Saturday, September 23, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 9/22/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
PPS BUY SIGNAL: Terrible performance this week, five of the eight were losers, for a 37% win rate.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: This was better, with four of the six as winners, that is, lower on the week, for a 66.66666% win rate.
MACD Histogram buy signal: NONE
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% win rate with EPU for a whooping .05%.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:75% win rate with 3 of the 4 being winners, although the loser was big, EWT down 2.27%, but that's why you have stop losses.

Negative ROC(13) Cross: GDX was down 2.74% on the week for a 100% win rate. 
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA:Horrible T-Line again this week, five of six were losers.
Close below T-Line: Much better, 4 of 6 were winners for 75%.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 50%, although neither one moved much.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE
The multiple buy signals had were 66% losers, with IDX and EIDO down and FXI up, not much movement.
The multiple sell signals were better, with 60% down on the week.


Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: NONE

PPS sell signal for Monday: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI, XME

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: NONE

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EEM, EWH, EWM, FXI, TAN, UNG

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EIDO, EWA, EWW, IDX, XLK

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EGPT, EIDO, EPU, EWL, EWP, EWS, EWW, EWZ, FXE, JNK, XPY, TAN, XRT

Close below T-Line: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI

HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EWH, EWL, EWZ, IDX, UNG, VOO

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, EWW

Multiple SELL signals: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI

NOTES:  ... a lot more multiple SELL signals than BUY signals, which means the stupid markets will probably go HIGHER, sigh ........


I ran the John Carter "TTM SQUEEZE" scan, I don't include this scan in the strategies scans because it's not a "Directional" scan, the squeeze scan only says that a BIG MOVE is possible coming out of a period of consolidation.
I bring this up because only two showed up on the daily scan, UUP and EWW, two that I'm not interested in, and only ONE showed up on the 60 minute scan, XLK.
Now, you generally wait for a directional signal on the squeeze indicator, and in the green circle in the center chart down at the bottom we see that it's on YELLOW bars and they are UNDER the ZERO signal line, IE, it's on a SELL signal but the momentum is moving to the UPSIDE, the buy signal would come when the first bar gets above the ZERO line and turns green.
The interesting part is the green arrows, the PPS on the right chart has crossed to a buy signal on the upside, in the center chart the ROC has triggered above the ZERO line and the STOCH has crossed in a buy signal, and on the left chart the HULL MA has just turned GREEN, and the MACD at the bottom is just now crossing to the upside.
The one big negative is the red circle in the left chart, that's Dave Landry's "BOW TIE", where the three MA's have crossed to the down side in a sell signal, and show NO signs of starting to move to the upside. The buy signal on a Bow Tie is EXACTLY the opposite of the sell signal we got in the two candles in the red circle, we came down out of Tuesday, then bounced with two green bars right to the underside of the Bow Tie, then opened Thursday with that huge red bar to the down side. That's called a retest, naturally, and that is what we would want to see to the upside, first a Bow Tie, and then come back down and "test" the BT and then move higher.
For you NasDOG bulls, IE, Da QQQ's, they are "fairly" close to the XLK, BUTT, there is no Squeeze, ROC, MACD or HULL signals, so, Udder Dan Dat, they are EXACTLY the same .....................
I'm not saying those items aren't going to go positive right away, only that they haven't happened, yet ...............


You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE


Friday, September 22, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 9/22/2017



(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NAAD's actually look the best they've looked in a while, as they are leading the markets higher, making new highs before the $COMPQ. 


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

The signals in my 12 major markets this week  also look the best they have in a long time, with only one on a sell, 20sma below 50, $USD, and who cares about the dollar as the FED thinks it's wonderful when it sells off. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible, as I said last week and the week before,  as we remain with 10 of the 12 on sell signals, $BPINFO is only four cents away from a new buy signal.


We had a big move in the sectors this week, dropping from six sectors on sell down to only three, XLY, XLF and XLP. XLE, XLI, XHB and XRT moved into buy signals this week. 


Not a particularly good week for my eighty markets as 43 finished higher on the week vs 66 last week. None of our "majors" made the front page BUT one major "event" is just a few cents away, that being my modified "DOW Theory" buy signal, since the $INDU is more of a "financial" index these days than an "Industrial" index, I use the IYT and XLI for the signal, and the IYT is just 66 cents away from joining the XLI at new highs for a new buy signal. The banks had a good week, KRE and XLF, as yields moved up this week, with higher yields the dollar moved up which meant, of course, oil and PM's went down ........... oh, wait, oil went UP 1.54% on the week, I guess the oil cartel didn't get the news.
Our best "major" made the first page, with the little guys being the winners, as they HATE higher bond yields  ......... oh, wait, I guess they LOVE higher yields, as IWM was up 1.33% for the week, I guess I could rag on the IYT as well as I guess the air lines and truckers LOVE higher oil prices, wad ever, the DIA were next at .34%, then SPY at .10%, or 25 cents higher for the week.


We had 13 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 18last week, 7 of the 18 finished lower on the week for a 61% win rate, kind of middling. 

We had four stocks finish on 20 day lows this week, EIP, TUR, XLP and XLU, the last two were obviously down because of the increase in bond yields this week, with the yield chasers loving those MASSIVE ten year yields of 2.26%. The one 20 day low from last week was down this week as well, VXX, for a 100% win rate, wooo hooo!


The one notable on the first page of the loser's list for the week is in the 13 spot, the NasDOGS, QQQ, were down 1.19% on the week, which makes it a bifurcated major week,  GDX finished way out of the expected range again this week, so I'm glad I canned the put/call sells, it bounced a little Friday but it's clearly on sell for right now.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, seems like a lot of oil stocks for such a small bounce in crude this week, hope springs eternal, the big winners was that bunch of crooks EFX, Ya know, XLI has 60 wonderful stocks in it and this piece of shit, I mean, WTF?? No other financials but they have this thing in the index????


Here's the losers, CPB was down 7.39%, another TEN POINTS and I might, MIGHT, get interested in it again. I assume that one in the 14th was because a lot of people thought N. Korea had a bad week or some thing .............


Saturday, September 16, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 9/16/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on highest volume, there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
The two buy signals for the PPS were split, with a .11% gain for EIDO and a 1.1% loss for XLU, which had a 41 cent dividend paid on Friday, I believe.
With the up week in the markets the sell signals in the PPS were a disaster, with 3 winners and 8 losers for a 72% losing rate, the three losers averaged 1.23% while the losers averaged a huge 2.43%, of course, that's why we have stop losses in place.
The MACD buy signal in EWN had a gain of .97%, while the sell signals had two winners, EZA and TUR for a 1.3% gain, while the three losers averaged 2.12%.
The two ROC shorts were, of course, losers, with UNG UP 4.5% and XLP .24%.
The T-Line buy signals had two winners averaging .26%, while the loser, VXX, lost 11.79%, sigh.The short signal was a big loser as well, with a 75% losing rate, the four winners averaged 1.16% and the eight losers 3.49%, that included a 12.43% gain in XIV.
Do I have to keep going?
Throwing out VXX and XIV the Hull MA had two winners on the short side, EZA and TUR, and one slightly huge loser in UNG.
The multiple buy signals had one winner and one loser, the EIDO winner was just slightly out gained by the VXX loser.
The multiple sell signals were horrendous, with a 33% win rate, the winners averaging 1.23% and the losers 4.27%, which includes the XIV loss.

My "Of Note" last week was certainly prophetic as I didn't like the sell set ups and noted that SOH, sitting on hands, was the best strategy. I'd love to think that we whip sawed back into an all clear on the up side last week, but in this crazy market it's hard to count on any thing.

Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EIRL, EPHE, EWM, FXI, GCC, IDX, IYR, VWO

PPS sell signal for Monday: EPU, EWA, IYT, XLP, XLV, XLY

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: NONE

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EPU

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EWP, EWT, FXI, XLF

Negative ROC(13) Cross: GDX

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EIDO, IDX, EWH, EWT, FXE, FXI

Close below T-Line: EWA, IYT, UUP, XLP, XLU, XLY

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIDO, JNK

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, FXI, IDX

Multiple SELL signals: EPU, EWA, IYT, XLP, XLY

NOTES: The Heisman winning offensive coordinator for BYU may not be hanging on to his job for much longer .............
Oops, excuse me, I was thinking to myself, hhuuuummmmmm, based on the "STRATEGY" that has been working, you take what ever you have learned about markets in your life, throw that information OUT, and just SOH and let some one else lose money .........
OR, you could take all those stinking short signals above and buy the SHIT out of them! Accept in Japanese stocks of course, as since the Bank of Japan owns like 70% of all the companies in Japan they do not allow short selling, so there's really no one left to buy, other than the BOJ buying the last 30% they don't own ...

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NWL


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