket, it's down about 4%, around the $20 level, which, by the way, is under it's previous bear market lows in 02'.

6:30am: I just got another emergency notice from TradeStation, informing me that the ban on short selling has been extended to October 17th, like I said before, it's just a stinking miracle that the ban goes through options expiration day, ain't it??!!!!

Like I said before, the idiots have obviously not thought this out very well, forget the fact that we are reducing liquidity, and will not be able to get a short covering rally going, what this does is take a lot of people out of play, that buy stocks by buying call options, and then use shorting to short the stock on a delta hedge.


6:20am: Futures jumped all over the place, as the FED's are starting to make their move:
8:18 a.m.
Fed will begin to pay interest on bank reserves
8:17 a.m.
Treasury says some cash management bills may be longer dated
8:16 a.m.
Treasury said it will make adjustments to auction calendar
8:16 a.m.
Treasury say may increase size of note, bond auctions
8:15 a.m.
Fed says to increase loans auctions to banks to $900 bln
8:15 a.m.
Fed, Treasury mulling other ways to shore up money marke
8:15 a.m.
Treasury says mulling reintroducing 3-yr note
8:08 a.m.
Overnight borrowing rates rise

The futures covered the entire spectrum of the over night market, the initial move was to take the shorts out, as they popped over the high's of the congestion area, and after sucking in some fast momentum players, they turned it around, and alllllllllll most, took the low's out, but not quite, right now they are back where they started. When I talk about over night, I'm talking from midnight ET.
The UYG got within a nickel of the July 15th lows, I don't have a lot of confidence it's going to hold here. One major problem of course, at least with getting a rally going, is how are we going to get the shorts covering and taking profits, when their are none???? Well, other than trader's that were already short before the ban was put on. The UYG has some thing like 260 some banks in it, and of course, they are all on the short ban list, in my opinion, is really screw's the market's up, but hey, what else would you expect out of this stinking government.

5:40am: I don't have a complete handle on the premarket open, but it appears right now that the SPY is going to open up right on the "area" I talked about over the weekend, right now it's projecting an open at $107.29, which is just under the area. Now, the LOW in 2004 was 106.24, that's another point down, so they may go after that.
Any I would think about doing here would just be a faith based move, or more along the lines of an "investor" mentality, IE, partialing in for the long term. Don't let the media or the panic monger's take over your emotions, while the world is in panic mode, true "investors" like Buffett have been sitting back and licking their chop's, waiting for a moment like this. My own personal plan is that I have no intention of getting into my accounts with more than 15-20% of my asset's, TOTAL, and that would be at the time I finally fill my unit allocations. Since I have no idea how low we are going to go, IE, we could easily go another 30-50% further from here, meaning in my mind, we will be taking out the 02' lows some where down the road. What I do plan on doing, is increasing the percentage drop before adding a "unit" to my life time holdings, IE, like in the case of the SSO, it's currently going to be opening up around $42, so I still have six unit's left to add to, so in this case I'm going to zero line it out, IE, plan on it possibly going to zero (which, it might, hahahahaha), so if I add a unit here, I would NOT add another unit until it gets to about 35. Now, my plan also has in it, day trading the shit out of the thing, IE, counter trend trading during the day, in this case puts. Also included, is a call selling plan, for with the volatility pump the calls are going for over 10% a month, just like the UYG currently is doing. So, this mean's, in THEORY, that I could pay for the position in 10 months, the best senario would be if we continue to go down over the next year, but in smaller increments, while still maintaining the volatility pump.
I have some thoughts about the coming bear market rallies that we will undoubtly get, and how I plan on handling those, but I'm a little busy right now.

5:00am: Awooga Awooga , DIVE DIVE!! Futures are down across the boards, ES down over 30 points, DOW over 230 points, as the rest of the world is starting to realize they have a crisis as well, Crisis in EuropeEU officials add fuelto the fire .

FINANCIALS Bank of America's$8.4 billion plan , this is one of the main reason's our problems are going to be going on for, well, maybe decades, as this is one of the biggest crock's of shit I've ever seen. Number one, BAC said that the deal is within the parameters of what they figured, when they bought Countrywide, soooooo, let me get this straight, they knew two years ago that the current system of lending was going to result in massive fraud and foreclosures????? And if our banks, and banking system, is on the verge of collapse and needs us to put up $700 bbbbbillion to "save" us, how come, with the stroke of a pen, BAC takes care of 400,000 of the idiots that took the bad loans?????? And if you read the settlement, it is actually going to be US that pays the bill, through the Federal Housing Administration's Hope for Homeowners program, so what's the fricking 700 billion for???? I mean, why should ANYBODY pay their fricking mortgage??? I mean, with the stroke of a pen, BAC is reducing their payments to not more than 34% of their income, so they are going to keep these stinking RENTER's in these houses, for probably decades, I mean, if I was sitting next door to one of these idiots, making my payments, and being a good citizen, instead of a fricking CROOK and DEAD BEAT, I'd not only burn their house down, but go down and burn the local Bank of America building down as well!!!! God this country sucks!!!! We deserve every thing that comes to us.

5 Comments:

aszager said...

Cuccia;
McHugh has been amazingly accurate in this correction. I am impressed
aszager

Cucca said...

Yup, he nailed it. I hope you followed his advice, UNLIKE some people I know, hahahahahahahaha!! (that would be me).

sysin3 said...

I'm with Art on this one. Not enough puke. Definitely homely though.

Hey, I can run a company into the ground for a helluva lot less than $400 million paycheck. Can I be the next Fuld ?

Or is that "Fudd" ?

Cucca said...

It's just sickening isn't it, I heard he actually tried to defend his salary as well, wad ever.

sysin3 said...

well it was the "compensation committee" what gave him all that money. it wasn't his fault.

you know, his golfing and yachting buddies ... that committee.

one of the astronauts (i think) said something like:

an elephant is a camel, designed by a committee, and built under a government cost-plus contract ;-)

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