Friday, July 14, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/14/2017



(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Both the $NAAD with the $COMPQ at the top and the the $NYAD and $NYA at the bottom look terrific, couldn't be better best thing I've ever seen, the markets will NEVER go down, at least not in our life time.
We closed at all time highs going into the weekend, and here's the obvious reason why:

The economic reports absolutely sucked today, it keeps the FED on the side lines, WOOOO HOOOOOO ...............


Same three on sell signals in my 12 major markets as last week, 20sma below 50, with GLD, $USD, and $CRB, with the dollar down you woulda THUNK that gold and commodities would be on buy, ESPECIALLY, to feed the OBVIOUS world wide economic boom that the stock markets claim we are in, but, atlas, it's not to be in the current environment. 


We are still on four sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the four are $BPDISC, $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM.


We closed just inside the "Expected Move" on the upside for the week, so we escaped another week with a win.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is 21.41 and the lower bound is $21.19, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out.


The sectors continue to be a little shocking as we moved from four to FIVE on sell, XLP joined XLK, XLY, XLE and XRT, and XLU continues to look like doggie poop. 


This was probably the strongest week of the year in my 80 markets I keep track of, only one of our majors made the first page, QQQ up 3.16% on the tails of the shitty retail report, GDX was number two at 2.78% ( a "major" in my mind, hahahaha), then it was SPY way back in 50th spot up 1.42%, DIA up 1.03%, with IWM bringing up the rear at .88%, I don't know what their problem was as the ten year yield was down 3% on the week to 2.319%. 


We had 35 markets lose on 20 day highs vs only one the last couple of weeks, and, YES, IYT closed on another 20 day high this week.  
We had 35 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs only ONE the last couple of weeks, and, YES, that stock, IYT, closed on ANOTHER 20 day high this week. I could be GUESSING, but with the transports flying I get the feeling the vapid TRUMP trade seems to be back in play. 
Of the eighteen that closed on 20 day LOWS last week every single one of them was higher this week, so that continues to be just about the worst bet you can possibly make every week, that is, expected ANY THING to continue to the down side. 
Only two closed on lows this week, $USD and VXX. 


Only six stocks were lower this week, a VERY low number, I guess the IWM was down because XLF and KRE were down as as interest rates were lower and Wall Street couldn't screw the public as much.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment. Earnings start to get under way next week so that's another reason to lay low.


Only 128 stocks were lower this week, these are the worst of the worst... ter's ...


Friday, July 07, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/7/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)
The big index, $NYA, has been chopping up and down for five weeks now, just like all of them, but the $NYAD's are virtually the same as they were five weeks ago, and have barely dropped with the last two day dump. 


The $COMPQ has dropped about 2.7% over the last five weeks, much worse than the $NYA, and yet the $NAAD's are higher than they were five weeks ago. 
So, even with the drop, "breath" is holding up and, SHOULD, lead to a move higher. 
Naturally, nothing is for certain. 


I just wanted to point out Wednesday on my "Market Monitor" of over 2800 stocks, it was an UP day but a HORRIBLE breath day, as the third line up from the bottom had one hell of a lot of RED on it, leading to the big dump on Thursday. It doesn't always work, but this one was a big divergence. 


We moved to three sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, with GLD joining the $USD, and $CRB from last week. The $COMPQ and VWO are both on the verge of new sell signals. 


We moved back down to four sells from five last week on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes",  the $BPENER joined the buy party, unbelievable as that might seem. With the risky energy sector catching a bid the good old staples, $BPSTAP is right on the verge of a sell signal as they move out of those nasty old stoogie things.  I'm not going to mention $BPGDM, oh, rats, I guess I did, it's crashing, with only three of the 23 gold stocks higher this week, BVN, GFI and RGLD. The good payroll report really put the guints to them, as the dollar and interest rates went higher.


This was the first week in quite a while that we closed outside the "expected" move on GDX, we opened right on the bottom level at the open Friday morning, but it wasn't enough to turn the sold put side out of the money.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is 21.88 and the lower bound is $20.54, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out. 

The sectors are a little shocking this week, we moved from two to four on sell, XLK and XLY joined the ever weak XLE and XRT. XLU is not looking good and neither is XME. 


None of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, DBA, which NEVER shows up, was the winner this week, up 3.77%, with the consumers soon to be the BIG LOSERS! IYT continues it's dominance, up 2.29%, and is waiting on the INDU to come up and confirm a DOW theory buy signal. XLF loves higher interest rates as they can screw that same consumer all the more, DIA was our major winner, up .68%, then SPY at .31%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up .11%, with the little guys being the big losers this week, IWM down .44%.

IYT was the only market to close on a 20 day high last week, and is the only one again this week.


Despite another"feeling" good this week we had 18 makrets close on 20 day lows vs four last week, probably the largest difference in the sells vs buys I've seen in my 80 markets. AND, FINALLY, 3 of the four from last weeks were down this week, woooo hooooo, a 75% win rate. 


  This is the first time this has ever happened, but exactly HALF of the 80 markets were lower this week, naturally SLV, GDX and GLD are in the top four with OIH, TUR was down I think because their leader backed Trump at the G-20 meeting, hahahahahahaha ....... just kidding there. TLT was down 2.14% as interest rates were higher, ten year yields were up .91 or 3.95% on the week. That also didn't help IYR and XLU, the dollar was higher on the week but not enough to explain the oil weakness.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment. Earnings start to get under way next week so that's another reason to lay low.


278 stocks in the SP were higher this week, these are the worst of the worst, I have no idea what a QRVO is or what they do, but they obviously DIDN'T do it this week. Hhhmmmm, both STX and WDC are on the list, are disk drives starting to slow up?? Two of the FANG's are on the first page, GOOG and NFLX, is the bloom off the rose??


Friday, June 30, 2017

WEEKLY, MONTHLY AND YTD WRAP UP FOR 6/30/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Regardless of the POS market we had this week, the QQQ were down, down, UP, down, down to finish the week DOWN 2.55%, regardless of that, that chart above is really very good, the best it's been for the NasDOGS in a long time, as the $NAAD's actually LED the markets to the UP side for a change, they made a new high in the green circle while the NasDOGS themselves pulled back, they made the high on the big up day on Wednesday and then fell back with the market the last two days.  
Now that I've said how fantastic it is we probably start into a two year BEAR market next week, hahahahahahahahaha .............


I had a lot of red on my Market Monitor today, that simply means that despite the HIGHER close on most of the indexes we had FEWER stocks going higher. I also want to point out that red box in the center, that's the number of stocks in the SP 500 that have a 14 RSI that are either over 80 or under 20, IE over bought or over sold, so with ZERO in both columns, it means, IMHO, you don't have shit to choose from to sell bear calls or bull puts against, just a bunch of crap if you ask me. 


We still have only two markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week,  20sma below 50, the $CRB and $USD, GLD does not look well as the 20 sma is curling to the down side.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes now has FIVE of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the part is that the $BPCOMPQ and $BPSPX, FINALLY, moved back into BUY territory,  the big index, $BPNYA, is still on sell signal.
The $BPGDM was TRYING to claw into a buy last week but failed miserably, sigh ...........

The sectors still look all right, not great, only two are on sell, XLE and XRT,XLY is looking like it is about to join the sell party. XME just managed a new buy signal on Friday. 




These are the winners in my 80 markets I keep track of for the week (at the top), then the month in the middle, and the year to date winners at the bottom.
USO had a huge week, up 7.22%, has oil bottomed?? Banks, XLF and KRE, both over 3%, as 30 year yields moved up 4.64% for the week to 2.84%, WHICH, I won't be getting on a 30 year mortgage, I don't know who gets that rate.
As far as our majors go, I go know every one want to yell and sceam about how great they are, but only ONE major showed up on the first page of any of the list, the DIA in 18th spot at .87% on the monthly table, great work guys ................... we are letting the Furri-ners kick out asses!

Only ONE market closed  closed on new 20 day highs this week, IYT,  all three from last week got crushed this week, hahahaha, for a ZERO percent win week, IYR was down 1.79%, TLT2.08%, and XBI was down 3.9%, I thought Biotech was doing GREAT??

Four markets closed on 20 day lows this week, EFA, EWG, EWQ and EZU, of the seven that closed on lows last week only two, EWP and XLY, meaning the other five continued lower, for a 71% win rate, quite a turn around as it's usually been the ones going higher that have been winning. 




Only 36 losers this week vs 53 last week, NOW our majors start showing up with GDX in 3rd on the weekly chart at -3.9%, the QQQ right in back of them, down 2.55%, the NasDOGS also show up on the monthly chart, down 2.96%, GDX made all three charts, in 20th on the monthly and 15th on the YTD.




Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 with the same sequence as above, I have no interest in any of them so sift through them yourself if that's your thing.




The same thing with the losers, one interesting thing I notice is that in looking at all of them down at the bottom the YTD loser's have one HELL of a lot of RED in their six colums, ACCEPT, for the weekly column on the far left, there's only three red out of the WORST stocks in the SP 500 YTD. It would, APPEAR, that a bit of rotation is going on, as Do Boyz move out of Da winners and into the losers for the next quarter or maybe the next six months, who knows.

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