Saturday, January 13, 2018

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 1/12/2018 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

NOTE: I have not finished testing for the "new" systems, I hope to get it done over the weekend.

Daily signals last week:


PPS BUY SIGNAL: 100% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 50% winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: NONE
MACD Histogram sell signal: NONE.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 50% winners.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  NONE

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: NONE
Close below T-Line: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

The multiple buy signals were NONE.
The multiple sell signals were NONE.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EIRL, EWA, EWG, EWT, FXF, GCC, GDX, SLV, TUR

PPS sell signal for Monday: NONE

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: XRT
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: AAXJ, EIDO, EWL, EWT, FXF, GDX, GLD, IDX
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: XIV
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: NONE

Positive ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to green: FXE, FXF

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

"TTM SQUEEZE" : NONE

Multiple buy signals: EWT, FXF, GDX

Multiple SELL signals: NONE, ZERO, NADA, ZILCH

NOTES:
Great week last week, nothing less than 50% winners, mainly because 64% of the systems had NO signals last week, hahahaha, woooo hoooo ...........
I don't like the big number of buys on the PPS and four hour MACD, but of course I didn't like the massive buy numbers last week but for some reason Mr. Market just completely ignored my cautious attitued.
Just a thought, but the buy signals on FXE and FXF, plus multiple sell signals on the dollar vs other currencies, "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", mean the dollar will go lower, which is, "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", be good for GOLD, and thus GDX, and thus thus SLV ................. not good for bonds, etc etc .........

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 82% winners, but a good week as we had 17 signals.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 80% winners with 15 signals.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% winners, all one of them, TLT
Positive ROC: 100% winners with 10 signals
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  100% winners with  signal IYR. 
Close above T-Line: 80% winners.
Close below T-Line: 100% winners with one signal, XLU.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 86% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE.

The multiple buy signals were 88.8% winners out of 18 signals ..
Multiple SELL signals: NONE.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: UNG

PPS sell signal for Monday: NONE

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: AAXJ, EEM, EUFN, EWG, EWK, EWP, EWQ, EWZ, EZU, FXE, FXI, ILF, RSX, UNG XLV

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: UUP

Positive ROC(13) Cross: AMLP

Negative ROC(13) Cross: EWT, EWZ, SLV, TLT

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: EWK, EWP

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: IYR, UUP

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EPU, EWD, EWK, GCC, RSX

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: TLT

"TTM SQUEEZE": NONE

Multiple buy signals: AAXJ, EWK, EWP, RSX, UNG

Multiple SELL signals: TLT, UUP 

NOTES:
Same comments as above, especially as regards the MACD buys ..........


You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts as the FED wants to break value investors and force them to be momentum day traders, wooo hoooo ......

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: ACWI, DIA, EIS, EUFN, EWJ, EWK, EWO, EWU, IGE, IYT, OIH, RSP, SPY, USO, VTI, VWO, XLE, XLI, XLY.
On the weekly charts: ACWI, DIA, EWJ, EWO, IYT, RSP, SPY, THD, VTI, XHB, XLB, XLI, XLY - the ACWI, DIA, RSP, SPY and VTI are on the list for the FIFTH week in a row, hahahahahaha, so, see the next two statements:

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

FOR "LONG TERM INWESTORS" ONLY: every one, and I mean, EVERY ONE, knows that millions of "GURU's" have made MILLIONS of tests about the best long term "trading" strategy, and they all agree that it's buying above a MONTHLY 10 EXP and selling below it .............. well, ok, I tested SIX different averages over the last 20 years, both simple and exponential, and the 10 EXP made the most money on the SPY, although the other five were all fairly close, and I would like to state that testing any thing over the last 20 years is probably one of the best testing periods EVER, as it includes two huge bear markets and several minor bear markets, and one of the craziest bull markets in history, so with this in mind I will include a new "LONG TERM INWESTORS" note every week, and here are the buy signals for this week: AMLP, EWD, EWP, FXF, SLV

The only one I'm interested in is SLV, as silver is not only a PM metal but also an industrial metal, IE it's AC/DC, and should replace copper as a more diversifed "DOCTOR" than copper.
SLV doesn't go back 20 years so I had to us the /SI futures for the test:


So the test ran from 6/1/1998 through this week, and if you would have bought and sold a lousy little 100 contracts for each long and short signal you would have made $6,820,000, I mean, WOOOOOO HOOOOOO ....................... of course in the red box you might notice that you were DOWN almost FIVE MILLION DOLLARS by 6/1/2009, in the lower green circle on the chart, BUTT, luckily, it you made it through the little draw down you would have made 7.5 MILLION over the next two years to the upper green circle on the chart.
Of course, if you can't afford that draw down, or even the lousy $400,000 maintenance required, you might want to trade, like, ONE contract ................

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said or posted here ............

Friday, January 12, 2018

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 1/12/2018

(click on image for larger view, I hope)
(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

Well, with this record setting week I'm glad to at least see my major markets dropped to three on sell signals, 20sma below 50sma, $USD and IYR remain on sell and are joined by TLT, which went on a sell by 8 cents.
I have no charts above this as there is nothing to show, the breath indicators remained the same and on buy, buy and more buy. 


Only two Bullish Percent indexes remain on sell signals, the $BPINFO and $BPGDM, both the 20sma's have turned higher and are probably headed up to make it a concensus on the bullish percents.


The XLU remains the only sector on a sell signal, again. 


We dropped off the record of last week as "only" 66 of my 81 markets I keep track of were higher this week just like the major indexes, KRE was the leader with XLF in 15th spot as both JPM and WFC missed earnings Friday morning, so I guess that investors figured this was a mistake that would be corrected by the end of the day. Our favorite consumer product, USO, was in third spot up 4.55% with OIH right in front of it, and though our markets continue to blast higher for the second week in a row none of the majors made the first page.

They showed up right away on the second page though with the winner, IWM, in 23rd spot up 2.18%, DIA right behind at 2.05%, then the SPY at 1.65%, with the NasDOGS actually being DOGS, QQQ "only" up 1.59%, or,  looking at "probably" an 87.88% gain for the year if they keep up this doggie performance.


Just like last week we set another new record with the number of markets closing on 20 day highs at 62,  up from a paultry 52 last week, hahahahaha, AND, we had a new record on the Turtle trade as 45 of the 52 from last week were higher on the week. I'm kind of disgusted that 7 stocks finished lower on the week, fricking DOGS ................

We even got aother very unusual winning rate from last week on the 20 day lows, 100%, as IYR and XLU both closed on lows and were lower for the week, they were joined by UUP. We will see if IYR and XLU can make it three weeks in a row. 


Not only did IYR and XLU set that 20 day low record but they were the worst of the week, even ahead of VXX, and THAT's REALLY saying some thing. With the markets flying it's interesting to see the loser's going to 15 from only 5 last week, SMH was a loser this week as well as noted in the next section. 


Quite a lot of different industries in the SP 500 winners this week, Da Boyz are rotating around to keep the dream alive, 349 were higher on the week, which is actually lower than last week.


Here's the losers, with all that red up there I draw your attention to the 3rd worst performer of the week, MU, every performance column on it is green accept for the last week.


It's pulled back, and it sitting inside of a nice triangle, AND, you have a nice tight stop as you OBVIOUSLY would not want to hang around if that thing broke below that lower trend line.
With that big run up from August if it can break above the upper trend line and make new highs it, COULD, POSSIBLY, look to make an "EQUAL MOVE", and POSSIBLY target some thing like $62, maybe ..............

Saturday, January 06, 2018

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 1/5/2018 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

NOTE: This the last week for the systems as you see them below, I will be eliminating some of the worst performers and bringing new WORSE performers, hahahahaha, when I started doing this it was to show that the standard systems in TOS "DON'T" work, well, some of them do, in fact, one system worked 78% of the time, that was the WEEKLY 8/21 EMA cross to the UPSIDE, well, guess what, the markets went UP this past year, right?! So it should stinking work, but when I go back 20 plus years years it loses stinking money out the ying yang, but a 8/21 SIMPLE cross with buys and sells works great, so go figure, I would have never guessed it. 11 of the 26 various signals on the various time frames had winning percentages of UNDER 50%, so they will be gone, and new UNDER 50% will be added, hahahahahaha (haha means I'm just kidding), but of course I will go by the winning percentage when I combine BOTH the buy and sell sides, so I have a lot of work to do.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 100% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 100% LOSERS
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: NONE
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% LOSERS.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 100% LOSERS.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  50% winners,

Negative ROC(13) Cross: 100% LOSERS.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: 100% winners.
Close below T-Line: 100% losers
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% LOSERS
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 100% LOSERS

The multiple buy signals were NONE.
The multiple sell signals were 100% LOSERS.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: UNG

PPS sell signal for Monday: BND, GCC

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: DIA, VXX
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: NONE
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: NONE
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: TLT, XME

Positive ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

"TTM SQUEEZE" : NONE

Multiple buy signals: NONE, ZERO, NADA, ZILCH

Multiple SELL signals: NONE, ZERO, NADA, ZILCH (ALTHOUGH, you, "COULD", say, that BND and TLT are the same things)

NOTES:
It was feast (as in "LONG"), or it was famine (as in "SHORT"), but, unfortunately, we had 10 LONG signals and 29 short signals, 37 if you count the multiple signals. so unless you took quick stops on the shorts you had a rather large draw down, like, if you took 8 cent stops you would have only lost $10 on 100 share lots, but of course the bid/ask spread on a lot of them are more than the 8 cents. 
The main feature for the coming week is the word "NONE", as there is a dearth of signals to be had, which, based on the results last week, is a god send ...........

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 100% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 100% losers.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% LOSERS
Positive ROC: 80% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  50% winners
Close above T-Line: 100% winners.
Close below T-Line: 100% LOSERS.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE.

The multiple buy signals were 100% winners ..
Multiple SELL signals: NONE.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: AAXJ, EPU, EWD, EWH, EWI, EWK, EWM, EWP, EWS, EWT, EWW, EWZ, FXI, JNK, RSX, SMH, UNG

PPS sell signal for Monday: BND, GCC

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: ECH, EWA, EWC, EWL, EWO, EWS, FXF, GCC, GDX, GLD, SLV, TUR, UNG, VGK, VWO

Negative MACD Histogram Cross:TLT

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EUFN, EWI, EWK, EWP, EWZ, FXF, ILF, OIH, RSX, UNG

Negative ROC(13) Cross: IYR

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: EWT, GCC, ILF, TUR, UNG

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: XLU

HULL MA(21) changed to green: AAXJ, EEM, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWQ, EWW, EWZ, EZU, FXI, GDX, ILF, SLV, UNG

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

"TTM SQUEEZE": RSX

Multiple buy signals: AAXJ, EWC, EWH, EWI, EWK, EWP, EWS, EWT, EWZ, FXI, FXF, GCC, GDX, ILF, RSX, SLV, TUR, UNG

Multiple SELL signals: NONE, one unusual thing is GCC has a sell on the daily PPS but two buys on the weekly. 

NOTES:
The weekly signals were much, much, MUCH better, 17 winners and two losers on the longs and one winner and four losers on the shorts, the over all result was the systems still lost money but the weekly made up some of it.  


You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: DIA, EWO, UNG, VWO, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLY, these are the first over bought RSI's on the daily charts since 11/03/2017.
On the weekly charts: ACWI, DIA, EIRL, EWJ, RSP, SPY, THD, UNG, VTI, XHB, XLB, XLY - the ACWI, DIA, RSP, SPY and VTI are on the list for the FOURTH week in a row, hahahahahaha, so, see the next two statements:

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

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