Saturday, November 18, 2017

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 11/17/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 50%, big winner in XRT.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: As I feared last week, with the huge number of sell signals I just knew the FED would be reading this and would make sure any one stupid enough to short against their wishes would be CRUSHED, only 12.5% winners.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners, FXE that is .....
4 Hour MACD buy signal: no signal
MACD Histogram sell signal: Another crushing, 28.5% winners.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 50% winners, FXI down 1.34%.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  100% winners, XLP that is.

Negative ROC(13) Cross: Another rip, athough better at 42.8% winners.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: NONE.
Close below T-Line: Hey, 60% winners, yeaaaaa ....
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: Hey, how bout that, 62.5% winners.

The multiple buy signals were 100% winners.
The multiple sell signals were horrible, 22% winners.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: ECH, EPI, EWL, EWW, EWZ, FXF, GDX, GLD, ILF, SLV, XIV, XLB

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWH, VXX, XLU

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: BND, EIDO, EIS, EZA, THD, XHB
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: EPHE, RSX
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: NONE
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: DIA, EWN

Positive ROC(13) Cross: FXF, GCC, GDX, RSX

Negative ROC(13) Cross: DIA, EWA

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: EIDO, EWM, EWT, EZA, GLD, XRT

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EWA, EWG, UUP

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIS, EZA, IWM, THD, TLT

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: SMH, TAN

"TTM SQUEEZE" : EWW, IWM

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, EZA, GDX, GLD, RSX

Multiple SELL signals: DIA, EWA

NOTES: Last week I said to myself about the QQQ:

"So, Waaa Laaaa, we have the "quick" two day sell off the last two days, just like magic! So, this is the buy of a life time, right?? Well, maybe for YOU, I guess, if that's what you feel you simply have to do, but, ME, I'm waiting for a "2B" top before I remotely think about shorting, that's where we pull back and relieve some of the over bought stress, then head back up and make slightly HIGHER HIGHS, with NEGATIVE divergences on like the RSI and MACD, and, THEN, start heading south. This would fit in that Thanksgiving to start of the year time frames."

Wow, I could spend a week talking about this stupid thing, what a crock of s..t! To start with look at the red arrow, Monday, we put on a Bullish engulfing bar, probably the single best bar you can get for the bulls, but in the red circle the volume is almost ZERO! Then we gap down the next two days, and put on identical long tailed doji bars, just HORRIBLE! The gap it on Thursday with the WMT and CSCO earnings and do an almost EXACT double top, in fact, in THEORY, it was the 2B as it actually made a HIGHER HIGH, then we open almost flat on Friday and then proceed to put on a red bar. Add to that we have the negative divergences in the RSI and MACD that we need, and you can screw Thanksgiving, all the parameters for "THE" top are in place NOW!!

So, what do "I" do?? Well, OBVIOUSLY, you buy the shit out of it, hahahahahahahaha! There's no stinking way the FED is going to allow a sell off to evolve, unless they are setting up the shorts for heart break Hotel. It's actually set up for a nice R/R trade as you would take the long over Fridays open, with a stop under Fridays open, that's right, a ZERO stop! Well, ok, if you are a traditionalist, you could put the stop under Fridays close, which is about 63 cents.
It don't matter of course as the FED will be in the futures Sunday night in the form of Goldman and JPM, giving them a Trillion "Digital" FAKE dollars with orders to buy the shit out of the futures and gap them up for Mondays open, so we can have another ZERO volume Monday, sigh, wad ever, good luck to you!

MORE NOTES: "As I remember" (that's a "disclaimer") Thanksgiving week is "usually" weak on Monday, then up on Tuesday and Wednesday, then Friday is MAD CAP SMALL CAP DAY, where Da Boyz move the crap out of selected small caps having fun with the left over Turkey gobblers having their fun on an off day from work when the markets are open.
So, multiple sell signals on the DIA, they actually look WORSE than the Q's, failing to make a double top or 2B, so short the DIA and buy the Q's!?? Buy the IWM??
GDX and GLD have a macro buy signal, as BND and TLT showed up with buys on the daily signals, and TLT had multiple buys on the weekly below, which means interest rates "SHOULD" go DOWN, which is GOOD for GLD, and, MAYBE, GDX! I say, "MAYBE", because GDX doesn't always follow or lead gold. Another good thing for gold is the UUP has a sell signal on the weekly signals below, and GLD and SLV had MULTIPLE weekly buy signals!

Of course, being some what of a pessimist I figure all the positivity on PM's means they will probably sell the shit out of them, sigh, wad ever, I really can't help myself as I watch "Goldfinger" a couple of times a week.

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 100% losers, all four.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: Bad, but not as bad as above, 54.5% winners.
MACD Histogram buy signal: Another bad week, 75% losers, only XLU was up.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 33.3% winners, that being EWU.
Positive ROC: 57% winners.
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  100% losers, sigh . 
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: NONE
Close below T-Line: 100% loser, that being JNK up .30% on the week.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: Another 100% loser, IYR down .45%.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: God, what a horrible week, 16.6% winners, that being EWD down 1.8%.
The multiple buy signals were 100% losers, as were the multiple sell signals, just wonderful.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EZA, FXE, GLD, SLV, THD, TLT, XLP, XRT

PPS sell signal for Monday: DBA, EPU, EWA, EWO, UUP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: SLV

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: ECH, EIRL, EWA, EWG, IYT, XLI

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EIS, FXE, GLD, SLV

Negative ROC(13) Cross: IDX, ILF

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: TLT

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIDO, XRT

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: ECH, EWK, EWN, EWU, IYT, RSX, VGK, XLV

"TTM SQUEEZE": EUFN, EWA, EZA, XME

Multiple buy signals: FXE, GLD, SLV, TLT, XRT

Multiple SELL signals: ECH, EWA, IYT

NOTES: XRT has multiple weekly signals and also a daily signal, but truth be told I'm not to wild about the daily chart:


It gapped over the bollingers on Friday, had HUGE volume, and has a date with the October highs around $42. The RSI is NOT over bought, AND, the MACD has just signaled a buy, so, MAYBE, a "reaction" off that high, a little pull back, then attack the high again with a buy over the October high!??
EWA has MULTIPLE SELL SIGNALS on the daily AND weekly charts, but the charts don't look that bad, we are heading for the high from 2014 around $23.50, it's not really over bought or any thing, but I follow Australia and I've been waiting for it to collapse, as they have a housing market WORSE than when we collapsed in 07', and with the China news this week that can't be good for the Aussies. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to short it, I've been waiting for it to collapse so I can BUY it at a decent, SINGLE DIGIT, in both price and P/E.

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80, in: the only signal is SMH on the weekly chart.

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

Friday, November 17, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 11/17/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NASI actually ended the week with a positive divergence, it wasn't positive on the day but with the markets down it is a positive divergence by staying FLAT. 

That wasn't the only positive breath on Friday, this is a partial of my "Market Monitor", the green means it was a positive divergence from the prior day, so the issues UP 4% were more than Thursday, as was the issues DOWN 4% were less than Thursday, there were fewer 52 wk lows and more 20 day highs, on the SP 500 there were more 20 day highs. 


The NYSE had  a lot of positive divergences on the PSAR and CCI buys and sells, the $NAAD's were loser than Thursday but with a NEGATIVE day they were POSITIVE by 584 issues, that's a VERY unusual stat, the lows were less than Thursday, the SPX A/D line was HIGHER than Thursday, the improving  NYSE CMF was HIGHER and the declining CMF was lower than Thursday. 
I have no idea if this will help the markets starting on Monday, as the FED likes to see very negative breath readings so they can sucker people into trying to short it and then take it to them, but in the days of Yore pre- central bank manipulations this was a good sign. 


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

We moved to three of my 12 major markets on sell signals from two last week, 20sma under 50sma, the $TRAN joined GLD and TLT, the 20SMA on TLT has turned up and could issue a new buy on Monday or Tuesday, which goes against what every one is saying is RISING interest rates, as my charts say that $TNX and $TYX FELL last week.  


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes"  got worse this week, we had our first major in a long time join the $BPDISC, $BPSTAP,  $BPHEAL and $BPGDM on sell, that would be the NasDOGS, as the $BPCOMPQ went on sell by NINE cents, hahahaha, I mean, HEY, a sell is a sell ...............


The sectors got worse, AGAIN, this week, with XLV joining XME, XLP and XRT on sell signals, but XRT has two huge green candles on it after Wally World went up 10% by beating last years earnings by TWO STINKING CENTS, and the ANAL-lyst estimates by THREE STINKING CENTS, they beat the revenue estimates because of a 50% rise in ON-LINE sales, so, are they going to take a huge hit and sell their trillions of dollars of stores and go totally ON-LINE to compete with Amazon????


Speaking of XRT it was the beeg wiener in my 81 markets this week, up 3.91%, all of it on Thursday and Friday, our best Major showed up on the first page, IWM up  1.28%,  with some of MY majors like GDX in the 15 spot at 1.2%, TLT in the seven spot at 1.85%, SLV was 6th and GLD 10th, the dollar was down on the week which helped the PM's out perform. We were exactly even on the week with 40 markets higher and 40 lower with one dead flat, ACWI.
 The NasDOGS were the only other positive major, QQQ up .18% for the week. then SPY DOWN .09% and the Big boys bringing up the rear, down .44%.


Eight markets closed on 20 day highs this week vs 3 last week,  all three from last week, EWA, EWS and FXI, closed much lower for the week. 

So naturally with the 20 day HIGHS all losers, the 20 day lows from last week were ALL winners, sigh, that is HIGHER on the week, the only one to finish lower was IYT, and that was only by nine cents.Only two closed on 20 day lows Friday, EWD and TUR.


So here's the winners of the losers, of which I have some calls on the BIG winner, OIH, hahaha, sigh, down a paltry 6.36% on the week, XLE right behind it, a lot of oil countries dropped with the lower oil like EWA, EWC, RSX, FXI dropped on some really lousy economic news which of course made our Corporate welfare FED led markets go higher on more free money hopes.


XLI, which is number 17 on that WORST list above, and which I LIKE because it has companies in it that do things I understand, unlike those worthless POS social media peices of crap, has pulled back for four days into the 20 SMA, which has contained the pull backs for the last six times going back to Feburary of 2016.
Of course, just by me mentioning this means it's going to crash through the 20 this time, so trade at your own risk.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500,after the joke with WMT and CSCO it just reinforces my rule of NOT doing earnings, especially retail


Ya know, I would defintely take a position in GE if they didn't have that stinking Frog train outfit, I'm tellin Ya the labor union issues in France will come back to burn them alive, if they unload that thing then, Yea, I'd consider it.
If you go back on a Monthly chart of  GE there's pretty strong support at $18 from 2012, BUTT, there's MUCH stronger support going back to 2009, 2010 and 2011 at $14, soooooooooo .....................................

Saturday, November 11, 2017

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 11/10/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: none
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 83% winners,only EWM was higher.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 66% winners, the only loser was AMLP.
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 66% losers, with only VXX higher.
MACD Histogram sell signal: This was 100% winners, EWQ that is.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 50% winners.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  100% winners, IGE that is.

Negative ROC(13) Cross: 50% winners.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: 50% winners.
Close below T-Line: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 60% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 100% winners, ECH that is.

The multiple buy signals were 100% winners.
The multiple sell signals were 80% winners with only EWM higher.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: VXX, XRT

PPS sell signal for Monday: ACWI, BND, EEM, EIDO, EPHE, EWJ, EWW, EWZ, EZA, GDX, GLD, ILF, SLV, TLT, VWO, XIV

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: FXE
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: NONE
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: BND, DBA, EEM, EZA, SMH, TUR, VWO
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: FXI, ILF

Positive ROC(13) Cross: XLP

Negative ROC(13) Cross: AMLP, EPU, EWI, EWP, EWT, GLD, THD

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EWI, EWQ, EZU, SLV, XLF

HULL MA(21) changed to green: FXE, XLV

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: BND, DBA, DIA, EWG, EWL, EWU, THD, TUR

"TTM SQUEEZE" : EWO, VWO

Multiple buy signals: FXE

Multiple SELL signals: BND, DBA, EEM, EZA, GLD, SLV, ILF, THD, TUR

NOTES: Last week I said to myself about the QQQ:

"So we "may" get a one or two day quick sell of fairly soon, then go up into Thanksgiving or some thing like that, maybe into the start of the year, before we really sell off."

So, Waaa Laaaa, we have the "quick" two day sell off the last two days, just like magic! So, this is the buy of a life time, right?? Well, maybe for YOU, I guess, if that's what you feel you simply have to do, but, ME, I'm waiting for a "2B" top before I remotely think about shorting, that's where we pull back and relieve some of the over bought stress, then head back up and make slightly HIGHER HIGHS, with NEGATIVE divergences on like the RSI and MACD, and, THEN, start heading south. This would fit in that Thanksgiving to start of the year time frames.
Remember, there is ZERO reason to sell, the trend is clearly UP as defined by the upward sloping 50 and 200 SMA's, and besides, Grandma Yelling has guranteed us that the markets will NEVER go down again in her life time!!!! Well, at least she's praying they don't, not with the ECB, JCB, the Swiz CB and others, not to mention our A-hole Federal Reserve, all printing worthless paper money and using it to buy worthless paper equities like FB and Twitter.

MORE NOTES: The signals had a lot of winners last week, the only loser was the MACD 4-hour BUY signals, but I have to say, I HATE THE HUGE NUMBER OF "SELL" SIGNALS THIS WEEK!! Don't get me wrong, I'm not double guessing the signals, the software doesn't give a damn what I think, it's just that like I've said many times these last few years, the A-Holes at the FED just LOVE IT when people get short, so they can pump a few billion of fake digital money into Goldman and JPM with orders to gap the shit out of the futures and crush any one stupid enough to be short!
Of course, by my saying that this will probably, FINALLY, be the week that it works and the majors end up down 20% on the week, sigh, wad ever, be careful out there.

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: NONE
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 87% winners, with only RSX higher on the week.
MACD Histogram buy signal: NONE
MACD Histogram sell signal: 71% winners, EWA and UNG were higher.
Positive ROC: Big losers, both EWL and TLT.
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  75% losers, only EUFN was lower. 
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: NONE
Close below T-Line: 50% winners, GDX was higher.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 66% winners, XRT was higher on the week.
No multiple buy signals were a wash, the sell signals were 75% winners, only GDX was higher.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: IGE, IYR, OIH, UNG

PPS sell signal for Monday: ECH, EWK, EWN, EWQ, EWU, EZA, IWM, THD, VGK, XLF, XLI

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWA, IYR, UNG, XLU

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EWU, SLV, XME

Positive ROC(13) Cross: DBA, EUFN, EWL, EWM, EWZ, IYR, XRT

Negative ROC(13) Cross: GDX, GLD, SLV, TLT

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: JNK

HULL MA(21) changed to green: IYR

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EIS, EWD, EWL, JNK, VWO, XME

"TTM SQUEEZE": GCC, XLP

Multiple buy signals: IYR has FOUR buy signals, so sell the shit out of it, LOL!

Multiple SELL signals: JNK, SLV, XME (has three signals)

NOTES: See the notes above .......... it's interesting to see JNK show up, if you remember back in 2007 it topped in APRIL while the general markets topped in October, it's been selling off for three weeks, it had a HUGE up day Friday, 18 cents, LOL, which is huge for it, I assume the A-Hole FED was getting worried and told Goldman and Da Boys to buy some and make it look better.


You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80, in: DIA, EWJ, SMH, TAN, XLK on the weekly charts, AGAIN (as in DIA, SMH and XLK)! Plus NONE on the daily charts.

SO, we have the three OTM call signals last week repeat again this week as OVER BOUGHT, DIA, SMH and XLK, which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

If you had used the "Expected Move" feature in TOS, The DIA stayed within it the last two weeks, the SMH closed above it two weeks ago by 46 cents and stayed inside of it this week, and the XLK closed outside it by TEN cents two weeks ago and stayed inside it this week, so they would have all been wieners, eeeerrrrrrr, winners.

The high for the "EXPECTED MOVE" for calls this week is:

DIA- 236.80, 237 C bid .04 ask .16, HORRIBLE
SMH - 104.79, 105 C bid .20, ask .30, BETTER
XLK - 64.39, 64.50 C bid .03 ask .09, HORRIBLE

SMH is obviously the best spread, those are lousy spreads in the other two, I certainly wouldn't want to sell them for that RISK, however, if you think they are going to go lower you could go out a MONTH, December 15 expiration get 1.07 Bid 1.30 Ask on the DIA 237 C, and treat it as a WEEKLY expiration, IE buy it back NEXT Friday, OR, buy it back if you pick up like 50% of it during the week at any time. If you hold it for the month you start getting into ADJUSTMENTS, which is all right if you know what you are doing.
If it goes against you, well, you better have a PLAN for a stop or adjustment during the next week.
NOTE: when I say "HORRIBLE", I'm not talking about whether the stock trades well or not, I'm talking about the WIDE spreads in the options, AND, you aren't getting diddly fricking squat for the amount of RISK you could be taking. 

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

blogger templates | Make Money Online