Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Finally EOD 04/16/08

6:30pm: You know, every STINKING trading book, or wad ever, I have ever read or listened to, say's that you BUY only when volume goes up, as the stock goes up!!!!!! Hahahahahahaha, I ain't going to show you all the charts, but I can go back to when Kingdom Come began, and show you that markets BOTTOM on huge volume!!! I only bring this up, because BZ http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/ was talking about the "record" volume, I've been so involved with my life ending position in the UYG I didn't even notice, but the Q's had like 600 miiiilllliooon fricking shares yesterday, I mean, that incredible, I've never heard of any thing close to that.
NOW, numero Uno, I honestly don't give a rat's fricking ass, all I want in my life, is for the UYG to close over 20 this Friday, or even, CLOSE, to it. Numbero Duceso, I could give a big flying what ever less, because, this thing is just getting started. UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, ALL RALLIES, ARE A CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR FRICKING ASS, AND GET OUT OF DODGE!!! I don't, under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, think this is that life changing event that happens, like in 1982, that leads into a great bull market, that makes you rich!! Remember, the sharpest rallies, have occurred in BEAR FRICKING MARKETS, as, aaaahhhh, what's left of da Boyz (hahahahahaha, I'm already starting to get a KICK out of saying that) try and SUCK you into buying these pieces of shit, hoping you hold on, until they go down ENOUGH, that they can finally tell you, in their infinite wisdom, that it's safe to sell now, you dumb bastard!!!!!




5:37pm: MY GOD, AIG is getting some kind of loan from da GOVERNMENT (IE, you and me, well, maybe YOU, I ain't loaning them the stinking money), the DOW WOW futures went from 100 DOWN, to 90 UP, hahahahahahahaha, oops, excuse me a minute, I think I'm going to throw up (like the Kid on that cute trading commercial), bbbaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrfffffff!!!!!
Ok, I just saw what it is, it's a "Bridge" loan, IE, we pay them 85 Bbbbbbbiiiilllllioooon dollars, to hold them over, while they cross the "Bridge", from insolvency, to bankruptcy, hahahahahaha!!! It's kind of funny, because that's what I'm trying to get, a "Bridge" loan, so I can buy a house over by my kids, and then pay it back when mine sells here, IE, the "Bridge".
Nothing, I mean, NOTHING, in all this bull shit, is going to change the fact, that there's a good chance, that earnings for the third quarter, which the confessional gets into full gear about the middle of next month, are going to SUCK!!!

Ooooohhhh, from what I'm hearing, the share holder's of AIG are going to suck up the big one on the deal, hahahahahahahahahaha, I honestly don't know why, but that makes me feel better.

3:00pm: You know, I'm actually getting a little tired of this bull shit, word is coming out, that a "conservatorship" is being "considered" as an "option" for AIG, the stock is down over 50% in the after hours.


2:10pm: Welp, we were up a little, then the FED came out with their decision, and kept rates the same. Just before the decision came out, the futures were pricing in a 92% chance of a quarter point cut, and a 40+% chance of a half point cut, sooooo, they sold the shit out of the markets, DOW down about 100 points for awhile. THEN, about 20 minutes later, the FED came out and said they were reconsidering funding for AIG, hahahahahahahahahahahah, BINGO!! Every thing rallied, DOW ended up 141 points, naturally, the Q's, who have nothing to do with any of this, and were down on the shitty outlook from DELL, rallied with them, wooooo hooooo (roaches!).
The SPY came within 3 cents, 3 lousy pennies, of that 50% retracement number I mentioned this morning, and basically rallied all day, with HUGE volume, about 540 million shares, of course that paled in comparison to AIG, which had over a billion shares, I'm not sure, but I think they were down about 75%, and rallied up for the day, some thing like that.
Anyway, IT'S ALL OVER, IT'S SAFE TO GO BALLS TO DA WALL, YEEEEEE HAAAAAWWW!
So wad did I do today, I did what the tough do, when the going gets tough, the tough go paint, HAH!! Actually, I didn't want to watch my UYG anyway, so it provided a good excuse.
Good luck out there.

6:30am: Hahahahahahahahahaha, oh god, be still my beating heart!!!! Now, I know, for sure, that the PPT does not exist, and that the government is not in cahoot's with the "Street", so therefore, I present for your consideration the following sequence of events:

[GS] Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings $845 million vs $2.85 billion8:26 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
02.
[GS] Goldman Sachs Q3 revenue down 36% to $6.04 billion8:21 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
03.
N.Y. Fed: Ready to arrange further operations if needed8:20 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
04.
[SS] Goldman Sachs Q3 EPS $1.81 vs $6.138:19 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
05.
N.Y. Fed to arrange 'large overnight repo'8:19 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
06.
Fed to 'arrange large overnight repo'8:18 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008
07.
Federal Reserve planning liquidity action this morning8:17 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008

I mean, it's just a stinking miracle that the FED jumps in, seconds before Goldman reports, right, RIIIIIGGGGHHHTTTTT!!!!!!!

This don't mean diddly squat of course, but we have an "area" here on the SPY, that "could" provide some support, at least momentarily. 117.12 is the 50% retracement from the bottom in 02', to the top last October, PLUS, if you look waaaaayyy over to the left, we had a weekly Pivot in late 05'. It's just a thought, the SPY is currently trading at 118.86 in the premarket, if we should get to that level, well, we shall see.
The ignorance is Washington is just unbelievable:
"McCain calls for more regulation, curbing short sellers8:12 AM ET, Sep 16, 2008 - By Michael KitchenNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Republican presidential nominee John McCain said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday that the U.S. needs to strengthen its oversight of markets while remaining aware of the "risk of overregulation." The Republican senator said regulators also need to "do a better job in reining in short sellers." While McCain had said Monday that U.S. economic fundamentals were sound, he voiced a darker note Tuesday, saying that turmoil in the financial markets "isn't just going to cost jobs on Wall Street, this is going to cost jobs all over America." He said that the government could consider setting up a panel similar to the 9/11 Commission in order to study the causes of the current financial crisis."

"Reining in short sellers", hahahahahahahahaha, hey pal, let me clue you in on some thing, you have a just a few problem's other than them, and the idea of setting up another panel to study why this happened, is just, well, aaaaahhhhh, so completely clueless, as to make me look like I have a clue! Like I've said, the only way to "solve" the problems that caused this, is for a few million of us to march on Washington, and hang, draw and quarter everyone of the MF'er's there!

Humpt, this is actually a fairly active earnings week, besides Goldman this morning, we get DRI, ADBE, BBY, & KR, tomorrow we get MS & GIS, and thursday we get ORCL, CCL, CTAS, CAG, FDX, and the all important LEH earnings.......................... hahahahahaha!

It just amazes me about how everyone loves to pile on poor old Joe Six Pack, King: BOE sees 'muted growth' key to beating inflation , it's not just the BOE, Uncle Ben has repeatedly said the way to beat inflation is to crush Joe some more, those nasty fricking consumers!!! HOW DARE THEY THINK WE WOULD CREATE POLICY THAT MIGHT "HELP" THEM!!!
Anyway, this is exactly what started happening in 2000-02, Dell sees 'further softening' in global demand this quarter , the Street Salesmen, eeeeeeerrrrrrrr, analyst, waaaaaaaaaayyy over estimate future earnings, such as the 69% increase they have been predicting for the fourth quarter this year, and of course the "market" start's to reprice for the "revised" estimates. The bottom dosn't come until all the mega cap companies finally realize, that no matter what they say, they get crushed right along with the rest of the market, so they say screw it, and they start dumping out every bad peice of news they can on the market, IE, they start telling the "truth", we get flushed out, and then we get to start the whole cycle over again, from "lowered" expectations, that can be beat easily in the next year.

Aaaahhh, those maaaaaavelous Brit's, my man Clive, Corcoran that is, pretty much sums up my UYG position, "The financials seem destined to revisit the July lows in coming sessions. A lot of the "smart money" had been speculating that the bottom was in place for the sector so a break below the low seen on July 15th in the XLF fund could see a less than orderly liquidation.", tradewithform.com . "Less than Orderly", hahahahaha, yep, if we get through the July low's, I believe that caution will be thrown to the wind. One thing I might disagree with, is that he's calling a bottom in the XHB, the home builders, now, that "could" be, the only problem I have with it, is that the major builder's didn't bottom in 1990-91 until they were all penny stocks, now, this time "could" be different, but the housing situation this "time" is many hundred's of percentile's worse than it was then, IMHO!!




One of the "really" depressing items, is that we have quite a ways to go before we can even think about being close to an over sold basis (of course, maybe we hit it today, hahaha), and even if we get "there", we can still get another leg down in the markets, as evidenced at the March lows. The big Kahuna, the NYSE, looks almost exactly the same. http://www.indexindicators.com/



5:00am: Futures are down across the boards, around .70%, oops, now 1.11%DOW about 63 points, as, believe it or not, the rating agencies have a similiar sense of humor as the comedy store used to have, WaMu downgraded by S&P, too , Shares in London drop again after agencies cut AIG ratings , as it appears the rating agencies like to wait until the body is sitting in the coffin, before they will actually down grade them, idiots!
The big debate this morning seems to be whether the FOMC will cut rates a full 50 basis points when they make their announcement this afternoon, or only 25, RATS!! I was just getting used to $3.80 gas here! I'd buy some USO, but like I've said before, I don't "invest" in thing's in which the whole purpose of the product is to price it's customer base out of existence.
The weakness this morning is creating a solid break of the July lows, depending on how far we go after the open, those lows will probably become solid resistance on the way back up.

5 Comments:

sysin3 said...

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- One of the first and largest money market funds has put a seven-day freeze on redemptions after the net asset value of its shares fell below $1. Primary Fund (RFIXX), a $62 billion fund managed by money market fund inventor The Reserve, said Tuesday afternoon that its $785 million holding of Lehman Brothers Holdings debt has been valued at zero. As of 4 p.m., the value of the fund's share is 97 cents."

oops, zero, nada, zilch

my 401k is 98% in Vanguard Treasury MM fund and i hope like hell they ain't lying about that "treasury" part.

Cucca said...

Good move. I'm glad I've moved my "stuff" around to four different outfits, woooo eeeee, who knows where this is going to land.

sysin3 said...

shee-it

we be lucky to get out of this with our gonads intact.

moo-cows is real property ... not sure about anything else.

bzbtrader said...

Cucca,
What's this UYGQIY . . Klingon?
Love the Cluelessness picture. You should save it on the side panel of the blog permanently.
FYI, the brain draining problems that happen when you try to copy & paste TS code into blogger can be avoided if you copy and paste the TS code into Word first, then save in Word and copy and paste into blogger. Don't know why but that eliminates blogger's confusion with < and > and it's tendency to otherwise delete whole lines of code from the post. In a pain in the butt, but it seems to work.

Cucca said...

Hahahaha, that's interesting you brought that up, because that's eactly what I did with last one. I still posted it at the end, juuuuussst in case.

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