Sunday, May 20, 2018

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 5/18/2018 and the new picks for the coming week

These are ThinkOrSwim scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

NOTES:
I didn't think they could get any worse, but they did, after a dismal 30.31% last week the daily long signals came in even worse this week at 24.78%,  the sell signals came in at 74% last week and 53.6% this week, the weekly LONG signals came in at a horrible 18.37% after being 58.17% the prior week, the weekly sell signals came in at 64.29% , after an amazing 84.81% the prior week.


SOOOOO, we've been keeping a running total for the last six weeks to show how large numbers of signals in one direction DON'T work, or produce the opposite effect, well last week we had 57 long and 23 short on the daily signals and you can see the piss poor results on the long signals, the weekly an astounding 93 buys and 36 sells, and all the major indexes were lower for the week.
Well, this week we have a big change, as we have only 8 new LONG signals and 48 SELL signals on the daily, and 22 buys and 78 sells on the weeklies.
Not nearly as big a numbers as last week but defintely heavy on the SELL side, so based on the poor performance of the big buy signals we've been getting then we should finally have an UP week with all the sell signals ...... probably .....

Maybe with the large number of "NONE", as in NO signals, we have a flat week.

/CL had a BEARISH engulfing candle Friday, there were no BULLISH engulfing candles.

Please see the disclaimer at the bottom of the page regarding the terms "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", as they all apply to any trade in the SPY ...............


Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 20winners
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 0winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 37winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 0winners
MACD Histogram sell signal:  0winners
4 Hour MACD sell signal: NONE
RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: 0% winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: 72% winners
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  50winner
Negative ROC(13) Cross: 100% winners
8 SMA closed above 21 SMA: 33% winners
8 SMA closed below 21 SMA: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 33% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 23% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: NONE


The multiple buy signals were: 27% winners
The multiple sell signals were: 50% winners

Here's the new DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: FXF, XHB
PPS sell signal for Monday: ACWI, DIA, EWA, EWJ, EWL, EWM, QQQ, SMH, XLF

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: NONE
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: NONE
                                               
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EIDO, EWG, EWN, EZA, IDX
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: EWC, EWL

RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: BND, DBA, GLD, IYR, TLT
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: AMLP, EWC, EWU, IGE, IYT, OIH, USO, XLE, XLP, XME, XRT

Positive ROC (MOMENTUM)(13) Cross: NONE
Negative ROC(13) Cross: AAXJ

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: EWN
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EEM, EIDO, EPHE, EWG, EZA, EZU, IDX, JNK, VWO

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): NONE
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: AAXJ, ECH, EEM, EPHE, EWD, EWH, EWN, EWQ, QQQ, VWO, XLK

"TTM SQUEEZE" : SLV
1 hr "TTM SQUEEZE": USO

Multiple buy signals: NONE
Multiple SELL signals: AAXJ, EEM, EIDO, EPHE, EWC, EWG, EWL, EWN, EZA, IDX, QQQ


Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 30% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 0% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 38%winners
MACD Histogram sell signal: 0%winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: 13.2% winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: 100% winners
Positive ROC:  29% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  100% winners
8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: 0% winners
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 20% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 100% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 0% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE: 100% winners

The multiple buy signals were: 17% winners
Multiple SELL signals were: 50% winners

Here's the new WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EIS, SMH, XLI
PPS sell signal for Monday: EPU, EUFN, EWI, EWP, EWS, GDX, XLU

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: IWM, TAN
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EGPT, EWI, EWP, EWS, TLT, VXX

RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: EWM, FXF
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: ACWI, DIA, EWA, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWP, EWQ, EZU, FXI, GCC, GDX, IYR, QQQ, SPY, VGK, VTI, XLK

Positive ROC(13)(MOMENTUM) Cross: NONE
Negative ROC(13) Cross: DBA, DIA, EEM, EWA, EWG, EWJ, FXI, GDX, GLD, JNK, RSP, SLV, SPY, TLT, VGK, VWO, XLB, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XME (and MANY ...... MANY ...... MANY...... MORE!!!)

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: EWU, IGE, IWM, OIH, TAN, XLE
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: GLD (/GC), THD

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIS, FXI, XLF, XLV
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EGPT, EPI, EUFN, EWN, JNK, TLT

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): AAXJ, EIS, FXI, SMH, XLF
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: EGPT, EPI, EWN, SLV

"TTM SQUEEZE": EWI, EWM, IYR

Multiple buy signals: EIS, FXI, SMH, TAN, XLF
Multiple SELL signals: DIA, EGPT, EPI, EWA, EWG, EWJ, EWS, GDX, GLD, SLV, SPY, TLT, VGK, XLU

MORE NOTES:

The Precious metals are a little mixed again next week, BND, TLT, GLD and IYR all have LONG signals on the daily RSI 2, meaning lower interest rates,  but the weekly has multiple SELL signals on GDX, GLD and TLT, meaning higher interest rates, so I think I do what I've been doing, and stand aside and watch, the dollar still looks "toppy" to me, I'm mainly "watching" $23 on GDX as a higher trigger to $25, and under $22 and we probably see $21.

John Carter at Simple Options, Sheridan Options, Option Alpha, Project Options, and others, recommend SELLING options into VOLATILE markets, using like Iron Condors, short strangles and straddles, short Flys, etc etc, so every week I will list the ETF's that have an IV PERCENTILE RANK above 50, that means they have Implied volatility in the upper 50% as compared to their typical IV.

IV PERCENTILE RANK ABOVE 50, listed from highest rank to lowest rank:
AMLP, FXE, EWW, /NQ, FXF

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: None on the daily chart, none on the weekly charts.

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(WILDERS 13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: NONE


DISCLAIMER NOTE: "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said or posted here ............

Friday, May 18, 2018

WEEKLY WRAP UP IN MY 80 MARKETS FOR 5/18/2018


The SPY must feel bad about itself as it keeps looking for support from that DSTL, it just refuses to give it up as it's kind of walking down it. 


 The $NYAD's and the $NAAD's seem just as confused, along with me, as I honestly don't think I've ever seen them do this, I'm sorry I even put a picture of them up here, the $NYAD's have broken to all time highs while the $NYA just continues to lanquish, the $NAAD's are the same way, they are right on ATH's, but the $COMPQ actually went down this week. Really strange stuff ..........

(click on image for larger view, I hope)
(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

As mentioned last week as to what I thought "might" happen, the SPY and $COMPQ joined the buy party this week, to take the total to nine from seven last week, I had to look twice at the DIA, but it's still a buy a whooping 20 cents.  There's four on MACD sell signals, as the IYR is the confused one this week as it's on buy on the 20/50ma's but on a MACD sell, it fact a straight down sell. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes"  are still at six on buy from six last week, but there was some movement, as the $BPNYA dropped back down to sell and $BPINFO moved up to buy, $BPMATE is the one this week most likely to get a new buy signal next week. That is still  weak but the MACD improved this week with only two on sell, it had four last week.


Seven of the 12 sectors remain on buy signals.


Here's the big winners this week in my 80 markets, only 25were higher on the week vs 67 last week, we had lots of sectors on the first page of the winners, AMLP, XME, XRT, UUP, XBI, XLE, XLI, OIH,  our best major made the first page, this week it was IWM,  up 1.27%, if fact that was the ONLY major on this list, the rest are on that udder page of disrepute ............

We had 5 20 day highs this Friday vs 24 last week, IWM, UUP, XBI, XLB and XME, it surprises me to see the dollar on the list AND XLB and XME, but what else is new. Only six of the twenty four from last week were higher, so a totally lousy week for the Turtles.


We had 16 20 day lows this Friday, the Turtles had a great week with 100% winners, good Ole VXX, even with the lousy index performances, managed to end lower on the week. 


Here's the big losers this week, all 13 of them, none of our majors made the front page but they start showing up on the second page with the NasDOGS the big winner, QQQ down 1.18%, then DIA at -.62%, and the SPY was down .56% ...............

The PM's had a lousy week but I honestly can't see the buck continue higher much lower with out a little rest, it's pretty over bought on the weekly, ALTHOUGH, the MACD is on a relatively new buy signal and "MAY" continue longer. 


Here's the weekly winners in the SP 500, "M" was big winner this week on great earnings, as they finally found out this wonderful thing called ON LINE SALES, hahahahaha, way to go M ...........


And here's the losers, there was only 262 of them, I thought there would be more, CPB was the winner has I guess they still have NOT heard of the internet, VIAB HAS heard of the internet but haven't figured out cord cutters yet, AMAT sent some bad signals for the chip sector ........ I'm watching CPB for when it has a 10% dividend when it hits $14 .............


Saturday, May 12, 2018

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 5/11/2018 and the new picks for the coming week

These are ThinkOrSwim scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

NOTES:
Ok, I surrender, the "systems" have stopped being a surprise, after five weeks of being what I call "surprises", I guess they actually work, some what ...........
One that continues to NOT work are the daily LONG signals, after a dismal 31.21% last week they came in even worse this week at 30.31%, I guess the daily is just to volatile, but it doesn't seem to hurt the sell signals as they came in at 74%, the weekly LONG signals came in at 58.17%, which is about how you would expect decent "systems" to perform, but the weekly sell signals, after coming in at an amazing 84.69% last week, came in at 84.81% this week, my god man, this pace CAN'T continue ....... can it??


SOOOOO, we've been keeping a running total for the last five weeks to show how large numbers of signals in one direction DON'T work, or produce the opposite effect, well last week we had 49 long and 12 short on the daily signals and you can see the piss poor results on the long signals, the weekly weren't much better being just above 50%.
Well, this week we are back to an even more dangerous sign, as we have 57 new LONG signals and only 23 SELL signals on the daily, and an astounding 93 buys and 36 sells on the weeklies. With 150 total BUY signals those weak results we've had on the long side are going to be tested to the max .......

/CL, EWW and SLV had BEARISH engulfing candles Friday, there were no BULLISH engulfing candles.


So, last week we talked about Da NasDOGS, QQQ, this week the SPY is the interesting one, as it kind of sneaked above the DSTL (down sloping trend line) on Friday, I mentioned it in yesterdays post, this is just a blow up of it in dark color so you can't see it, hahahaha .... the daily "indicators" like the STOCH and RSI 5 and 2 are slightly over bought, but the weeklies are not, there's room to run to new ATH's. Speaking of ATH's, the QQQ and IWM are both knocking on the door, while the Big Boys, DIA, are not even close, so kind of an interesting situation there. 


So, what's REALLY interesting about the SPY is the one hour chart, it went up and hit the DSTL in the yellow circle and consolidated for four hours, then broke out higher over it, and, THEN, at the red arrow, it came back and tested it right to the gnat's ass, and took off higher again into the close, I mean, it just don't get any better than this ......

And as such, it "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "MIGHT, "BE", "EXPECTED", to go blast back to new ATH's .............

Please see the disclaimer at the bottom of the page regarding the terms "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", as they all apply to any trade in the SPY ...............


Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 88.8winners
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 87.5winners
MACD Histogram sell signal:  NONE
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 100% winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: 66% winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: 0% winners
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  0winner
Negative ROC(13) Cross: 0% winners
8 SMA closed above 21 SMA: 100% winners
8 SMA closed below 21 SMA: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 50% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 100% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: 20% winners


The multiple buy signals were: 75% winners
The multiple sell signals were: 50% winners

Here's the new DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: BND, EWS, FXE, TLT, XRT
PPS sell signal for Monday: AMLP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: BND, EIDO, EWK, EZU, IDX, UNG, XLP, XLV
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: EWS, THD
                                               
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: AMLP
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: NONE

RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: EGPT, EWI
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: DBC, EPI, EWA, EWG, EWZ, GCC, GDX, GLD, ILF, IYR, JNK, OIH, RSX, SLV, SMH, TAN, USO, VWO

Positive ROC (MOMENTUM)(13) Cross: AMLP, BND, EWS, XHB, XLI, XLV
Negative ROC(13) Cross: SLV

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: /ES, ACWI, EIRL, EWG, EWP, EWQ, EWU, FXI, SPY, TAN, VGK, XME
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: EWS, XLU

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIDO, EUFN, EWK, EWO, EWQ, IDX, UNG, XLP, XLV
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): ECH, EIDO, EPHE, EPU, EUFN, EWO, EWQ, EWZ, IDX, ILF, UNG, XLV, XRT
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: NONE

"TTM SQUEEZE" : NONE
1 hr "TTM SQUEEZE": NONE

Multiple buy signals: BND, EIDO, EWK, EWO, EWQ, EWS, IDX, UNG, XLP, XLV, XRT
Multiple SELL signals: AMLP, SLV


Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 66% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 75%winners
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100%winners
RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: NONE
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: 14.2% winners
Positive ROC:  86.6% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  55.5% winners
8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: 50% winners
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: 0% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 83% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 50% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 92.8% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE: 33% winners

The multiple buy signals were: 75% winners
Multiple SELL signals were: 60% winners

Here's the new WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: /ES, /NQ, /YM, ACWI, DIA, EWD, EWH, EWJ, FXI, IWM, IYT, QQQ, RSP, SPY, UNG, VTI, XLB, XLF, XLV, XLY
PPS sell signal for Monday: AMLP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: BND, EIDO, EWK, EZU, IDX, UNG, XLP, XLV
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: AMLP

RSI 2 80/50/20 LE: BND, ECH, EEM, EIDO, EWK, EWO, EWT, EZA, GLD, IDX, ILF, JNK, TAN, UNG, VWO
RSI 2 80/50/20 SE: DBA

Positive ROC(13)(MOMENTUM) Cross: /ES, /GC, /YM, ACWI, DIA, EEM, EWA, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWJ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IYT, JNK, RSP, SLV, SMH, SPY, TLT, UNG, VGK, VTI, VWO, XLB, XLF, XLI, XLV, XLY, XRT
Negative ROC(13) Cross: VXX

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: XLU
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: FXE, ILF

HULL MA(21) changed to green: /ES, /NQ, /YM, ACWI, DIA, EWA, EWD, QQQ, RSP, SPY, VTI, XLB, XLK, XLY, XME
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: DBA

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): /NQ, EWL, QQQ, XLK
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: EWW, ECH, EWM, EWO, JNK

"TTM SQUEEZE": /ES, AAXJ, EEM, ILF, SMH, THD

Multiple buy signals: /ES, /NQ, /YM, ACWI, BND, DIA, EEM, EWA, EWD, EWH, EWJ, GLD, IDX, IYT, JNK, QQQ, RSP, SPY, UNG, VTI, XLB, XLF, XLK, XLV, XLY
Multiple SELL signals: AMLP, DBA

MORE NOTES:
The "systems" absolutely hate AMLP this week, with multiple sell signals on the daily AND weekly charts, but I wouldn't short it with YOUR money, numero uno it's at 10 stinking dollars, and the low in March was nine some thing, so it don't move much, numero doce it yields over 8%, thus a sucker stock for the yield chasing bunch that don't give a crap about funnymentals, and numero tres Gunlach is Gun Ho on it.

The Precious metals are a little mixed next week, TNX has three SHORT signals and TLT has three LONG signals, BND also has multiple LONG signals, so those two are lined up saying interest rates will go LOWER, which means the dollar "should" go LOWER, FXE supports that with a buy on the daily PPS, which is good for GOLD and GDX, BUTT (that's the BIG BUTT), the "systems" hate SLV with multiple SELL signals on the daily while GLD has multiple BUY signals on the weekly, and FXE has a weekly SELL on the 8/21 negative cross, so I think I do what I've been doing, and stand aside and watch, I'm mainly "watching" $23 on GDX, "they", did a clear REJECT of that number on Friday.

John Carter at Simple Options, Sheridan Options, Option Alpha, Project Options, and others, recommend SELLING options into VOLATILE markets, using like Iron Condors, short strangles and straddles, short Flys, etc etc, so every week I will list the ETF's that have an IV PERCENTILE RANK above 50, that means they have Implied volatility in the upper 50% as compared to their typical IV.

IV PERCENTILE RANK ABOVE 50, listed from highest rank to lowest rank:
UUP, EWM

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: None on the daily chart, none on the weekly charts.

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(WILDERS 13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: NONE


DISCLAIMER NOTE: "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said or posted here ............

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