Watch List for 11/9/09

I could find virtually ZERO bullish bar type reversals in the Russell 1000 that I was interested in. I hate the outfit, BX that is, however, I find the PREVIOUS day's bar very interesting, as it opened higher, and then took out the entire previous week, or previous five days, and then closed higher on the day. This of course, led to fridays big mooooove, you are obviously late to the party now, BUT, big reversal's like that "can" lead to further gains. The problem is the stop, of course, the nearest thing to a true stop on some thing like this would have to be under those lows, down in the 12.50 "area", meaning you reduce your risk like crazy on this thing, meaning, you take a smaller share size.
That's about all I could find for longs, other than the one's I mentioned a few days ago, which are still in play.

APC has a bearish reversal bar on it, it opened lower, tried to take out the previous days highs, and failed, it "could" see further weakness down to about 62.50, it's prior support on that 50dma. The stop is ALWAYS over the prior days highs, or, where ever you feel comfortable. Others showing a similar setup include SWN, ACI, IRF (big one!), and RRC.

UHS has struggled the past week, putting on a wide range doji bar on friday, it's right on the verge of getting a 20-50dma bearish golden cross, the risk is very clear, over the highs of last week, around 58, and "I" would be outta there, the target could be the gap fill area around the 53-52 "area". Hard to say what the healthcare stocks will do tomorrow with the weekend news.

CPO has a convoluted Avalanche setup, bouncing off support for a few days, flagging up to it's 50dma, and failed to get above it, it "could" be good to short, with a target back down at 27.50 support, and a stop over that 50dma.

Wow, when is Yale Hirsch going to update the "Stock Trader's Almanac"?? It's always nice when some one "quantifies" your "feelings", for as I've talked about, it's sure seemed to me the "seasonal" plays have been turned around. Schaeffers http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/ , did a study, in their Monday Morning update, comparing the last five years to the prior 30 years, in terms of six month periods in the "markets". It's obvious that the "worst" time to be "invested" in the markets now, is the September to March time frame, while the "best" time to be "invested", is the March to September period, quite a change from the old reliable November to April-May period. That was, of course, before the internet hit it's hey day, and the invention of more hedge funds than mutual funds, and quants, etc etc etc. As soon as the "GAMING", doesn't work any more, the periods will probably revert to their original studies, IE, rather than "GAME THE SEASONALS", "they", will actually start GAMING the "GAME THE SEASONALS", hahahaha! Wad ever.

BreakPoint Trades http://bit.ly/nvcM , sent out their weekend update tonight, and because they have so many WORLD WIDE members, they did a special look at the various World Stock Markets. You Know, after going over the whole bunch, and there was a BUNCH, it's STUPID! What I mean is, why stinking "INVEST", in Vietnam or some thing, when all those other market's look EXACTLY the same as our markets??? The only difference is the "absolute" return, that is, some of them MOVE higher, more than our markets do, but they also do the reverse, and move MUCH lower than our markets do, when we all go down together, I don't get it, obviously. I'd rather just lose my money here, than lose it to them.

Yo, Rita, you want in on this???

Weekly MSW Swing Trade Update for 11/09/09

EWI, Elliott Wave International, is having their yearly "FREE" (the magic word) week, you can "try" and get into it here, http://www.elliottwave.com/ , I say "TRY", because even I've been having problems trying to get into it, they never told me any thing about it, I found out from some other bloggers. You'll have to sign up for a free account, if you don't have one, then try and figure out how to get into the area where the free week is being done, which is the subscriber's area, they have a new secret password and user name, I'd give it out here, but that would probably, for one thing, be illegal on my part (IE, law suit), also, underhanded, devious, slimey, crooked, etc etc etc, you know, much like Congress passing the single biggest peice of legislation for the last 50 years, over a weekend, WITHOUT READING IT, and against the wish's of a majority of the American people, sigh, wad ever, it's not like it's going to have an effect on my life, my children's life, or my grandchild's life for the next 100 years or wad ever.

ANYWAY, you don't have to go to EWI, since it's free and open to anyone, I can tell you right now what they are saying. EWI has been working this bear market as a FIVE WAVE bear, with the March bottom as Wave 1, and the current rally as Wave 2, some of the other Elliott Waver's, like The Elliott Wave Lives On and BreakPoint Trades, http://bit.ly/nvcM , are calling for an A-B-C bear market, with the March low being the A wave, the current rally being the B wave, and then we get the C wave DOWN, to complete the bear market, I don't know what Robert McHugh's count is, Robert McHugh , I jsut know that in his advertisement's he's been talking bearish for weeks. Wad Ever, it don't stinking matter, they are ALL the same, it's a BEAR MARKET RALLY, and it's just a matter of interpretation as to when the current rally ends, and the confirmation of when the final leg's down get under way.
EWI is banking their whole reputation on THIS BEING THE END, they are throughly convinced the TOP is in, the other two are pretty convinced as well. The whole KEY to this interpretation, is the BEST PART, for they ALL agree, that if we break to NEW HIGHS, IE, over the October highs, THEN, they will have to revise their Wave structures, to reflect a new count.

The weekly chart of the SPY above, is my simpleton little chart, with the "current" counts. I will say right now, that some of the "indicator's" are supporting the possibility that we could be in trouble, as all three of them have been diverging to the down side, against the last October rally, and as I have mentioned, both of the Telechart TSV and MS indicator's have also been diverging, and both the MACD and MACD Histogram signal lines have given a sell signal, as well as the STOCH. EWI, in their current short term update, has a very clean five wave count for the rally the last week, they have a couple of time frames on it, like the 60min and the 240min chart's, but their bottom line is that either Wave 5, the TOP, is in, OR, we could have one last little pop, like the next couple of days, before the final roll over starts, but either way, their mind is made up, IT'S OVER, and the only thing that will change it, is a confirmed break over the October highs.

PERSONAL STRATEGY:
Ok, I'm done, I've had enough of the bull shit above, wad ever, I don't give a damn if the market goes up, or DOWN, all I care about is how can I make money, and what my RISK is going to be, to do THAT, and RIGHT NOW, the RISK is just to high for me to do ANY THING, other than, like I've said over the last couple of weeks, just STAND ASIDE, and see how this plays out. If I thought the market was a peice of junk LAST WEEKEND, the BS rally this week, just made it exponentially WORSE, as the daily chart is just AWFUL! I mean, you COULD say, it looks GOOD, as we rallied every day this week, hahahahaha, but the volume went down every day, other than the miserable gap and crap day on the FOMC day, and all we did was rally up, and STOP, around the September highs. So, in actuality, if we wallow around this week at those September highs, we "COULD", start setting up that Head and Shoulders I talked about earlier in the week, that would be really COOL, for unlike the last H & S in June and July, when I said we'd break it to the UPSIDE, I think we might actually have a possiblity of breaking this one to the down side, which would get me short. As far as trying to get long, welp, that's obvious, to me at least, I'll want to see us break out over the October highs, which right now are only about THREE lousy points away, 110 on the SPY as compared to where we are now, 107. To get LONG, I'd want to see my typical setup, that is, we break out, and then come back to TEST, the break out area, that's the only way I'd do it, ALTHOUGH, I'd hate to think I miss the move to 1200 by NOT getting in, as there's nothing but clear air up to 1200, once we break out over the October highs. That's brings up another really good setup that could occur, and that would be a double top at the October highs, and I'd be looking for some kind of BOF, break out failure bar, to happen at those highs, the best bar would be a key reversal bar, where we open with a gap down, and then take out the October high, and then turn it around, and close either under the prior day's close, or even the prior day's lows, which would also setup a bearish enguling bar.

So, that's what I mean by STANDING ASIDE, I consider the market JUNK right now (technically), BUT, I would consider any of the senario's above, a reason to start sitting up in my chair, and MOOOOOVE! Adding to JUNK, and RISK, is the EVENT RISK we have right now, for, number one, who knows how we are going to react to the crap coming out of Washington. We may react poorly in the futures tonight, or tomorrow morning before the open, which would get the PPT in a fricking panic, like on friday after the pay roll report, when they blasted us up out of the open. Plus, I don't know if you know this, but the AAII Investor sentiment report on friday was horrendous, an EXTREME bearish reading, which is usually a contrary signal, meaning the PPT could use that, plus the DC crap, to try and suck in as many shorts as they can, to give some fire power to some "CONDUIT" (IE, GS, MS, JPM, BAC, etc etc) induced short covering.

Wad ever, I'm just going to continue to trade intraday until the market work's itself out, and work with the small amount of special situation stocks I currently hold, like, GE, hahahahaha, the ROACHEY upgrade by those two "houses" on friday, certainly put me in a dither, as I had a 50% hedge on it, that I couldn't unload until after the open, hahaha, sigh.

The weekly MSW update is just as a "courtesy", the commentary is limited as I don't have to much interest in any of them:

The weekly MSW swing trade's for the ETF's came up with 6 new buys and 16 new shorts, not many signals, but after that blow out last week, there's not that many left to generate a signal on, hahahaha!

The daily ETF hardly came up with any signals, TZA is a mistake, I missed it when I put the short ETF's in a seperate folder, which, speaking of that, I ran the signals through the short ETF's, below, just to take a look:

I'm kind of surprised at the lack of signals, but of course, there's not that many short ETF's, but it's definitely leaning to the bullish side, eeeeeerrrrrr, I guess that's BEARISH, with only a few short signals, one of which is the Euro, which brings up some thing I noticed this week, it generated signals on almost all the Euro ETF's, and what's bad, is that it's kind of split between shorting it or buying it, IE, it's CONFUSED, which tell's me we could have some Dollar volatility coming up.

The MSW came up with a bunch of signals on the Russell 3000 weekly chart scan, it still has an over whelming number of new shorts as compared to new buys, but it did come up with a large number of new buy signals this week. The entire list is above, pick your poison.

In some what of an upset (going along with college football this weekend), it came up with a lot more new buy signals than short signals on the daily Russell 3000 chart scan, the complete list is above.

Weekly Sector And Industry Money Flows

Not much to surprising about the sector money flows the past week, with GOLD making all time highs, you would expect to see GLD leading the pack. I am a little surprised at the negativity in bonds, but with the markets rising this week you would expect to see the risk trade being lightened up on, as evidenced by the poor showings in consumer staples and utilities as well. I can't help but think, that with Mom and Pop piling into bond funds, the final nail in their investing live's will come pretty quickly, when eventually the bond market start's to price in the emminent default of US Treasuries, sending yields back to the 1980 highs in the 18-20% range, and crushing bond prices.
I have that chart of the Q's up, to show the continuing divergence in TSV against price, the last time this happened was the divergence in TSV in the May to June tops, just before we had the June to July pull back, even MS has a little divergence in it this time, in that June to July period it actually made a higher high, to counter act the poor TSV. Of course, the earnings fabricated short squeeze ballon saved us in July, and since earnings are almost done now, I have no idea what Da Boyz are going to fabricate now, to drive us higher into January, I know their Street appointed TV shrill's are already trying to convince the nonbelivers still sitting on the side lines, that this is truly the single most undervalued market in history, that is, if you use some thing like FORWARD PROJECTED NON GAAP INFLATION ADJUSTED OFF BALANCE SHEET HIDDEN NOTES THE CONSUMER IS GOING TO SPEND OUT THE YING YANG OVER THE NEXT YEAR type of parameters to arrive at some low P/E to use as your, "See, SEE", argument. Wad ever, it will be awhile before S & P comes out with their final, ACTUAL, number's, I'll be interested to see if the ACTUAL earnings over the past year get the P/E under 100.

The industry money flow winners were almost all M & A and earnings dominated, as a single large player can move the entire industry, like MG330, Automotive, hahahahahaha, isn't Ford the only one left in that group?? Sporting Activities wouldn't be related to the world series would it?? Who played in that thing any way??

The industry loser, "winner", was Drug Stores, all because of CVS, what, there's only like three companies in that industry, right?? The Regional Banks continue to show up on the loser's list, and now I notice Savings and Loans jumped almost to the bottom of the list, HMMMMM, let's see, the FED, and the GOVERNMENT, have mandated that you receive ZERO interest in your savings accounts, IN FACT, you probably have to PAY to SAVE, as they have some fee included, so why would SAVINGS and LOANS be showing such poor money flows, hahahaha! STOP TRYING TO SAVE MONEY YOU ROACH'S, GET OUT THERE AND SPEND SPEND SPEND, YOUR UNCLE SAM NEED'S WHAT LITTLE MONEY YOU HAVE LEFT!

A lot of the money flow winner's in the Russell 1000 this past week were M&A and earnings related, I high lighted the chart of AMLN because, OBVIOUSLY, some thing is going on, as it got a big money flow surge, but the stock did nothing, it must have some FDA trial results coming up, IF NOT, well, like I said, some thing's going on. On a WEEKLY chart basis, most of the bottom half of that list look interesting, NEM is interesting, as it regards it's relationship with GOLD, as it's DIVERGING, IE, GOLD is making all time highs, and yet NEM is not even close to that, it's saying some thing, I'm not quite sure what it is.

I put that weekly chart of DF up, with the Russell 1000 money flow loser's, because I was pretty amazed at how money has been consistently flowing OUT of this thing for the last year, well, actually, the last TWO years. I'm kind of surprised to see FLR on the list, obviously the famous Pelosi SPENDING, eeeeeeerrrrrrrr, STIMULUS package, is not finding it's way to the job creation area's yet. Most of the loser's were earnings related, I would think that the weak flow out of KFT would be "investor's" quietly taking a little off the table, until they see the details of the new Cadbury hostile bid.

Pay "ROLL" ME!!

The circled bar is the "actual" open of the markets, this is the ES futures with the over nights, ANYWAY, SUCK CITY!!! The first bar actually went down a little, then it was adios MF'er's, taking us right back up to the over night highs, where we were right before the payroll release, and then just shit around all day, never able to get over that level again.
Now, mind you, the markets finished UP, so, it makes for some fun when the yakking yelling heads, when asked about why OIL was down, said, well, oil is down because of the poor payroll report, and the possibility of reduced demand!!?? When asked why GOLD was UP, while the dollar was UP (I thought the "market" goes UP, when the dollar is DOWN??), they said it's the increased demand for gold as risk increase's in the equity markets because of the poor payroll report!!??? When asked why BONDS were UP, they replied that the bond market was up because it was seeing increased risk to the economic recovery, because of the poor payroll report!!!???? "They" had NO explanation for the dollar being UP.

Oh, yea, that's right, the markets finished UP, didn't they!! Hahahaha, I'm telling ya, well, I ain't telling ya, other than it SUCKS!! When asked why the markets finished UP, well, they had NO explanation for that.

You can tell of course, I was listening to Brian Westbury, and Stan Stoval of S&P.

6:35AM: Hmmmmm, Da Boyz sprung the trap just before the release of the numbers, the ROACH's!!! The payroll number's themselves were a little mixed, as the -190,000 is worse than the -175,000 "expected", but it's still a lot better than it was a while back, HOWEVER, the unemployment RATE jumped four tenths of a percent to 10.2%, a huge leap!

The interesting part, to me at least, was the trap Da Boyz sprung on that 5 minute chart at the bottom. Since Da Boyz run the government, I mean by that Goldman, Merrill, JPM, BAC MS, etc etc etc, they KNEW EXACTLY what the number was going to be, and they ran the future's up to the high's for the over night session, on the bar RIGHT BEFORE THE RELEASE, IE, they sucked in as many, aaaaahhhhh, SUCKERS, as they could, giving the impression that the people in the "KNOW", were piling in on an anticipated GOOD number, hahahahahahahaha!!!! SIGH, this is EXACTLY, why I don't even REMOTELY, think about trying to game the "NEWS"!

ANYWAY, I find the daily chart of the future's, at the top, interesting, as we are putting on a BOF, a break out failure bar, on the daily chart, making new rally highs, and failing to hold them. ANYWAY, I have NO IDEA what, "THEY", have in store for us the rest of the day, we are currently down even MORE, this is 6:49 right now, if we continue to dump into the open, "THEY", could be setting up another trap, with a "BLAST OFF" after the open, THE ROACH'S!! Sigh, god I hate this newsy shit, anyway, it goes with out saying, that I'd be a little, aaaaahhhhh, CAREFUL, out there today.

Good luck.

7:05: On a personal note, DEPENDING ON THE ACTION JUST BEFORE THE OPEN, I will be uncovering the short legs on my positions, right after the open, IE, take the hedge's OFF. Naturally, my mouse finger will be bouncing like crazy, ready to put them back on in an instant, but if we continue down right into the open, I'll feel more comfortable taking them off, HOWEVER, if we get some kind of little counter trend rally going into the open, then, NO, I won't take them off, I'll hold on to them, in anticipation of a TEST of the premarket lows, after the open. By a test, I mean I would like to see them TAKE OUT the premarket lows, and then maybe one or two bars later, rebound back up, some thing like that.

Anyway, it will probably get my attention this morning, hahahaha!

SWINE FLU

I've been a little under the wheather, I don't know if it's the swine flu or what, stinking stuff! I'm hoping to be back in action, maybe tomorrow morning, for sure by the weekend.
Don't freak out tomorrow morning if the payroll report comes in much worse than expected, I've been hearing that we may get one of those "seasonal" adjustment thingey's. Wad ever.

One notable "missing in action" member of the NasDogs today was RIMM, interesting.

11/4/09

"Crash Your Clunkers", hahaha, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091104/ap_on_bi_ge/us .

You know, I hate to even read stuff like this, http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1578-JP-Morgan-And-Alabama-Swaps.html , because it drives me to stinking drink!! I mean, well, it's just disgusting, not only are the fricking CROOKS NOT in jail, but they get BILLIONS in corporate welfare, and what we get for it, is the honor of being first in line to get the big one shoved up our rear ends. THE GOVERNMENT SUCKS!

2:20pm: AAAAAARRRRGGGGGUUUUUHHHHH! I meeced eeet! The reaction, in the white circle, was really lousy, no clear trend, the FIRST reaction was actually to the UPSIDE, BUT, the first candle closed to the down side, so I guess you would say the reaction was down, wad ever, that's what it ended up being. Anyway, we get what was really the COUNTER rally, which took us to new highs on the day, then we pulled back, and that's when I meeced eeet, in the yellow circle, I mean, I can't deal with a drop off like that, we were sitting on top of that 20ma, and I thought we'd hold it, sigh, good fricking luck with THAT ONE! With my "systems", I would have to get a fall through the 20ma, AND THEN A COUNTER RALLY BACK UP TO IT, that stalls, and THEN I'd short it, like I will tomorrow, after we rally back up to it. CSCO is saving the market right now, as they blew away earnings in the after hours, beating by the proverbial penny.

The daily chart is a zippo, absolutely nothing I can see, the IWM looks a lot worse, BONDS, in the form of the TLT, took a "surprising" drop today, IE, interest rates went up. I will be a huge bond buyer, when we drop like another 8-10 points on that thing.

I may be an Old Goat, but I sure as hell ain't no mountain goat!

UH OH, GULP!!!!! Hahahahaha, some one is already talking about the "possibility" of a coming Head and Shoulder's setup, the name of the individual will be withheld to protect the not so innocent. HEY, it's not that it doesn't make perfect sense to me, but, it just seem's a little, aaaaahhhhhh, premature, at this point. The neckline of course, is my big yellow line.

The Challanger payroll report came in worse than expected, the ADP payroll report came in worse than expected, I heard at least three big outfit's yesterday, last night and this morning, talking about more layoff's, the result is the markets are BLOWING fricking up, up almost 1%, gold and oil are flying, bonds are crashing with interest rates going up, and the dollar down.
If this can hold up into the open, I will be taking profits in that IWM trade IMMEDIATELY after the open.
The FED crash's the party today at 2:15pm ET with the release of the FOMC "statement", like, it's going to be any different than the last ten releases. ANYWAY, the release create's one of my favorite patterns, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/42909.html , that's a prior description of it, basically we get an initial move in one direction or the other, we then get a counter move that can be equal to or greater than the first move, we then move back in the direction of the original move, here's a better picture of it, http://cluelessqtrader.blogspot.com/2007/06/fomc.html .